I think we're probably still not in agreement on how much userbase matters, I'd say anything over 5 million in each major reagion is just gravy, and beyond that it's a minor boost at best.  That said seems like we can both agree that it's not as simple math as "_____ sold 20k with 3m console userbase, that's the same as selling 400k on 60m console userbase.  So I think I can be happy with that at least.  

After that it's just all academic how much of an affect userbase has and when it stops mattering.  Would be interesting to try out some other series, maybe something like CoD since those are basically every year but they aren't all main numbered entries which could have an effect.  Don't want to just do sports titles though.  

And thank you for the compliment, I'll admit I was rather proud of the graph.  

I think for certain the game will sell less than Heavy Rain. Too many people bought it off of hype and regretted it. I dont know if B2S is that different of a game from HR but people will lump them together and it will sell a bunch less. I can still see it doing a mil by the end of year though, which is pretty good in my eyes.

Im going to give biggest flop of the year award to Splinter Cell BL. Its an known franchise(though its popularity has been on the downside) and had some TV advertising behind it(gamestop crossover commercial is all I have seen). Cant say that about B2S(not established tons of tv ads tho), W101, Fuse, Remember Me, Rayman(established, no ads), ect.

300k is not bad, they'll prob sell upto a million, plus a little more on psn, however dev costs would be pretty high just due to ellen page and willem dafoe

Not when you have 80 million customers.

What?  We replied to that post like 3 or 4 times!!

$100m for what? Only budget number we have seen is $27 million.

The total amount of revenue it caused.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-04-19-de-fondaumiere-innovation-doesnt-rhyme-with-unprofitability

There was also a thread about it here. At that time they probably shipped 2.8m units or so.
In case you already knew that I was highlighting that the source used Dollars instead of Euros.

EDIT: Just saw that there is indeed a source that uses Euro:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-04-19-heavy-rain-cost-16-7-million-to-make-and-made-sony-more-than-100-million

It's the same exact quote but with Euro instead of Dollar. Someone fucked up lol.

Where are you coming up with 2m?  Only thing we've seen is 27m for development which would take 780,000 sales to break even at 57% revenue, are we assuming that marketing cost is the same as develpment?   I find that hard to believe.  

oh I didn't realize they already announced the development costs for Beyond. Marketing costs is indeed a big question mark as we either get no or different information about the costs. But I didn't take the dev budget again for marketing.

$40m surely as the total budget. Obviously it doesn't need 2m sales at full price, but at the same time it won't get to 1.2m without one or several price cuts if it follows for example the Heavy Rain sales path (divided by 2 - roughly) or the Saints Row IV path (PS3 version), which had a similar opening.
Of course it would be easier to predict in a few weeks when we see its legs.
But yeah 2m might be a bit too high to break even. Should be closer to 1.5m or 1.6m

Why is it the assumption that costs of marketing a single game isn't tied to the budget of the game (which we know is $27 million). There's no way in hell Sony spent that much ($13 million) on marketnig this game.