Wii now 10m ahead of PS3 - putting this into context / future predictions

[Renar]

Mummelmann said:

robjoh said:

Mummelmann said:
So people still believe that the Wii will have the same lifespan as the HD consoles? Why? And don't tell me that "the Wii will start and keep selling 60 million a year", there must a reason why they will uphold this tremendous momentum. But these reasons are never given, it is just assumed that it will be that way, sound reasoning indeed.

I personally don't think that the momentum will last forever, but I do belive that it will hold out for the next year at least. The main driver will be SSBB and Mario Kart for the nintendo fans and Wii Line of games (starting with Wii Fit) for casual gamers. If they can reach 40 million sold Wiis at the end of 2008 it would be great and that could mean a 20 million lead on the PS3 (or close to it).

I personally belive Microsoft will try for a 7 years lifespann of the xbox360 that will mean that Nintendo can afford a 6 years lifespann for the Wii. At the moment Microsoft launches 720, or whatever, PS4 needs to be launched, even if PS4 is just 2 duc taped PS3s

The main reason why I can see that Wii will last as long as the HD consols is what have extended the life of the PS2, interface game. Buzz, singstar, Guitarr Hero, Rock Band you name it. The Wii line of games is probarbly the main reason the casual buys Wii today and that makes me think that Nintendo will continue to dominate that crowd throughout the entire life cycle. Nintendo has already now shown an intresst adding new toys to the Wii, Wii Zapper and Wii Fit board, and I think Nintendo will continue to expand their offerings. That in combination with a possible 99 USD price tag might let the Wii keep on truking with the big boys during 2011.

With the early momentum Wii has build up it and the strong casual base it would be stupid for 3rd party not trying to cash in on that crowd. I think carnival games has hit 300k sold during November in USA and might have sold even more since than. That might lead to even more casual games that can give Nintendo the casual gamer edge late in the consol cycle.

Now when I have tried to explain why I can see Wii going strong and survive as long as the HD consols you could possible try to explain why it will fall flat next year.

Remember that last gen, the PS2 was not only 1:100 in terms of power compared to the others, but the Wii is. Anyway; as I've said countless times before, I have precious little faith in the prolonged interest in a product from the most unstable of all buyers; the casuals. This group of people have been known to embrace a new "gadget" and give it near legendary sales, only to abandon it shortly after. Anyone targeting this audience better have a very decisive and longterm plan to keep them hooked. It seems that Nintendo is going to give us more of what they've already done, whcih will quickly grow old for people who change their wardrobe, cellphones or "gadgetry" on a nearly monthly basis.

It's showing in the sales of "core" games just how big a percentage of Wii owners are casuals, and they seem to have little to no interest in these titles (SMG, MP). This will continue as long as the core audience shies away, so the top notch 1st party games will not get the attention they possibly deserve, which in turn will deter 3rd parties from investing too much into titles they know won't sell on that platform. So 98% of game library will be the same kind of simple games that casuals seem to like, which won't be nearly varied or entertaining enough longterm to keep their technological wanderlust at bay.

This is how the casuals act and think; shortterm and right now. 2 years from now, the Wii will be old news, much like the Nokia 3200 or Sony Ericsson W800i is now. Don't fancy casuals treat consoles the same as cellphones? Well, they're "fashion technophiles", embracing and doting on a piece of gadgetry until it is no longer cool, at which point they toss it out or otherwise discard it.

There are core gamers as well who buy the Wii, but they seem to prefer either a PS3, 360 or simply a PC (like me).

This is why I feel that the Wii has little staying power, and also why I think that Nintendo will be the first to launch a new console next gen.

Okay, there it is; go ahead Avinash, take it away. We're all dying to hear your opinion again.

Seems to me that you have the very well-off casuals confused with the majority of them.  Most can not afford to toss aside even $250 as a whim, which is why most don't have HD TVs either. 

 "which won't be nearly varied or entertaining enough longterm"   You're thinking of the other consoles.  PS3 and X360 have a large number of their games in 3 categories, action, sports and racer (rpg for X360).  For the games in VG Chartz given a category, PS3 and X360 have over half in 3 groups out of 13 possible groups.  VG Chartz has PS3 with 9 games that don't fit into any category,  so it goes into Other.  X360 only 6.  Wii has 26 'Other' games, over 10% of the number of games made for the system.  It has more platform, puzzle and sim games as well, also appealing to the more casual.  Who has the most varied?  If any console is going to get the casual player, as the PS2 came the closest to getting in the last generation, it is the Wii.