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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii now 10m ahead of PS3 - putting this into context / future predictions

Taking Naz's structure we can extend it with a score of 1-10 and rate the "sellability" of each console.  Keep in mind this isn't trying to say that one is better than the other in any way other than its ability to produce a sale.

 

     360   
    PS3   
    Wii    
Price of Console
6
48
Quantity of Games8
67
Price of Games6
67
Press4
510
Word of mouth 5410
Totals
5.85.0 8.4 



Feel free to give your own scores if you want, those are just mine and it is fairly subjective, plus I honestly didn't put a lot of effort into it.

 



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Jigglypuff said:
If price was a factor, the Gamecube woulda sold bucket loads.

there is a difference, the Wii has a lot more fun games to play. All I ever owned for my gamecube was Eternal Darkness, Smash Bros, Resident Evil 4, Skies of Arcadia, Baiten Kaitos and Tales of Symphonia. There were a few other good games, but I didn't care enough to play them.

 Now that's a good amount of games for a year or two, but over its lifetime? Plus,  a couple of those most people have never heard of.



roadkillers said:
Yes the Wii is selling very good but....

1. The software isnt selling the best. The software that really only sells on it is Wii sports or that other one with a free Wii mote (wii play?). Mario did sell well but far behind what people thought. In Japan that game didnt sell even close to what people were predicting.

2. Wii probally wont be here that long. I have a feeling Nintendo will bring in a New console in the next couple of years. I'd say around 2 years once the Wii sales slow down drastically if that ever happens. Then again if that does happen Nintendo can just do a price drop and look what will happen. No wii's once again.

3. Personally now I think its just PS3 vs. Xbox 360. The Wii has taken off and I doubt either of those can catch up. Im sorry to say this but by the end of next year I think 360 will be done. It will end up in last last place behind two consoles that started a year late. Plus the 360 doesnt sell great anywhere beside in North America.

1.  The software is absolutely selling the best.  In it's first year the Wii had 10 million sellers compared to the 360's 7 and the PS3's 2.  The Wii now outsells the 360 worldwide in software by a wide margin even without Wii Sports (Or Wii play if you want to go there), and has outsold it in software America minus Wii Sports (but not Wii Play) a couple times despite less hardware.  The attach rate is lower, but it's also a first year console.  Attach rate grows over time, so the one that's been out the longest (The 360) should have the highest attach rate.  A good example of this is that Wii and PS3 attach rates are nearly equal when you take out Wii Sports.  

2.  Why do you have a feeling Nintendo would release a new console in the next couple of years?  What gives you that feeling?  What is the logic behind that?  Nintendo is by far the most business saavy company of the 3 in the video game industry.  They make a profit on everything.  Even the Gamecube matched the PS2 in profits some quarters.  Releasing a new console would be contrary to everything Nintendo has tried to build over the years.  They don't want to be seen as the company constantly upgrading in technology.  They don't want consumers to feel like they have to "keep up."  You will see a PS4 and Xbox 720 before you see a Wii 2, and you will see a PSP2 long before you see a DS 2.  

3.  It's certainly possible that Microsoft will see a sharp decline in sales next year, and I expect this as well, but I don't expect the PS3 to pass it, but rather to catch up.  Both should maintain relatively equal sales in 2009 and beyond.  



Sqrl said:

Taking Naz's structure we can extend it with a score of 1-10 and rate the "sellability" of each console. Keep in 

 


360
PS3
Wii
Price of Console
6
48
Quantity of Games8
67
Price of Games6
67
Press4
510
Word of mouth 5410
Totals
5.85.0 8.4



Feel free to give your own scores if you want, those are just mine and it is fairly subjective, plus I honestly didn't put a lot of effort into it.

 


 

 Wii PS3
360
 Price of Console
 8 7 7
 Quantity of Games
 7 7 6

 Price of Games          

 8 7 7
 Press 107
8
 Word of Mouth 108
8
 Total 8.6 7.2 7.2


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carlos710 said:
roadkillers said:
Yes the Wii is selling very good but....

