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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

Wii - Almost certainly going to be the only console this gen to go over a hundred million, but at the very least going doing better than the NES. I'll say 70 million as my lowest estimate.

Xbox 360 - For now it's selling slightly better than the original, launched much earlier, and has way more exclusives. There's a good chance it'll sell extremely well after more big games arrive, prices drop, and the hardware issues are fixed, but assuming it doesn't pick up I'm estimating a minimum of 30 million units. I mean there's really no chance of it doing worse than the original Xbox anymore.

PS3 - It would seem only a few here agree with me on this, but I believe there is a good chance the PS3 will have a very short lifespan. It achieved notable launch numbers due to the amount of people who were ready to buy the next Playstation regardless of cost or games, but sales have slowed to completely abysmal levels. It still has a lot of exclusives that are too far in development to cancel, and probably under contract not to go multi-plat, but if those don't seriously boost sales then it's extremely likely the next wave of notable exclusives will skip it entirely. If the suits in charge of Sony decide the PS3 is an unrecoverable mess, then they might well cancel it before it hits even ten million units. That's still very unlikely, so I'll say a minimum of 20 million. Even that sounds a bit high for the worst case scenario, as that's what Nintendo got with their notably better (selling) first party software and a console with 1/3 the price.



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PS3:
Low end: 18 million
Actual expectations: 26 million
High end: 35 million

That's right, 35 million is the absolute highest I can imagine PS3 selling. It will not reach a mass market price for at least 5 years, at which point the generation will be all but over. Its lineup of killer apps (GT, GTA, FF, MGS) is roughly comparable to the cream of N64s lineup, except that it relies on third parties and includes a non-exclusive. I can't see it doing less than 10 million in America, 3 million in Japan, and 5 million in Europe, though, and realistically I expect it to do 13/4/9.


360:
Low end: 24 million
Actual expectations: 32 million
High end: 40 million

With sales diminishing in America, things are looking down for 360. It can no longer be argued that a price cut will help the console compete with Wii, it needs a price cut just to get back to XBox levels. With the current sub-XBox level of sales, that leaves 360 at about XBox's total even with an extra 2 years on the market, due to the sales slowdown 2nd and 3rd place consoles experience late in the cycle. However, I expect Halo and GTA are going to provide a major boost for the console, and think the differences between Wii and 360 as opposed to PS2 and XB will help 360 maintain higher long term sales than previous 2nd place consoles, which would help the console move well beyond XBox.

Wii:
Low end: 80 million
Actual expectations: 150 million
High end: 40 gazillion??

Nintendo would really have to blow it to sell less than 100 million. (I think videogames have reached a point where the winning console is ALWAYS going to sell 100 million.) I see them selling over 30 million in Japan, over 60 million in America, and over 50 million in Europe/others--basically a large incremental audience growth in some ways similar to PSone. But if they screw over Europe completely, doubt their American success and focus on Japan too much, and then only reach PS2-levels in Japan instead of drafting off of DS, they could only reach maybe 80 million. There's always the possibility Wii is bigger than anyone can imagine, too, thus my 40 gazillion top end.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

these are all worst case scenarios, unless of course we see another global market crash, then anything goes

360: 30 Mil, even if everything goes wrong and Sony winns again 30 Mil is the minimum,

PS3: 20 Mil, I know this sounds like a bash but considering it´s price and considering everything that (still) can go wrong goes wrong, all the High Dev games go to the 360 the PS3 would crash worse than the 360 with a lower price and the head start,

Wii: 50 Mil, again this sound like a fanboy statement but there just isn´t so much that can go wrong for Nintendo, even if this unrealistic fad argument catches on and everybody needs HD by next year and all the third parties leave and the new demographics lose interest, Nintendo still has it´s own stuff and will sell at leastl 2-3 times what the GC did,

I just now see that naznatips copied my ideas before I posted them, well great minds think alike

@ kber: if you think Sony can sell 70 Mil if everything and I mean EVERYTHING goes wrong what will they sell if everything goes right ??? 200 Mil, I know it can have a long livetime but 70 Mil is really high for a WORST case scenarion, 50 Mil, ok but even the N64 only soled 60something Mil. and it was far from beeing a worst case scenario, but thats ok, who knows maybe I just don´t give the Playstation brand the respect it deserves  



 

 

 

PS3 - 30M
Wii - 80M
Xbox360 - 45M



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Xbox 360 - 30 million
Being a lowest estimate we must assume the worst. If PS3 takes off with Blu-ray and drops the price into a market friendly range then this will have severe impact on 360's install base.

Wii - 50 million
With the momentum that it has with the general public, even if it faulters in this and starts to drop hype it will still be carried by the underpublic which are those thousands or millions of followers who buy a popular product on its way out. Especially with price drops. This is assuming that Wii becomes a fad though, which is a pretty big assumption.

PS3 - 17 million
Assuming that Blu-ray gets skipped altogether and digital downloads take off or Sony decides to stop making the PS3 due to low sales or cannot drop the price enough to make a difference or does something else stupid like bringing in something more expensive with more power or any combination of these.



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El Duderino said:

@ kber: if you think Sony can sell 70 Mil if everything and I mean EVERYTHING goes wrong what will they sell if everything goes right ??? 200 Mil, I know it can have a long livetime but 70 Mil is really high for a WORST case scenarion, 50 Mil, ok but even the N64 only soled 60something Mil. and it was far from beeing a worst case scenario, but thats ok, who knows maybe I just don´t give the Playstation brand the respect it deserves


Hmm, I believe this generation will be the longest so far (10 years or more) so my number is pretty high. 6-7 million a year... More than 120 million if everything goes right. I think PS3 will be cheaper than $300 for most of its life.



Worst case scenarios:

Wii - 45m.
Nintendo's momentum dies in 2008 as third party developers find that they are losing sales again to Nintendo's own offerings. The "waggle" and graphics become unappealing as more people move to HD sets.

360 - 33m.
I don't see how the 360 can possibly do worse than the original Xbox. Add in the extra year of life and the fact that it STILL hasn't seen a price drop and ~10m more than the original 'box is the worst I see it doing.

PS3- 21m.
Again, worst case. MGS and FF go to 360, price drops don't come quickly enough, Blu-Ray adoption rates stagnate.

More realistic but still pessimistic predictions:

Wii - 60m.
360 - 38m.
PS3 - 33m.




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Desroko said:
jlauro said:
Note: These numbers assume hardware revs, such as PS2 to PS2 slim are counted together. I also expect the market size to grow significantly, to at least 300 Mil.

Seems a little high. If I had to do a mid-level prediction, 200 mil would probably be my bet. Near 100% growth, while pretty cool, seems like too much to hope for.


Maybe, but... that number wasn't worst case...  I am expecting a higer % of people with 2 or 3 consoles from this generation of current video game users. Also, expanded audiance range increasing average age of consumer, a much higher increase in sales to females, and more countries. A big boost from China by the end of the generation alone could really increase WW numbers.



El Duderino said:

70 Mil if everything and I mean EVERYTHING goes wrong what will they sell if everything goes right ??? 200 Mil, I know it can have a long livetime but 70 Mil is really high for a WORST case scenarion, 50 Mil, ok but even the N64 only soled 60something Mil. and it was far from beeing a worst case scenario, but thats ok, who knows maybe I just don´t give the Playstation brand the respect it deserves


Could we try to keep this thread for making predictions instead of clogging it up with arguing, please? 



four more predictions and i'll do an average.



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When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

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