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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

HappySqurriel said:

After 10 months of dominance we are starting to see major publishers (Capcom) bring major franchises (Moster Hunter) to be exclusive to the Wii, what will 3 years of dominance do?

The first 12 to 18 months are the most critical time for a console to establish itself in the eyes of publishers and consumers; by the time 24 months have passed with unimpressive sales Sony will have to find some way to pay off major publishers to release exclusive games for their system and by the 36th month they will have to find some way to pay off major publisher to release games for their system.

Right now Nintendo and Microsoft are lobbying every developer in the world to not only ensure that they receive versions of games but also that the PS3 doesn't get a version of these games. I'm positive that Nintendo's one line sales pitch of "The Wii will have three times the userbase of the PS3, and developement on the Wii costs on third that of development on the PS3." will be far more effective than you'd imagine.


Publishers are jumping on the Wii bandwagon, although we have yet to see a good selection of 3rd party games appear for the Wii though.  This will IMHO take another 6-12 months to happen.  I honestly think that developers are caught in the middle.  They want to take their games to the next level utilising the power of next generation gaming, but they cannot afford to take huge hits on unpopular games on small userbases.  The Wii will allow them to create smaller last generation games and make a good profit on a continually growing userbase, but developers WILL need to make the jump to next gen at some stage as they will be left out again when this generation finishes and they haven't developed tools at a higher level.

One thing you need to think about is this.  Is the Wiiremote enough to keep a generation of gamers away from the PS3 and 360 entirely?  

I honestly think that most of the big publishers/developers are waiting to see what happens with the PS3 before they decide to leave it for dead, this is why 2008 primarily will be a decided year for the PS3.

Also, why are developers making 360 and PS3 versions of games when the 360 has 3 times the user base at the moment?  Because there is a loyalty and a knowledge that the PS3 won't die anytime soon!

You mention unimpressive sales of the PS3...compared to what....the Wii.  The PS3 has virtually sold the same number compared to the 360 in the same timeframe.  Yes, compared to the 12m Wii consoles (7m more), it does look weak.  Also by the time the PS3 has been on the market the 18 months, we could see as many as 12-15m PS3's worldwide, which is not a low number by normal sales. 



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

Around the Network
davygee said:

Publishers are jumping on the Wii bandwagon, although we have yet to see a good selection of 3rd party games appear for the Wii though.  This will IMHO take another 6-12 months to happen.  I honestly think that developers are caught in the middle.  They want to take their games to the next level utilising the power of next generation gaming, but they cannot afford to take huge hits on unpopular games on small userbases.  The Wii will allow them to create smaller last generation games and make a good profit on a continually growing userbase, but developers WILL need to make the jump to next gen at some stage as they will be left out again when this generation finishes and they haven't developed tools at a higher level.

One thing you need to think about is this.  Is the Wiiremote enough to keep a generation of gamers away from the PS3 and 360 entirely?  

I honestly think that most of the big publishers/developers are waiting to see what happens with the PS3 before they decide to leave it for dead, this is why 2008 primarily will be a decided year for the PS3.

Also, why are developers making 360 and PS3 versions of games when the 360 has 3 times the user base at the moment?  Because there is a loyalty and a knowledge that the PS3 won't die anytime soon!

You mention unimpressive sales of the PS3...compared to what....the Wii.  The PS3 has virtually sold the same number compared to the 360 in the same timeframe.  Yes, compared to the 12m Wii consoles (7m more), it does look weak.  Also by the time the PS3 has been on the market the 18 months, we could see as many as 12-15m PS3's worldwide, which is not a low number by normal sales. 

The PS3 is selling at a very similar rate to the XBox 360, XBox and Gamecube and is selling worldwide at approximately the rate the PS2 did in Japan; all else being equal this would mean that you would anticipate the PS3 selling less than 30 Million units worldwide after 5 years.

Certainly, developers will continue to produce games with higher graphical content and release them as multiplatform games across the PS3, XBox 360 and PC. The real problem for the HD consoles is the resource breakdown; if the Wii gets equal development resources it will receive 2 to 4 times as many games in the same timeframe and if the Wii outsells the XBox 360 and PS3 combined I would expect that it would have at least an equal distribution of resources as those two platforms.

What this means is (as an example) Square Enix will release Final Fantasy XIV as a PS3 and XBox 360 multiplatform game and the Wii will only receive Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest X and Crono Trigger.



Minimums for the generation:

PS3 - 18 million: Sony has proven that it's dedicated to turning the system around, but there's still a big hill to climb. I'm curious to see how the 40GB version affects sales.
Xbox 360 - 28 million: They've got a strong base of games, the system isn't going anywhere, but is the audience expanding?
Wii - 35 million: this is in the scenario that the new gamers lose interest and therefore Nintendo loses a ton of momentum in the next 6-12 months.