1. The software isnt selling the best. The software that really only sells on it is Wii sports or that other one with a free Wii mote (wii play?). Mario did sell well but far behind what people thought. In Japan that game didnt sell even close to what people were predicting.

 However it sells more software week after week since Galaxy was released. And don't say "it's because wii sports" because the 360 has 2 games counted with most of its sales.

 And mario galaxy it's on path to become the best selling Mario 3d game ever. So I'm not sure what you are talking about.


Yes 1st party can sell great on a Nintendo system (like Mario) but 3rd party cant. The only million selling 3rd party games are Gutar Hero 3, Red Steel, Rayman Rabbits, and Resident Evil 4. Thts not counting Mario and Sonic because Mario is a household first party nintendo character. Anyways thats good sales for third party beside the fact that 2 were launch titles. Then Guitar Hero sells well on any console. For Resident Evil 4, that was a port from one of the greatest games of all time so I dont blame people for buying that.

 Look at the 360. 23 out of 29 of the million sellers are 3rd party. 2/4 of the PS3 million sellers are third party. I dont think a console can win without 3rd party support. All that it seems like sells on the console is either first party games or just mini games. I think people will get bored of it. I dont expect any huge games like GTA, Resident Evil (numbered ones beside the port), MGS, Call of Duty (numbered), or a lot others to be on the Wii because no matter what you think Graphics do matter.

 Personally I think the PS3 will make a come back and end up selling more then the 360 and the Wii. Given it might not be when the PS4 comes out but since Sony consoles last years after the new one comes out I think that give PS3 a good chance. Plus look at the big games comming out in the future. MGS4, GTA4, RE5, God of War 3, Resistance 2, and many others. The Wii in my opinion only has 2 huge games comming out in 2008. Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros Brawl. Although those games could seal the deal. Super Smash Bros will probally end up being the best selling game of next year (Not counting GTA on both 360 and PS3).

 Im kinda rambling back in forward. So if you can understand that good if not sorry. Im kind of tired so im typing in circles. Anyways in the end to sum it up for you I think the PS3 will sell the most this Gen (not counting DS).



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Sorair said:
naznatips said:
Jigglypuff said:
If price was a factor, the Gamecube woulda sold bucket loads.

Price is a factor. The leading game system is determined by the casual gamer sales. This has been proven time and time again. There are only a few factors though, and people tend to over-analyze things. The things that determine the best selling console are:

Price of Console
Quantity of Games
Price of Games
Press
Word of mouth

That's really it... you can go into quality and such all you want but the fact is the average consumer doesn't know shit about review scores. All they know is which console has the most games on the wall in the EB Games. We, the core gamers, who pay attention to review scores, follow internet news, and know things like sales data are less than 20% of the market.


Forget what the hell Shams was talking about the Wii is 10million units ahead of the PS3 or its software. I don't know what the hell was that about. Was it to take a shot at the PS3 or not?, but naz naznatips this is an excellent post.

Hardware - check the main page. From todays update, the Wii has now sold more than 10m MORE hardware than the PS3 has (in the same period of time).

 



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Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

While Sony may be able to get price cuts through technology getting cheaper, let's not forget that Nintendo also gets huge volume discounts and does less R&D for model updates and has a more stable production line. Which means that both companies have lowered production costs over time, but only one needs to cut prices to compete, while the other happily racks up massive profits.



shams said:
Sorair said:
naznatips said:
Jigglypuff said:
If price was a factor, the Gamecube woulda sold bucket loads.

Price is a factor. The leading game system is determined by the casual gamer sales. This has been proven time and time again. There are only a few factors though, and people tend to over-analyze things. The things that determine the best selling console are:

Price of Console
Quantity of Games
Price of Games
Press
Word of mouth

That's really it... you can go into quality and such all you want but the fact is the average consumer doesn't know shit about review scores. All they know is which console has the most games on the wall in the EB Games. We, the core gamers, who pay attention to review scores, follow internet news, and know things like sales data are less than 20% of the market.


