Heres a rundown of Nintendo's exclusive Line up and how I think each game will fair.
Wonderful 101: Not a system seller
No exlpanation really needed, Nintendo are only shipping 30k units of the game in japan, that shows you they have no real intention to push it. In europe it may fair better but being a New IP and not having the core support for Nintendo it probably won't sell over 300k in either region, which necessarily bad for the game itself, but in context of pushing the Wii U it will do very little.
The Legend of Zeld Windwaker: Very weak System Seller
Note that Ocarina of time 3D ONLY SOLD 500K In Japan and another 500k in Europe, so don't expect Winkwaker to be a huge seller. It has the benefit of being less played then OCarina of time, but Ocarina of time had the benefit of being the only flagship title out at the time for the 3DS, giving 3DS owners little choice and it sales definitely benefited from a boost in sales generated by the 3DS price cut. In terms of pushing hardware, at release the game only increased 3DS sales by 30%. Now Nintendo could announce a price cut this november as steep as the one we saw for the 3DS (40% AKA $249 delux wii U) but for now I'll labour under the illusion that they won't.
Sonic- Not a system seller in Japan/ Weak system seller in Europe
In japan the sonic franchise is on very weak legs, with the most recent game generations, only selling 200k on the PS3 and even far less on the 3DS. To put it in context, Sonic arriving on the Wii U is no more of an event in Japan than the likes of the multiplatform dragon crown being released on the Vita. Expect a very smalls hardware boost if any at all.
The game in Europe will fair a lot better, Generations sold 1.4m across it 3 platforms (360, 3DS, PS3) in the region. But that is on a massive combined userbase of 2 consoles late in their cycle. As generation was a mid tier 3rd party title launching amongst much bigger franchises (COD, AC, Halo, MArio), its hard to acess sonics ability to sell hardware as opposed to merely managing respectable sales on already established platforms.
Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games: Not a systems in Japan/ Good System seller in Europe
In japan this game is as relevant as stand alone sonic titles. Both recent entries failed to reach 300k on the wii. For Europe this game will be the first system seller in the region but it won't arrive to november.
Donkey Kong- Not a system seller in Europe/ Mild System seller in Japan
Donkey Kong was the key holiday title in 2010 and only sold 300k in europe. Clearly not a system seller there. In Japan however it faired much better and managed 1m, but only openning with only 160k, its sales are not front loaded which means its ability to sell buckets of hardware in the short term is quite limited.
Wii fit U- ???
An unknown quantity from my perspective. It would either bomb horribly or reignite the home fitness frenzy we saw some years back. My underlyin feeling is that the game will fail, reinforced by the fact that we haven't seen what its othering other than off screen play. XBox One and Kinect 2 is only system that I think can bring the fitness genre back to huge sales.
Mario world 3D:
Sure fired hit worldwide, but arriving in december will it be too late to change the Wii U's holiday fortune?
Alternative take on things: Although very few of the titles represent strong system sellers, collectively they make for a busy holiday line up which makes the Wii U an attractive purchase this christmas. Theres also the possibility of an extensive price cut, does anyone think it'll happen now or will they wait for Mario Kart 8?
My prediction:
September:
EU: 30k
Japan: 50k
October:
EU: 80k
Japan: 100k
November:
EU: 260k
Japan: 180k
December:
EU: 500k
Japan: 430k
