By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - So is Beyond officially the flop of the year now?

Nem said:
krafty89 said:
Wonderful 101, Fuse, Rayman Legends, Puppeteer, Killzone Mercenary, take your pick.


Killzone sold 110k + digital so far, on the limited usebase of the Vita. It isnt a flop of the size of Rayman legends. Wonderful 101, was also launched on a limited userbase.

Imo Rayman Legends is the flop of the year. It released to all the major platforms and failed to make any impact.

Actually scrap that, fuse is in a level of its own. Manages to even be worse than Rayman.

I'd say the ps360 versions of rayman legends are the flops of the year, selling less than the wii u version.



Around the Network
TheLastStarFighter said:
Torillian said:
Mr Khan said:
This is true, but when you're talking about a game that, for whatever reason, obviously had limited appeal, then it's more fair to bring userbase into play.

Indeed, i would argue that userbase is fair game unless the game is a "killer app", that is, a significant system seller, since those are the kinds of games that you see post more consistent results across generations, whereas other games are much more userbase-dependent.


But it isn't something where greater userbase means greater sales proportionally.  Take a random example of a series I like, Atelier Arland + Ayesha.  We'll stick to NA sales.  First game comes out in 2009 when there aren't many other JRPGs to buy on PS3 and sells 170,000.  Next you have Totori a year later with 80,000, and then the next two following years see 30k and 30k.  You'd say the series is declining and I'd agree the NA userbase is in decline, but I see many more games following this kind of trend over a linear increase in sales that matches up with the increase in install base.  

You can't just say W101 sold about as well as Beyond because it had a 20th of the userbase because increasing the userbase of W101 would not increase the sales it got by 20 times.  In fact I'd argue that the userbase affect is not even close to one to one which is what many in this thread are assuming for their comparisons.  

As the userbase increases we basically always see the attach rate of games and series going down.  Is that because those series are incline or because you're just increasing the number you divide by when you calculate attach rate as the user base increases?  I'd guess the later.  

 

I think it's mix of the two.  Your userbase becomes more diversified as it increases, no question.  But many sequels decline with each iteration.  But you also see sequel increase in sales with userbase if they remain popular (COD, GTA, etc).

I think you should avoid exclusive titles when looking at attach rates because they often are unique titles.  A great game to look at is something with consistent interest year over year.  I like Madden on X360 for example.  From '06 to '10 sales increased every year until it peaked at about 5X year 1.  They then experienced a modest decline as gamers begin to experience apathy with their old system.  The increase is not consistent or linear.  There are many factors such as the titles that early adopters prefer.  But there is no question that if a series has consitent interest sales will increase signifantly and measurably with userbase.

And yes, W101 is a much bigger flop than Beyond.

This post reflects my thoughts on the matter accurately.

Essentially, there are two types of video games: games you just buy, and games you buy consoles for. The latter are games that have appeal that let them stand on their own, effectively, and so you'll see consistency across the long-term, even if there may be fluctuation within generations (Zelda is a good example). For the latter, however, existing userbase size plays a much larger role in the calculus of how much it's going to sell, though it's only one part of the calculus.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

I think Beyond will easily reach 1 million, maybe 1.5 million and that's not a flop. Brain Age for the 3DS is a real flop...



m0ney said:

With 300 something k copies sold.

I thought it would become the first AAA game for me that I buy at release but after playing the demo I started doubting and then the reviews followed, what a shame.


It's sold 300k in a week. That's not great, but it's certainly not bad either. I think it will get over a million lifetime sales. 



ethomaz said:
PlayMatt said:
Since when is Beyond AAA? Just because of Mrs. Page?



OMG The power of the Cell



Around the Network
Adinnieken said:
BuckStud said:
attaboy said:
300k is a respectable number.


300k for a supposed AAA game on a system with a 80m base is not good at all.  They're not even remotely close to breaking even at this point.

This.

As a percentage of the install base, Beyond did badly, where as Wonderful 101 didn't do so badly.  Rayman did horribly though.

As it is, Beyond got 1/3 of 1% market share. 

Wonderful 101 got 5% market share.

 

That's the wrong way to look at things. A game like Beyond is has niche appeal as it's not a mainstream style of game. The niche of gamers that are potential buyers of Beyond is probably about 3 million PS3 owners at best. So week 1 Beyond sold to about 10% of it's market potential. I don't know enough about W101 to be able to characterise how niche of a game it is, but I suspect it's not a style of game that direclty appeals to the Mario fans.

And one musty also consider that the most wildly popular games on PS3 (and 360) have sold to only about 15% of the install base. So 15% of the install base looks to be the upper limit of sales potential for PS3 games. In that context 300K week 1 is OK.

Also with a game like W101 it doesn't have a lot of competition for the attention of Wii U owners. Beyond has hundreds of games with at least a 5pt metacritic advantage over it to compete with, let alone the whole library of PS3 games. W101 on the other hand is the 27th best Wii U game by metascore on a system with a library of 75 games (that have metascores). A game like W101 *should* be selling to a higher % of Wii owners than it has. And I entirely blame Wii U owners forits flop status, because objectively W101 should be selling way way better than it is.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Seece said:
I'd say Wonderful 101 at less than 50k WW is. 300k for a game like Beyond is alright IMO.


Considering the fact that W101's budget is paltry compared to the gazzillions of Hollywood style $$$ they spent on Beyond, I'd say your comparison is invalid.

W101 could still have legs and even if it only makes it to a few 100k in sales, it could still make Platinum money.

Beyond, on the other hand, is already, unequvocably a "flop", financially speaking.

 

And therein, folks, lies the danger and (arguably) absurdity in trying to make Hollywood-sized-budget games, that try their damdest to act like Hollywood blockbuster movies. If it fails, it fails hard. This kind of thing has brought down entire companies within the last decade. This whole "AAA" budget game phenomenon has never, ever been smart or sustainable, and if the industry doesn't move away from it as the current standard practice, it's going to eventually collapse in on itself.



Barozi said:
eh hardly.
Though it's gonna be very difficult to make a profit out of it.


They raked in €100M in revenue from Heay Rain. Beyond: Two Souls will be profitable.



Kresnik said:
the_dengle said:
And everyone once again forgets Castlevania: Lords of Shadow - Mirror of Fate. One flop to rule them all, one flop to find them...

Or Brain Age if you're okay with the fact that it came out in Japan last year.


Two extremely decent suggestions.  I think Brain Age is a good candidate given sales of the previous entries.

I honestly had no idea another one had come out till I read this.




Get Your Portable ID!Lord of Ratchet and Clank

Duke of Playstation Plus

Warden of Platformers

AshKetchum1992 said:
ethomaz said:
PlayMatt said:
Since when is Beyond AAA? Just because of Mrs. Page?



OMG The power of the Cell

you're goddamn right




Get Your Portable ID!Lord of Ratchet and Clank

Duke of Playstation Plus

Warden of Platformers