Heres a rundown of Nintendo's exclusive Line up and how I think each game will fair. 

Wonderful 101: Not a system seller

No exlpanation really needed, Nintendo are only shipping 30k units of the game in japan, that shows you they have no real intention to push it. In europe it may fair better but being a New IP and not having the core support for Nintendo it probably won't sell over 300k in either region, which necessarily bad for the game itself, but in context of pushing the Wii U it will do very little.

The Legend of Zeld Windwaker: Very weak System Seller

Note that Ocarina of time 3D ONLY SOLD 500K In Japan and another 500k in Europe, so don't expect Winkwaker to be a huge seller. It has the benefit of being less played then OCarina of time, but Ocarina of time had the benefit of being the only flagship title out at the time for the 3DS, giving 3DS owners little choice and it sales definitely benefited from a boost in sales generated by  the 3DS price cut. In terms of pushing hardware, at release the game only increased 3DS sales by 30%. Now Nintendo could announce a price cut this november as steep as the one we saw for the 3DS (40% AKA $249 delux wii U) but for now I'll labour under the illusion that they won't. 

Sonic- Not a system seller in Japan/ Weak system seller in Europe

In japan the sonic franchise is on very weak legs, with the most recent game generations, only selling 200k on the PS3 and even far less on the 3DS. To put it in context, Sonic arriving on the Wii U is no more of an event in Japan than the likes of the multiplatform dragon crown being released on the Vita. Expect a very smalls hardware boost if any at all. 

The game in Europe will fair a lot better, Generations sold  1.4m across it 3 platforms (360, 3DS, PS3) in the region. But that is on a massive combined userbase of 2 consoles late in their cycle. As generation was  a mid tier 3rd party title launching amongst much bigger franchises (COD, AC, Halo, MArio), its hard to acess sonics ability to sell hardware as opposed to  merely managing respectable sales on already established platforms. 

Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games: Not a systems in Japan/ Good System seller in Europe

In japan this game is  as relevant as stand alone sonic titles. Both recent entries failed to reach 300k on the wii. For Europe this  game will be the first system seller in the region but it won't arrive to november.

Donkey Kong- Not a system seller in Europe/ Mild System seller in Japan

Donkey Kong was  the key holiday title in 2010 and only sold 300k in europe. Clearly not a system seller there. In Japan however it faired much better and managed 1m, but only openning with only 160k, its sales are not front loaded which means its ability to sell buckets of hardware in the short term is quite limited.

Wii fit U- ???

 An unknown quantity from my perspective. It would either bomb horribly or reignite the home fitness frenzy we saw some years back. My underlyin feeling is that the game will fail, reinforced by the fact that we haven't seen what its othering other than off screen play. XBox One and Kinect 2 is only system that I think can bring the fitness genre back to huge sales.

Mario world 3D:
Sure fired hit worldwide, but arriving in december will it be too late to change the Wii U's holiday fortune? 

Alternative take on things: Although very few of the titles represent strong system sellers, collectively they make for a busy holiday line up which makes the Wii U an attractive purchase this christmas. Theres also the possibility of an extensive price cut, does anyone think it'll happen now or will they wait for Mario Kart 8? 

My prediction:

September:
EU: 30k
Japan: 50k
October:
EU: 80k
Japan: 100k
November:
EU: 260k
Japan: 180k
December:
EU: 500k
Japan: 430k

Even selling amazingly would disappoint Nintendo: they're expecting 9 millions for the whole year, that means 8.84m for 9 months, and probably over 8.5m for the last two quarters.
Of course they'll be disappointed.

Games line up looks good at first sight, but I think games are to close to each other in genres, many platformers, sure people who like platformers have no other choice but to get Wii U at some point but how many are there? W101 is totally niche, Wind Waker HD I don't know, I wouldn't buy a console for a HD reedition, but Nintendo fans seem to like playing the same games again. And I can't see Wii Fit U doing much just like you.

If I see it right, neither PS4 or XBOX will be available this holiday in Japan. So I think WiiU will do decent in Japan. Europe is another matter. Always the hardest region for Nintendo, they will continue to struggle here.

the line up is great for Nintendo fans, however the lack of a major system seller and the PS4/XBO launch will surely mean less than stellar sales. Games i think that will help push sales are DKCTF, SM3DW and LoZ: WW HD. games they need however are MK8, Super Mario (3D Series), SSB4 or Zelda. any of those would have helped immensely.

btw 3D series Mario is 64, Sunshine and Galaxies.
SM3DW is a hybrid of 2D and 3D, just like SM3DL

But the Vita might pose some competition. Also The PS3 is still recieving big games this fall with GT6, Project J versus,  Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII and Final Fantasy X HD. 

Yes, handhelds are obviously stronger in Japan. But WiiU already showed potential in this direction with the people playing on train on the gamepad. Some japanese developers (namely Capcom) noticed that. So I don't think the WiiU can really beat handhelds, but with the other home-consoles launch later, the current line-up and the option for half-handheld it might do good on Japan. Although Japan also is not the big market anymore for home-consoles.

So u have Wii U selling about 1.63 in EU+Jap for the rest of the year plus 3 weeks left of Aug and ill round it to 1.7 million. If NA is the strongest market then 1.3 million doesnt sound too farfetched which puts it at another 3 million this year giving Wii U a total of 6.5 million. Im one of the Wii Us biggest defenders on this site and im personally guessing about 7 million by the end of the year, give or take 500k. I consider that great despite the horrible first half of the year.

I would have said yeah the sales will be terrible for Nintendo this Xmas in Japan, but the one saving grace they have is that neither the Xbox or the PS4 will be launching there this year by the looks of things...so if they have some interesting games then it wont be as bad as it could have been. So i think they will be middling sales.

I also think Wii-U Fit wont do anything to improve the console, and I think the DS will continue to sell more (not a difficult prediction i know :)

Mario 3D World not coming until December is a far bigger problem in America (missing Black Friday) than it is in Europe, where the biggest sales weeks are in December.