I'll go out on a limb and say that the wii will never have a lead of over 20 million over the ps3. I expect a lead of roughly 15-17 million by which time their sales should be about even.
Reason for this is I think Sony will have two price cuts next year and in combination with their great lineup next year it is possible for them to double this year's sales.

I agree, price is definetly one of the "first appearance factors" but I think in snowball like fashion the momentum grows and grows. There are ofcourse other things that exsist - new colors , and price cuts. Everyone goes on and on about the PS3 getting cheaper, but some technologies can only go so low, and that includes HD's, which do not generally get cheaper, they normally get replaced by larger models, while the smaller versions get a small price cut to clear them out - as I have seen - in any event, eventually sony may be able to break even with their PS3 (eventually that is) but the Wii already sells for a profit. Sooner or later there will be a price cut for the Wii, a new model perhaps, or some more pack in games , just think of what it will do then - and it only has to do so once sales decrease, whenever that may be.

""I'll go out on a limb and say that the wii will never have a lead of over 20 million over the ps3. I expect a lead of roughly 15-17 million by which time their sales should be about even.""

==> I believe too
a +20M lead is too high

I also doubt could increase so much her sales rate
It is already competing versus PS2/Xbox360 arcade
It will soon compete with Xbox360 premium too and maybe the PS3.

I believe Wiifit will keep the hype high (maybe extemely high) but I m not sure nintendo is able to bring a news casual weapon for Xmas2008.

 I agree with you're assessment unless Nintendo pulls some sort of stunt like dropping the price to $150.  At that price point, we are likely to see an entirely new rush of buyers that are waiting for a < $200 price point, particularly teens with part-time jobs who are very price sensitive.

But of course this would mean that Nintendo would have to really load up the channel for the rush... and that it would decide *not* to milk what they're currently earning per machine.  Does anyone have any idea how Nintendo's balance sheet looks right now?

If price was a factor, the Gamecube woulda sold bucket loads.

@ Jigglypuff: As I said before, price is 'a' factor, not 'the' factor. Regardless of its' end position, Gamecube sales rose dramatically when its' price dropped.

Price is a factor.  The leading game system is determined by the casual gamer sales.  This has been proven time and time again.  There are only a few factors though, and people tend to over-analyze things.  The things that determine the best selling console are:

Price of Console
Quantity of Games
Price of Games
Press
Word of mouth

That's really it... you can go into quality and such all you want but the fact is the average consumer doesn't know shit about review scores.  All they know is which console has the most games on the wall in the EB Games.  We, the core gamers, who pay attention to review scores, follow internet news, and know things like sales data are less than 20% of the market.

The Gamecube was cheaper at launch than the Wii though, atleast it was where I live
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/new_media/1943247.stm

At the end of the day if consumers dont like the product they wont buy it at any price. If the PS3 was as popular as the PS2, im sure it woulda sold even at its crazy launch price. Price isnt *that* big a deal.

Having a console that cheap can just give it a bad imagine ("whys it so cheap compared to the ps2? must be crap"), which is something im sure the Gamecube went through. Although this is just from my own experience...

Naz is right. One of the big reason the Wii is selling so well IS because of it's price.