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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

seece said:
Alterego-X said:
Kantor said:
A lot of people are STILL posting unreasonably low. Like PS3 stopping at 23 million? WTF? It'll be there by like May...

 

Presuming that it will be in the race in May at all!

The European Sony gaming chief, David Reeves, literally admitted that they are fighting against the company's "Hmm, I'm not sure I want to be in this business at all." -thoughts.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/feb/05/david-reeves-sony-europe-losses

 

I admit that this is not the most likely outcome, but it is still realistic enough, that I wouldn't be shocked if it would happen.

The 360 won't get axed, because even though it has worse overall financial results than the PS3, Microsoft is willing to lose that money for eliminating the PS brand, for future purposes.

Still incredibly unlikely the PS3 will get discontinued, if anything had to happen like that I think tey would relaunch the console again when its cheaper to make. 360 Won't get discontinued because Microsoft are making a profit on it!

 

If the PS3 continues to be a burden on the company they may have no other choice but to axe it. Cut off the cancerous tumor to save the rest of the body, and whatnot.

 




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Kantor said:
LOL@ first few posts. Some of the most pessimistic predictions I have ever seen. People put the Wii at 40 million minimum? And laughed at Rol when he said 110 million was a minimum for the Wii? GOLD!

Anyway, some more updated predictions:

PS3: 50 million
Xbox 360: 50 million
Wii: 125 million

The first few posts on this thread were in June of 2007 where the XBox 360 had sold 10 million units, the Wii had sold 8 million units and the PS3 had sold 4 million units worldwide. The "Lowest realistic expectations" for each of the platforms at that time would have been dependant on a scenario close-to the worst case for one platform going up against a scenario close to the best case for the other platforms ... For the past two years we have not seen a much more mixed scenario than people would have assumed to make these predictions, and as a result the platforms are (already) outperforming the minimums people predicted.

Basically, had Blu-Ray lost out to HD-DVD and Microsoft secured exclusivity for Grand Theft Auto 4, Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, Fallout 3, Assassin's Creed, and the Call of Duty games how well would the PS3 be selling today?

At the same time, had Blu-Ray became the must have product for 2008, Sony had been able to aggressively reduce the price of the PS3 to match the XBox 360, and the Red-Ring of Death become a well known problem giving the XBox 360 the reputation as a system that needs to be replaced every year how well would the XBox 360 have performed?

 



seece said:

360 Won't get discontinued because Microsoft are making a profit on it!

 

 

Actually they are making profits on their games division, and it is another divison that covers the warranties and gives away millions of free 360's due to its Epic failure rate.



Wii - 200 million

which is low. at this same time it's life cycle the PS2 was at 26-7 million and the Wii is at 46 million. PS2 is at about 150..or will probably end there...so Wii with nearly twice the sales...300 million?


PS3 - 65 million


is tracking 6-7 million consoles less than the PS2 was, but 3-4 million better than XBOX360...


Xbox360 - 50 million

Xbox 1 is tracked slightly lower than 360, but was discontinued in it's 4th year..this is the 360's 4th, a shift could move to the next gen in the next year or two..Idk..tracking below PS3 at the same time..but an early launch of it's next gen console could sink the PS3 with it and make Sony force there hand.



Wii worst case: 120 million
Wii expected: 160 million

PS3 worst case: 50 million
PS3 expected: 65 million

360 worst case: 50 million
360 expected: 60 million



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Alterego-X said:
seece said:

360 Won't get discontinued because Microsoft are making a profit on it!

 

 

Actually they are making profits on their games division, and it is another divison that covers the warranties and gives away millions of free 360's due to its Epic failure rate.

Well if you want to get that specific, they're making a profit from the E& D division. What I meant was Project Xbox is now profitable and its more than likely the arcade is sold at a small loss and the Pro and Elite make a small profit.

 

Microsoft don't give away millions of free 360's. The failure rate isn't so "Epic" anymore and an RROD 360 can be repaired and sent back out.

 



 

The first few pages are hilarious, even TheSource, who is every Wii fans favourite mod was being overly pessimistic!
I also love how Rol stated that most 3rd party dev's were shifting their support over to the Wii already back then. Where are these games? Surely with the short production times and low production price there should be a whole lot more 3rd party goodness there by now?

I'm not trying to diss anyone, I didn't even know this thread existed (it was before my time in here) but my point is that everyone f's up and makes mistakes and bad judgements/predictions regardless of preferred platform and games. Let's all do the boards a favour and remember that the next time someone pulls the high and mighty card.



Slimebeast said:
Wii worst case: 120 million
Wii expected: 160 million

PS3 worst case: 50 million
PS3 expected: 65 million

360 worst case: 50 million
360 expected: 60 million

Agree with this though PS3 and 360 expected may be switched.


Oh man. I was such a fanboy.



@Soriku

I hope so. ^^

@Rath

lol, what did you predict then?