Forget what the hell Shams was talking about the Wii is 10million units ahead of the PS3 or its software. I don't know what the hell was that about. Was it to take a shot at the PS3 or not?, but naz naznatips this is an excellent post.

Hardware - check the main page. From todays update, the Wii has now sold more than 10m MORE hardware than the PS3 has (in the same period of time).

 


Understandable, your still missing my point. Why attack the PS3 and not the Xbox 360?

I smell bias somewhere.... 



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Don't worry, when the Wii pulls 10 million ahead of 360, we'll take sure to notice for the sake of equality.



roadkillers said:
carlos710 said:
roadkillers said:
Yes the Wii is selling very good but....

1. The software isnt selling the best. The software that really only sells on it is Wii sports or that other one with a free Wii mote (wii play?). Mario did sell well but far behind what people thought. In Japan that game didnt sell even close to what people were predicting.

However it sells more software week after week since Galaxy was released. And don't say "it's because wii sports" because the 360 has 2 games counted with most of its sales.

And mario galaxy it's on path to become the best selling Mario 3d game ever. So I'm not sure what you are talking about.


Yes 1st party can sell great on a Nintendo system (like Mario) but 3rd party cant. The only million selling 3rd party games are Gutar Hero 3, Red Steel, Rayman Rabbits, and Resident Evil 4. Thts not counting Mario and Sonic because Mario is a household first party nintendo character. Anyways thats good sales for third party beside the fact that 2 were launch titles. Then Guitar Hero sells well on any console. For Resident Evil 4, that was a port from one of the greatest games of all time so I dont blame people for buying that.

Look at the 360. 23 out of 29 of the million sellers are 3rd party. 2/4 of the PS3 million sellers are third party. I dont think a console can win without 3rd party support. All that it seems like sells on the console is either first party games or just mini games. I think people will get bored of it. I dont expect any huge games like GTA, Resident Evil (numbered ones beside the port), MGS, Call of Duty (numbered), or a lot others to be on the Wii because no matter what you think Graphics do matter.

Personally I think the PS3 will make a come back and end up selling more then the 360 and the Wii. Given it might not be when the PS4 comes out but since Sony consoles last years after the new one comes out I think that give PS3 a good chance. Plus look at the big games comming out in the future. MGS4, GTA4, RE5, God of War 3, Resistance 2, and many others. The Wii in my opinion only has 2 huge games comming out in 2008. Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros Brawl. Although those games could seal the deal. Super Smash Bros will probally end up being the best selling game of next year (Not counting GTA on both 360 and PS3).

Im kinda rambling back in forward. So if you can understand that good if not sorry. Im kind of tired so im typing in circles. Anyways in the end to sum it up for you I think the PS3 will sell the most this Gen (not counting DS).


Whoa whoa whoa back up there chief.  Wii has 5 3rd party million sellers.  You can complain all you want about Mario being a first party character but M&S was developed and published by Sega (excpet for Japan where it was published by Nintendo).  They may have "cheated" by using Mario, but it's absolutely third party.  

You are also comparing Wii 3rd party game sales to the the 360 without taking other factors into account:

1.) Advertising.  Wii 3rd party games have recieved slim to no advertising, whereas most 360 million sellers are heavily advertised.  This is a 3rd party decision, and not a fault of the Wii.

2.) Quality.  Quality may not affect system sales, but it absolutely affects individual game sales.  The quality of 3rd party Wii games is nowhere near up to the standards of the quality of 360 (or even PS3) 3rd party games.  The companies who have put forth major effort on the Wii have certainly seen signifficant returns on their investments.  The only major exception to this would be Zack & Wiki, but the game had awful retail support and no advertising. :(

3.) Development costs.  Professional estimates say the average Wii game costs 1/2 - 2/3 as much as the average PS3 or 360 game.  Because of this, comparing sales directly is not a good direct comparison of profits or profit opportunities.  Less development cost makes for less risk.  Less chances of a megaflop (Stranglehold, The Darkness, Kane & Lynch, Sonic the Hedgehog, etc.).  It also means most Wii games won't have to sell 1 million to make a profit.