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Seece on 24 December 2008
GTAIV08 said:
ps3 without price cut would probably easily do 30 million by the end of 2009 so i dont know how some of you even think with the price cut it will only do that much! if ps3 stays at the same price it is, then it will easily do 30 million by 2009 but if there was a price drop it would easily do 35 million maybe even 40 million, if sony time it perfectly around abig release. there are some damn big releases for ps3 next year! final fantasy in japan and GT5 everywhere.

the 360 will probably be around 38- 40 million and i aint even going to bother with the wii.

 

Well its barely done 10 million this year so how do you expect it to do that again next year without a price cut? Oh let me guess games.



 

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Kantor on 24 December 2008
Showertea said:
Anyone who puts Nintendo at less than 70 mill. is deluding themselves. The system's been growing YOY and it's on track to sell 25 mill in '08, putting it at 45 mill. So if it sells as well in 2009 as it did in 2008, it'll hit 70 mill exactly.

My estimates in the form of absolute lowest possible - my estimate - absolute highest possible.
Wii: 70- 76.5- 85
360: 33- 35.3- 40
PS3: 23- 27.2- 32
My estimates are based on rough estimations of sales. My minimums are low for the 360 and the PS3 because there's a small chance that one or the other just stops selling, even though it's very unlikely.

What? You think it can sell 4 million in one year? That is less than 77k a week. That is downright ridiculous. Why would it stop selling? 2009 has the best PS3 lineup of any year so far, there will probably be a price cut, and for god's sake, it has GT5.

That's like saying the Wii will stop selling.

Oh, same for the 360. What you've put for minimum for 360 I would put as my estimate for PS3.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

TWRoO on 24 December 2008
Kantor said:
Showertea said:
Anyone who puts Nintendo at less than 70 mill. is deluding themselves. The system's been growing YOY and it's on track to sell 25 mill in '08, putting it at 45 mill. So if it sells as well in 2009 as it did in 2008, it'll hit 70 mill exactly.

My estimates in the form of absolute lowest possible - my estimate - absolute highest possible.
Wii: 70- 76.5- 85
360: 33- 35.3- 40
PS3: 23- 27.2- 32
My estimates are based on rough estimations of sales. My minimums are low for the 360 and the PS3 because there's a small chance that one or the other just stops selling, even though it's very unlikely.

What? You think it can sell 4 million in one year? That is less than 77k a week. That is downright ridiculous. Why would it stop selling? 2009 has the best PS3 lineup of any year so far, there will probably be a price cut, and for god's sake, it has GT5.

That's like saying the Wii will stop selling.

Oh, same for the 360. What you've put for minimum for 360 I would put as my estimate for PS3.

He explained his low estimates as being the possibility one of them bombs next year, a-la dreamcast early death.

To be honest it is not much more idiotic than anyone predicting under 70 million for the Wii.

Personally, using a similar format to his, I don't think the failure of either of the HD consoles would be so dramatic, even if they do crumple to be discontinued in 2010 they should still sell a decent 5-6 million for 2009. So:
(numbers in millions)

Console Minimum Expected range Maximum
Wii 70 75-78 82
X360 34m 37-38 42
PS3 25m 30-31 33

 

 



allergic on 24 December 2008
zleep said:
I guess you would think it twice if you were betting real money.

 

 

time will tell.



Avinash_Tyagi on 24 December 2008
Final-Fan said:
It was one thing for Avinash to have insanely optimistic Wii predictions -- when we really had no idea how high demand truly was. But these insanely PESSIMISTIC 360 predictions only make Avinash look very, very foolish.

 

 I'm not being pessimistic, i'm being realistic, this is 360's fourth year, and there will be likely be a slowdown in its sales, so 35 million as the top of the range is not unrealistic at all



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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GTAIV08 on 24 December 2008
seece said:
GTAIV08 said:
ps3 without price cut would probably easily do 30 million by the end of 2009 so i dont know how some of you even think with the price cut it will only do that much! if ps3 stays at the same price it is, then it will easily do 30 million by 2009 but if there was a price drop it would easily do 35 million maybe even 40 million, if sony time it perfectly around abig release. there are some damn big releases for ps3 next year! final fantasy in japan and GT5 everywhere.

the 360 will probably be around 38- 40 million and i aint even going to bother with the wii.

 

Well its barely done 10 million this year so how do you expect it to do that again next year without a price cut? Oh let me guess games.

 

and how exactly do you know how much ps3 has sold this year or 360 and wii for that matter? taking vgchartz as official sources now are we?



Avinash_Tyagi on 24 December 2008
GTAIV08 said:
seece said:
GTAIV08 said:
ps3 without price cut would probably easily do 30 million by the end of 2009 so i dont know how some of you even think with the price cut it will only do that much! if ps3 stays at the same price it is, then it will easily do 30 million by 2009 but if there was a price drop it would easily do 35 million maybe even 40 million, if sony time it perfectly around abig release. there are some damn big releases for ps3 next year! final fantasy in japan and GT5 everywhere.

the 360 will probably be around 38- 40 million and i aint even going to bother with the wii.

 

Well its barely done 10 million this year so how do you expect it to do that again next year without a price cut? Oh let me guess games.

 

and how exactly do you know how much ps3 has sold this year or 360 and wii for that matter? taking vgchartz as official sources now are we?

 

 VGchartz is pretty close to the actual sales figures



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Snake612 on 24 December 2008

I can't really make a good predicition of what will happen by the end of 2009 but all I can say is Sony would be making a great profit off of the ps3 by that time.



TO GOD BE THE GLORY

Avinash_Tyagi on 24 December 2008
Snake612 said:
I can't really make a good predicition of what will happen by the end of 2009 but all I can say is Sony would be making a great profit off of the ps3 by that time.

 

 Not if they price drop again



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Seece on 24 December 2008
GTAIV08 said:
seece said:
GTAIV08 said:
ps3 without price cut would probably easily do 30 million by the end of 2009 so i dont know how some of you even think with the price cut it will only do that much! if ps3 stays at the same price it is, then it will easily do 30 million by 2009 but if there was a price drop it would easily do 35 million maybe even 40 million, if sony time it perfectly around abig release. there are some damn big releases for ps3 next year! final fantasy in japan and GT5 everywhere.

the 360 will probably be around 38- 40 million and i aint even going to bother with the wii.

 

Well its barely done 10 million this year so how do you expect it to do that again next year without a price cut? Oh let me guess games.

 

and how exactly do you know how much ps3 has sold this year or 360 and wii for that matter? taking vgchartz as official sources now are we?

Well yes that is why I'm on the site .. and even so VGChartz is never that far wrong.