Shtinamin_ said:
As of Feb 29th the Switch is estimated at 141M shipped (personal estimate), and is at -13% from FY'23 (18.63M from FY'23, and ~16.3M from this FY) in terms of shipping. Jan and Feb are always the lowest selling & shipping months of the FY so seeing a -9.7% YoY in Jan & -15% YoY in Feb is really solid. We should expect to see a minimum of a 15%-20% decrease in the FY'25 goal. Personally I expect around 13M for the FY'25 goal. 10M is very reasonable. I'm sticking with 13M. Bringing the Switch to a total of 155M by Mar 31 2025. |
The minimum of 150M actually applies for end of 2024, not for lifetime. By end of March 2024 (= FY24) the Switch will be at 142M shipped (or very close to it). The Switch coming of a FY shipping more than 16M (yes, mostly likely the forecasted 15.5mil for FY24 will be surpassed) and having another holidays all for itself, it is very unlikely that it will ship less than 10M in FY25. Therefore, by end of March 2025, the Switch will be at a minimum of 152M (or very close to it). From then on out and whenever the Switch 2 will come out in 2025 (March, April, May,...), I mean, the Switch will not just stop completely to sell. Even if Nintendo "kills off" the Switch (which is very unlikely but howsoever...), an absolute bare minimum of two full years of production after Switch 2 comes out is guaranteed.What’s insane is that 155mil would actually correlate well with how the Switch has down these past two months. Not even an optimistic projection, it’s literally just realistic. And to see all the older posts on this thread…Nintendo really pulled it off.
