Oh yes 2007 has almost put the nail in the coffin for this generation. But because there is still a lot left, I leave that 10-20% left over. But if Wii sales pick up any bit whatsoever, which it probably will due to increased shipments, and PS3 doesn't double and triple its sales within the first half of 08, then this generation is over.

I think it is keeping the fire stoked in what would otherwise be "dry" times, but we have also seen this holiday that those who cannot get a Wii are still willing to pay scalper prices on eBay to get them.

I think you're out off your mind, Shams. There no way possible the Wii can outsell the PS3 by 20mil in 2008. In order to do something like that, the Wii would need to be pushing the 30m sold number in one year. I think that's impossible, mainly because I don't expect demand to be that high for the Wii. Also, it's a guarantee that the Playstation 3 will do much, much better than it did this year, which will probably result 11m PS3's sold minimum. I'm already sure you're aware of this, but GTA is flagship tittle that will have a huge impact on whatever console it's being released on. Let's also not forget about the PS3's strongest market, Europe, which should be getting Grand Turismo and price drops. In addition, they're also getting a Metal Gear Solid bundle. That should easily boost sells for the already popular PS3. It will be very hard for the Wii to outsell the PS3 2:1 in Europe; that's something that needs to be done, if they're going to outsell the PS3 by 20m nest year.

Why isn't my ban over yet? The thing says 12/28/07, but it still won't let me log in! 

 Oh definetly.  360 lost as soon as the Wii started outselling it on a monthly basis in America, cause if MS couldn't take a majority in America, then they couldn't win this generation.  And when I mean majority, I mean 70-80% majority haha.

360's run at first is done, and they'll probably suffer the fate of last, unless PS3 American sales are just so far down that it can't pass it.  

your math doesn't work out

 wii is currently 10 million ahead of ps3...thus it only needs to sell 10mil more than ps3 in 2008...and u say in the quoted above that ps3 will sell 11m...so wii only has to sell 21mil in 2008, which is below its current production...but either way, it's 21 mil, not 30 mil

 btw, it could EASILY sell 30mil in 2008 if nintendo will up production

 i'm expecting them to continue to be conservative and only ramp up production to 2.5m/month around may/june and then up to 3mil/month around oct/nov...so 5*1.8 + 5*2.5 + 2*3 = 30 mil

 so 50mil LTD by 12/31/08 is easily doable

 As already stated, your math is incorrect; Wii sales need not be what you say they are in order to achieve a 20 million lead.  Furthermore your analysis is a little, uh... flawed in that you list various reasons that you believe PS3 will achieve further success in 2008, but explain away the possibility of Wii doing the same with a simple 'I don't expect demand to be that high for the Wii" - completely ignoring the major flagship titles on the horizon, including Wii Fit which has the possibility to be a real monster worldwide. 

 I think that Shams is correct; a 20 million lead will come easy, barring some unforeseeen circumstance suddenly coming up on the horizon.   Sony should realistically look at trying to stomp the 360, because that is within striking distance.  As for the Wii, I think that it has already snowballed (and will continue to do so) into something pretty much insurmountable, especially considering the wider demographic that are interested in purchasing a Wii. 

imo i think that it is very hard to achieve in 2008 the same numbers of 2007, simply because they all will be one year older, and hardware tends to sell slowly every year it passes. With this i expect the Wii to go at least 12million more, to go 30million at the end of the year, it will be in the range of 28-32m. PS3 is currently with 8m, with the GTA4 and other flagship titles it may go to even 16-18m at the most, and the 360 may break the 20m barrier, easily. Next year is sony and nintendo's, thats for sure

The reason why I am optimistic with regards to the ps3 is because it has managed to sell roughly 8 million units in it's first year despite a very high launch price, limited games, late launch in Europe and stiff competition from the other two consoles. Now with a lower price, decent game library which is constantly improving and selling across all regions for the year I think that 12 million should be the minimum it sells to be honest.

If it sells less than that by a significant margin then I am wrong but I doubt I will be. I hope that explains my stance

Oh and in terms of lifetime sales depending on how good or bad it does I would say the minimum is 70 million with the maximum close to 200 million seeing as how the market has expanded and the playstations typically have good longevity.

Thanks for the users actually reading and responding to my posts :)

Yes - I don't mean an EXTRA lead of 20m next year - I mean a repeat of this year, which gives 10m (2007) + 10m (2008) lead --> a 20m lead in total.

I wonder what sort of lead the Wii *would* need before people finally accept that its not going anywhere (not a fad) - and that its down to the 360/PS3 fighting out for 2nd spot this gen.

(of course things are never this simple - this generation has a few surprises yet to throw into the mix)