Davygee, if you are saying that PS3 (and 360) are both doing quite well and having 'normal' console sales, which they are pretty normal if comparing to older generations (30million in 5 years is good) and you agree that the Wii is doing phenomonally well at the moment, how can you predict a mere 160million total home consoles for the end of this gen.....i think 180M is the minimum this time in reality, admitedly the amazing success of the DS and very good second place sales for PSP must be taking some possible home console sales away, but it will not be that much.
Consider that there is no PSP and the DS is doing the same as older N-handhelds, the last gen will finish with roughly 180million sales (inc DC)....A lower than normal increase in the home console numbers would still get 210 million this gen, yet you have 50million less than that.



@ TWRoO

The last gen was or is around 170m.  I have stated on my chart that this only goes up to the end of 2012, I have already stated that IMHO the PS3 could be around for another year or two after that deadline.

Yes, it must seem unusual that I have said that all three next gen consoles will assist in a total approx of 160m which is 10m less than last gen.  And I do understand and believe that the Wii has brought more casual gamers to this generation than ever before, but I doubt this will result in any more than 10-20m and that is being ridiculously generous IMHO.

The factor that IS in this generation and not last, is the DS and PSP.  Yes you will get people that buy both a handheld and home console, but the PSP in particular will push people towards the handheld market and away from the home console market.  Look at the ipod and how it's probably stopped people buying a home hifi system?  And the PSP now has video out which will allow handheld gamers to play on the big screen.

As I've said before, I reckon the DS and PSP will rack up between 130-160m between them over the course of their lifespan.

Also, don't forget the price of the next gen consoles as well.  They are much more expensive overall compared to the last gen.

Yes, there were handhelds last gen..there was the GBA...the GBA sold very well...but it didn't sell as well as the DS has...and on top of that, we have good sales of the PSP.  In the first 3 years, the GBA sold just under 50m; the DS and PSP have sold around 80m in total.  Surely this will have an impact on the purchases of home consoles?



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

Around the Network

The only reason the GBA sold a 'mere 80 million' is because of it's short life, the DS and PSP stopped it selling.

And yes i did forget about price, so that will put some off, but i still dont think PSP/DS will put as many off as you think, i mean you are still not including any normal expansion of the industry (at least to 200-210M...and thats only a small amount becuase the industry was supposedly stagnating) then you say 10M for Wiis blue ocean (sounds reasonable to me)
so that would be 210-220M IF the PSP didn't exist (and DS on it's own isn't selling that much more than GBA)
Yet you are saying because of a few extra DS sales and the PSP that 50-60 million gamers will not bother with a home console.
Ok there is the high price issue as well but i would be very suprised if less than 180million consoles are sold.



Yes, I agree that normally there is industry growth, but as I've stated, price is a huge factor.  People have less money to buy things these days with big mortgages and high inflation and less disposable income...so this is a factor.

Also, maybe I am putting too much importance on the handheld factor.  But look at the Japanese market over the last few months.  And I know, the PSP Slim & Lite has just been released...but sales of the Wii, PS3 and 360 are down really low now as well.

The DS and PSP have sold 1.45m units since the start of August, whereas the next gen 3 (Wii, PS3 & 360) have only sold 4.9m.  So the handhelds together are selling 3 times as many as the next gen trio.

Yes this will change the closer it comes to Xmas and some big games appear on especially the Wii and PS3...but I fully expect the handhelds to sell much more than home consoles. 



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

davygee said:
 

Publishers are jumping on the Wii bandwagon, although we have yet to see a good selection of 3rd party games appear for the Wii though. This will IMHO take another 6-12 months to happen. I honestly think that developers are caught in the middle. They want to take their games to the next level utilising the power of next generation gaming, but they cannot afford to take huge hits on unpopular games on small userbases. The Wii will allow them to create smaller last generation games and make a good profit on a continually growing userbase, but developers WILL need to make the jump to next gen at some stage as they will be left out again when this generation finishes and they haven't developed tools at a higher level.

One thing you need to think about is this. Is the Wiiremote enough to keep a generation of gamers away from the PS3 and 360 entirely?

I honestly think that most of the big publishers/developers are waiting to see what happens with the PS3 before they decide to leave it for dead, this is why 2008 primarily will be a decided year for the PS3.

Also, why are developers making 360 and PS3 versions of games when the 360 has 3 times the user base at the moment? Because there is a loyalty and a knowledge that the PS3 won't die anytime soon!

You mention unimpressive sales of the PS3...compared to what....the Wii. The PS3 has virtually sold the same number compared to the 360 in the same timeframe. Yes, compared to the 12m Wii consoles (7m more), it does look weak. Also by the time the PS3 has been on the market the 18 months, we could see as many as 12-15m PS3's worldwide, which is not a low number by normal sales.


