The difference between the median and the mean numbers show, that a few weeks with high sales dominate the mean number. That's no surprise, we all know, that christmas sell many consoles.

SMG has been out 2 - 3 months?  And has 3.31 Million Sales

That would make it the 3rd biggest selling 360 game and the biggest selling PS3 game.

mummelman, you're so caught up tech specs! why does that matter? i want to know. according to you, the wii will sell less than the 360 and ps3! plz! that's a big impossiblilty! the wii will sell more than the other consoles. everyone who wants one can't get one. (when the ps2 arrived, everyone who wanted one could get one, because they were all available!!) duh! i also think you are biased against the wii! (i didn't say you were. i said i think.)

your sig says it all!! you're worse than leoj!

You can't compare what games have sold on one platform to games that have sold on other platforms.  They have different sized install bases, and different demographics.

 Never once in my post did I state that the Wii will sell less than PS3, 360. In fact, I think it'll sell more. What I'm trying to argue is that the insane predictions hold no merit when the productin mention is targeted at a public who have been known to change opinions and buying habits at whim and practically over night. 

As things stand right now, the Wii is likely to sell the most of the three, but there is no evidence that it'll reach over half a billion sales! That's what I've been trying (in vain) to say for over 6 months. 

As for the tech specs; like I said, the difference between the Wii and PS3/360 is vast compared to any difference in previous gens, so it's already looking a bit dated in comparison. If no one cares how games look, then fine. But many do, just like most people see and appreciate the difference between VHS and DVD. PS3 and 360 appeal to those who set up their console with surround and an HDTV (the fastest growing media accessories globally) while the Wii appeals to the same peopel who get easily riled up and easily tire of things (i.e; casuals).

That's my take on things, you don't have to agree. Btw: I'm not biased against the Wii as a product (I might even get one next year), but I AM biased against assumptions with no base in reality. We shoudl all be! 

Well here's my reasoning, Mummelmann.

I believe that most customers (I never use the word 'consumers' in this context) really do not care about all of this HD business. I think HD DVD & Blu-ray will be a wash. This format war is useless because something out of left field that won't be in disc form will supplant the winner of that fight. I stay away from tech battles like that and wait for the dust to settle because it usually turns out that something else unforeseen usually undoes all that was achieved in that fight. I wait until it becomes more common to jump on because I don't want to buy a lot of stuff that will end up useless outside of collector's items capabilities.

I imagine most people are like this as well. I just recently a couple of years ago bought my first regular DVD player. $30 at the Kroger supermarket. I was still in VHS standard up until around 2005. They got cheap DVD/TV players that people use at work. DVD isn't going anywhere until something useful and simpler comes along. The modest improvements on picture HD-DVD & Blu-ray provide will not provide the boost to get most people to change over like the switch from VHS to DVD did. DVDs can be used with computers & are much easier to store and track down scenes with. There were useful properties which compelled that change but this does not exist from DVD to HD-DVD & Blu-ray. Only technophiles & gadgetheads get into all that kind of stuff.

For HDTVs some will buy but most don't care and won't care until those TVs become more affordable like SDTVs. The digital switch in 2009 does not end SDTV resolution; it just changes the broadcast signal from analog to digital. And I'm sure there will be digital converters for sale for those with old TVs. Most people stick with their TVs until they die on them. It's like furniture. You don't change your couch every few minutes. Or your refrigerator. Not until it breaks or you're looking to totally revamp your living quarters design. Or that you have a lady at the house who will not be satisfied with household arrangements always changing around everything.

The kind of things PS3 & XBox 360 promote techwise are just not useful for most people. Blu-ray movies have some buyers but DVD has tons more. Status symbol bragging rights are one thing but everybody is not switching over from a standard that was only made a few years ago. DVDs will last well into the 2010s & then some improved non-disc format will take its place.

The PS3 & especially the Xbox 360 have old controls. The NES Standard from 1983. Yeah it's been tweaked over the years & improved upon (mainly by Nintendo themselves) but it's simply old. Been out for 24 years. It limits the type of games that can come out due to the input device. Consoles are dependent on input devices for the experience.

Nintendo has a control standard that not only can be used in the old NES fashion but is a whole new way of playing that creates games you could not see on another system. This alone pulls plenty of people into the videogaming universe who simply would not be here otherwise. The news stories underlining this fact are numerous.

Not only that but it's the product approach that differs between 360 & Ps3 vs. Wii. Wii in its name, in its design, in its promotions looks inviting and friendly. It looks INCLUSIVE. No velvet rope. No VIPs. No elites. We ALL can play...together. No country club, boys' clubhouse, secret society with Wii. It's open and welcomes you with a warm hug. It's non-threatening enough to where people don't feel weird having this next to their living room decor. A nice medium between toy & furniture which Gamecube sorely lacked!

PS3 & 360 tend to cater to this established audience some of which has become very elitist & unwelcoming to newcomers. It's all velvet rope & I have to work 2 jobs to buy one & have to buy the special online play package & have to buy extra content. VIP room & snooty like an overpriced restaurant. Puts up many barriers to entry like its controls put up barriers to new types of games. You are NOT playing Trauma Center on those old controls.

And I also would add this intangible called Nintendo Charm. EVEN the Wii Menu is loaded with it. Nintendo never takes itself so seriously. When you download stuff from Wii Ware or updates you got this SMB-style Mario running around collecting coins & hitting bricks in the jump to denote the download progress. You have a cat in the loading screen for the news channel giving you tips on what to do turning the paper graphics into cats which you click on and get a Meow sound. Also a random cat in the Photo Channel you have to catch first before you have to get tips out of. They make a game even out of that! The type of music used, the sound effects. It's very Nintendo-y. It has life and personality and will make you smile. And that's just the damn Wii Menu! The Miis in the Check Mii Out contests doing those silly poses. The others would not do that.

