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libellule said:
""I'll go out on a limb and say that the wii will never have a lead of over 20 million over the ps3. I expect a lead of roughly 15-17 million by which time their sales should be about even.""

==> I believe too
a +20M lead is too high

I also doubt could increase so much her sales rate
It is already competing versus PS2/Xbox360 arcade
It will soon compete with Xbox360 premium too and maybe the PS3.

I believe Wiifit will keep the hype high (maybe extemely high) but I m not sure nintendo is able to bring a news casual weapon for Xmas2008.

 I agree with you're assessment unless Nintendo pulls some sort of stunt like dropping the price to $150.  At that price point, we are likely to see an entirely new rush of buyers that are waiting for a < $200 price point, particularly teens with part-time jobs who are very price sensitive.

 

But of course this would mean that Nintendo would have to really load up the channel for the rush... and that it would decide *not* to milk what they're currently earning per machine.  Does anyone have any idea how Nintendo's balance sheet looks right now?