Xbox 360 - 30 million
Being a lowest estimate we must assume the worst. If PS3 takes off with Blu-ray and drops the price into a market friendly range then this will have severe impact on 360's install base.
Wii - 50 million
With the momentum that it has with the general public, even if it faulters in this and starts to drop hype it will still be carried by the underpublic which are those thousands or millions of followers who buy a popular product on its way out. Especially with price drops. This is assuming that Wii becomes a fad though, which is a pretty big assumption.
PS3 - 17 million
Assuming that Blu-ray gets skipped altogether and digital downloads take off or Sony decides to stop making the PS3 due to low sales or cannot drop the price enough to make a difference or does something else stupid like bringing in something more expensive with more power or any combination of these.
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