Fight-the-Streets said:
Why so "pessimistic/doubtful"? |
The minimum of 150M actually applies for end of 2024, not for lifetime. By end of March 2024 (= FY24) the Switch will be at 142M shipped (or very close to it). The Switch coming of a FY shipping more than 16M (yes, mostly likely the forecasted 15.5mil for FY24 will be surpassed) and having another holidays all for itself, it is very unlikely that it will ship less than 10M in FY25. Therefore, by end of March 2025, the Switch will be at a minimum of 152M (or very close to it). From then on out and whenever the Switch 2 will come out in 2025 (March, April, May,...), I mean, the Switch will not just stop completely to sell. Even if Nintendo "kills off" the Switch (which is very unlikely but howsoever...), an absolute bare minimum of two full years of production after Switch 2 comes out is guaranteed.I said 150M is the absolute minimum, definitely not what I'm expecting.
Even though it's highly unlikely, there still could be that possibility that the rumors are wrong and Nintendo still goes ahead and launches Switch 2 in 2024, which in a worse case scenario wouldn't give the Switch 1 more holiday season to sell. Plus there's still that small possibility that sales for Switch falls off the cliff once Switch 2 launches. We saw it with the PS4 even though it was super successful it only sold 4M more after the PS5 launched mainly due to shortages(which the Switch 1 could deal with as well) and the price of PS4 being so close to PS5 which could also happen to Switch 1. In a worse case scenario, Switch 1 would end at 147M by the end of 2024 and sells only 4-5M after that if Switch 2 launches in 2024. That's why on the extremely off chance I'm not ruling out the minimum it sells at around 150M
But again I agree its highly unlikely to sell that little, most likely it'll surpass the DS and has a 50/50 shot at surpassing PS2