 You make severa assumptions here which I think are wrong. First is the idea that developers intrinsically want to develop on the "Next Gen" (PS3, 360) consoles (I also think calling them next gen and the Wii last gen is about as wrong as you can get as they are both current gen, ie. Generation the Seventh) however I see no reason why this would be so. Developing games is a very marginal business and good sales are neccesary to stay alive and sometimes even that isnt enough (I believe Take 2 is struggling despite the fact that they have had some huge hits?). The larger userbase of the Wii holds far more attraction for developers than the power of the PS3, this is only reinforced by the cost of developing games on the PS3. The reason that people develop for 360/PS3 is because that userbase is larger than the Wiis userbase and as such currently makes sense if you wish to develop a multi plat game. Exclusives however will, in my opinion, mainly either be on the Wii or be bought exclusives. There will be notable exceptions from developers such as Epic who are graphics whores =P (and brilliant at it too).

 The reason for porting to the PS3 from the 360 is because your increasing the userbase at a low cost, not because developers have a mysterious loyalty to the PS3 =



Rath said:

You make severa assumptions here which I think are wrong. First is the idea that developers intrinsically want to develop on the "Next Gen" (PS3, 360) consoles (I also think calling them next gen and the Wii last gen is about as wrong as you can get as they are both current gen, ie. Generation the Seventh) however I see no reason why this would be so. Developing games is a very marginal business and good sales are neccesary to stay alive and sometimes even that isnt enough (I believe Take 2 is struggling despite the fact that they have had some huge hits?). The larger userbase of the Wii holds far more attraction for developers than the power of the PS3, this is only reinforced by the cost of developing games on the PS3. The reason that people develop for 360/PS3 is because that userbase is larger than the Wiis userbase and as such currently makes sense if you wish to develop a multi plat game. Exclusives however will, in my opinion, mainly either be on the Wii or be bought exclusives. There will be notable exceptions from developers such as Epic who are graphics whores =P (and brilliant at it too).

The reason for porting to the PS3 from the 360 is because your increasing the userbase at a low cost, not because developers have a mysterious loyalty to the PS3 =


Firstly, although the Wii is part of the 7th generation you say.  Technically (taking the Wiiremote thingy aside), it is as powerful as a 6th generation system.  And we have yet to see anything on the system that betters games from last gen.  So technically, developers are working in a similar environment to what they have been doing since 2000.  But developers building on proper next gen platforms (360 & PS3) will need to get used to creating higher resolution textures, streaming and all sorts as well as better audio.

What I can stating is that if developer X decides not to make any games for the 360 and PS3 and solelybuilds games for the Wii until the end of it's lifespan, then they are gaining no experience in a truely HD Next Generation development environment.  And in 5/6 years time, when the next generation of gaming consoles comes around, we will all working in HD environments apart from developer X...so then they have an integration period to work out how to do things.

This is why I expect most developers will develop a "suck it and see" mentality towards truely Next Generation gaming and will dabble at some stage or not.



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

davygee said:
 


Firstly, although the Wii is part of the 7th generation you say. Technically (taking the Wiiremote thingy aside), it is as powerful as a 6th generation system. And we have yet to see anything on the system that betters games from last gen. So technically, developers are working in a similar environment to what they have been doing since 2000. But developers building on proper next gen platforms (360 & PS3) will need to get used to creating higher resolution textures, streaming and all sorts as well as better audio.

What I can stating is that if developer X decides not to make any games for the 360 and PS3 and solelybuilds games for the Wii until the end of it's lifespan, then they are gaining no experience in a truely HD Next Generation development environment. And in 5/6 years time, when the next generation of gaming consoles comes around, we will all working in HD environments apart from developer X...so then they have an integration period to work out how to do things.

This is why I expect most developers will develop a "suck it and see" mentality towards truely Next Generation gaming and will dabble at some stage or not.


 Firstly the facts: The Wii is far more powerful than anything last generation, I believe most of the approximations I have seen (you can never quite pull off direct numbers due to the different components) are that it is around 3 times more powerful than the most powerful systems of last gen.

Metroid Prime 3 has shown better graphics than any of last generations games and SMG looks like it is going to better that by a long shot.

 

Onto the opinions. There are going to be no huge advancement in power next generation, no great PS2-PS3 leaps. Why? Because this generation it failed. Badly. Even if by some miracle the PS3 changes its fortunes it has failed HUGELY its launch expectations, all due to the fact that it was so jam packed with technology that nobody could afford it.

The most likely scenario for the end of this generation now is the Wii winning, thus developers working on Nintendo consoles building up fans of series that are Nintendofied will have the advantage next generation, not those who have had experience using the 'Cell', processors of a type which I dont think will be used next gen because of their difficulty of use.

In anycase I don't think developers will think 'Oh, if we develop on HD systems now we might make a profit in 5 years time due to the next generation of consoles' due to the fact that in 5 years time said developer could easily be bankrupt. Developing games is always a risky business.