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Slimebeast on 23 December 2008
PalmiNio said:
Slimebeast said:

I don't trust iSuppli. We have an insider source (aka drkohler lol) here on VGC that says the PS3 costs a lot less than $450 to manufacture - actually $100 less, which supports my price drop perdiction perfectly lol:

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1562724

 

 

 

So you're basicly saying that a forum user on VGchartz is a better source than one of the biggest companies in the world when it comes to chain valuation and distribution calculation.

Sometimes i wonder if people know who iSuppli is............they're not just an analasies firm.......and not a newspaper.

Not saying they are 100% right but the numbers are propably not to far of, not 100 dollars any way.

I've read drkohlers statment which has no connection to reality. If Arcade was produced at 240 and other on 270 MS game division would show HUGE drops cause SW don't render that much. And do you honestly belive that PS3 is only 100 dollar more expensive to make then Arcade?

Hate to use the word, but his "facts" are just fanboy statement on the subject. I don't know the truth but if one company with only 1 console generates a good amount of money I know that they're not selling an Arcade for 199 dollars when the cost pf production is 240 (then you have to include "other expenses", taxes, VAT and sellers margins which brings it up to around 299) and if the other company has 3 console with 2 of them selling with a good margin, tons of SW sales and still the hole division is truggeling to make profit well that tells me that the third machine have a great cost just on selling.

 

 Hehe. Personally I feel that the truf is inbetween iSUppli and drkohler - rufly $375 to create a PS3. I don't have any facts to base that feeling on though lol.

Thus, assumin a $375 loss I believe Sony will drop by $100 (member they dropped by that price twice already in PS3s short history) in Spring - and take maybe as much as a $75 loss on each unit sold, but I fink they just have to accept that since the X360 has all too strong momentum if they dont radically drop PS3 price.

 



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Avinash_Tyagi on 23 December 2008
Legend11 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Legend11 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Kzoellner said:
wii- 60 mil
ps3 (with price cut)- 37 mil
360 - 40 mil

 

 Even ignoring the outlandishness of the PS3 and 360 predictions, your Wii prediction is insane, it'll be around 46 million by end of year, and will defintely sell more than 14 million next year

 

And your minimum level for the 360 being 3 million next year doesn't seem outlandish to you?  It sold over 10 million this year, part of that at a higher price point, and you seem to feel that sales are going to plummit for it next year?  Possibly to 3 million?  That seems far more outlandish to me actually.

 

 No, its less outlandish to see the 360 selling only 3 million as a low end of a range than to have the Wii sell only 14 million, Wii can do that in a matter of a few weeks with enough stock

 

It takes a big man to admit they were wrong.

 

 Except I'm not wrong :p

 

But I am a bigger man then most here, truly a man among men, a titan, and humble too :p ;)



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

billsalias on 23 December 2008

Wii: 77
360: 39
PS3: 32

I think with a $50 price cut and some great games the PS3 will briefly be ahead of the 360 then level off by end of year to a nearly dead even race with 360. I do not think MS will cut price unless Sony does better then I expect.

I am assuming the Wii supply increase is permanent and that we are going to see a soft landing for it this year as it begins to meet demand. It will level off at about 30M a year for a couple of years before a slow decline.

I do not think PS3/360 will falter as much as 2nd and 3rd place have in the past because of how different they are from the Wii. I expect all 3 consoles to settle in to a consistent weekly market share by end of 2009 of about 21/21/58 and stay there until someone release a new console.



Kantor on 24 December 2008
selnor said:

The 360 is likely to finish with about 28 - 28.5 million.

By the time 2009 is done and dusted does anyone think the 360 can have the figure of 44 million? Surely it will do 40 - 42 by the end of 2009?

With that said can PS3 make at least 30 million by 2009 end?

What are your thoughts.

IMO the 360 can do extremely well for itself. It should easily clear 50 million and possibly clear 60 as well depending on how M$ support it through 2010 and 2011. I predict it could hit 70 million +.

I don't think the 360 will do 44 million by the end of 2009. Sony will have done a price cut by then, that's pretty much certain, and it will shift a lot of the momentum. 44 million would require the 360 to sell 16 million units in one year. It cannot do that.

I'm going to predict:

Wii: 75-80 million

X360: 40 million

PS3: 34 million



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

RayRay102 on 24 December 2008

Wii = 66,855,001
x360= 42,360,464
PS3 = 27,365,348



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Kantor on 24 December 2008

What? The PS3 will sell worse next year than it did this year? And the 360 will sell almost on par with the Wii?



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Khuutra on 24 December 2008

I move that everyone add their predictions to their sigs, and note the date on which these predictions were made.

Only thing is? You can't change them. If you do, you must leave the old prediction in addition to the new one.



Showertea on 24 December 2008

Anyone who puts Nintendo at less than 70 mill. is deluding themselves. The system's been growing YOY and it's on track to sell 25 mill in '08, putting it at 45 mill. So if it sells as well in 2009 as it did in 2008, it'll hit 70 mill exactly.

My estimates in the form of absolute lowest possible - my estimate - absolute highest possible.
Wii: 70- 76.5- 85
360: 33- 35.3- 40
PS3: 23- 27.2- 32
My estimates are based on rough estimations of sales. My minimums are low for the 360 and the PS3 because there's a small chance that one or the other just stops selling, even though it's very unlikely.



Wii has more 20 million sellers than PS3 has 5 million sellers.

Acolyte of Disruption

Valkyria00 on 24 December 2008

360 - 36 Million
Wii - 78 Million
PS3 - 27 Million



Final-Fan on 24 December 2008

It was one thing for Avinash to have insanely optimistic Wii predictions -- when we really had no idea how high demand truly was. But these insanely PESSIMISTIC 360 predictions only make Avinash look very, very foolish.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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