PS3 & 360 push HDTV adoption, HD-media adoption, power for power's sake to wow, a well-worn control standard and not seeking to change, a well-worn established audience who don't seek to change, an exclusive VIP elitist attitude from these members, and higher prices to pick up the equipment.

Nintendo like always remains cheap, doesn't ask you to go out and get a brand new TV to enjoy the stuff on screen, does not ask you to support a new media in a format war, is inviting and inclusive without any barriers to new audiences, expands gaming's possibilities, and has fun while doing it in that trademarked Nintendo Charm they're so good at.

I try not to get insulting while I'm here but I think it's absurd for people to think with all this in tow Wii cannot last for the long haul. If ANY system is going to last 10 years it's gonna be the Wii. These arguments about Wii's graphics being outdated in the near future don't hold water since PS2 the weakest graphicked system of the 6th gen is still selling like gangbusters right now. It took forever for 360 to get ahead of the PS2 in its strongest region, the USA. 7th gen outside of the Wii is not compelling so many people to make the jump just yet. PS2's graphics even being the weakest were fine. I enjoyed the visuals on the PS2. Seeing a Tekken game on there made me wonder what all the fuss was about with this graphics thing. They're better in 7th gen but the jump ain't all that compared to switch from black & white to color between 1st gen to 2nd gen and from "8-bit" to "16-bit" between 3rd gen to 4th gen much less from 2-D sprite to 3-D polygon from 4th gen to 5th gen.

Nintendo has these multiple factors going for it plus the reality of momentum exponentializing sales. The more Wiis are out, the more people will want Wiis with the listed factors speaking to each one most specifically the inclusivity with accessibility & new way to play right behind. Somebody's gonna jumpstart the 8th gen like Microsoft jumpstarted the 7th gen but it's not gonna stop the momentum of the Wii. Surely didn't work for 3DO or Atari Jaguar. Some new competitor inspired by Nintendo's success will enter the market & try to offset Nintendo but it will not work because Nintendo has fused this philosophy so deeply into their system that combined with their quality and affordability that people will ignore the competitor much like Zune has been ignored by those wanting iPods & their copycats. Nintendo's inimitable business model doesn't hurt either. Nobody have run this gaming business like Nintendo has done. Videogaming R&D/production is costly with harder to make returns for that expenditure. Even Microsoft is failing at this though they can afford to do so. How do you make novel inspiring technology and do it cost effectively? I don't think anybody else has the answer to this question other than the N-boys. It's something so many have tried to accomplished and failed while this Kyoto company has stayed around like an oak tree in the meantime.

The only reason Nintendo lost power is because of their relations with the 3rd party. The 3rd party got together and offset Nintendo by backing a competitor. If Nintendo wasn't so heavyhanded with 3rd party they may have never lost their grip on this industry. In reality all it did was loosen their grip on the console market performance. They were always strong and a force in this business. GBA/DS proves it. Japan's 1st console is now handheld as opposed to home. All Nintendo did with this Wii thing was to resolidify their dominance in all sectors.

I said it before and I'll damn sure say it again:

Nintendo isn't just IN this industry. Nintendo IS this industry.

The rest are contributors and visiting players but Nintendo is the home team. That's how it's been since the old home team, Atari, fell out in mid 80s.

John Lucas

^ Good god that is a lot of writing ^

Why not? Technology has little to do with staying power. Look at the NES, it was much weaker than its personal computer counterparts at the time (16 bit vs 8 bit), yet it managed to outlast them, and today the name "NES" is a far bigger name in the industry than the "Commodore 64," that was much more powerful at the time. 

 I believe it'll be a similar situation with the Wii. Not only will it have the lifespan of the HD consoles, I believe it'll outlast the HD consoles. The HD consoles may be more powerful, but the Wii is more innovative, and in gaming innovation outlasts technology. I truely believe that it'll be the Wii that will last 10 years, NOT the PS3. Wii will become "the" defining console of the time much like the NES, while the 360 and PS3 will fade into obscurity as its niche of hardcore gamers will only be able to carry them so far.

Seems to me that you have the very well-off casuals confused with the majority of them.  Most can not afford to toss aside even $250 as a whim, which is why most don't have HD TVs either. 

 "which won't be nearly varied or entertaining enough longterm"   You're thinking of the other consoles.  PS3 and X360 have a large number of their games in 3 categories, action, sports and racer (rpg for X360).  For the games in VG Chartz given a category, PS3 and X360 have over half in 3 groups out of 13 possible groups.  VG Chartz has PS3 with 9 games that don't fit into any category,  so it goes into Other.  X360 only 6.  Wii has 26 'Other' games, over 10% of the number of games made for the system.  It has more platform, puzzle and sim games as well, also appealing to the more casual.  Who has the most varied?  If any console is going to get the casual player, as the PS2 came the closest to getting in the last generation, it is the Wii.

i dont think that wii is a "casual" machine. i just think the games are. if they wanted to, they could release a blood filled fps on the wii. but that wouldnt make it as casual. anyway my point is. the casual games wont be its downfall, as all they will do is release more casual games. to keep the casual market interested.

"Nintendo isn't just IN this industry. Nintendo IS this (handheld) industry."

fixed.

just remember. sony have released two consoles and have racked up 200million + total unit sales. nobody has sparked the industry like sony have. its because of sony, that ms decided to join. its because of sony, that nintendo got off their lazy asses and captured the industry back again. and it will be because of nintendo, that sony increase the competition next time round. and yes nintendo are the heavyweights, but nintendo dont make the industry. competition makes the industry.