What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

[davygee]

Rath said:

Firstly the facts: The Wii is far more powerful than anything last generation, I believe most of the approximations I have seen (you can never quite pull off direct numbers due to the different components) are that it is around 3 times more powerful than the most powerful systems of last gen.

Where are the facts?  I'm pretty sure it was recently compared to an original XBox powerwise!? 

Metroid Prime 3 has shown better graphics than any of last generations games and SMG looks like it is going to better that by a long shot.

I personally disagree.  MP3 looks good but looks so last gen to me...nothing wrong with that though.  SMG looks good and great fun, but graphically isn't anything to shout about.

Onto the opinions. There are going to be no huge advancement in power next generation, no great PS2-PS3 leaps. Why? Because this generation it failed. Badly. Even if by some miracle the PS3 changes its fortunes it has failed HUGELY its launch expectations, all due to the fact that it was so jam packed with technology that nobody could afford it.

I agree that the 8th generation of home consoles or the next next generation will not be a huge advancement of this generation.  It's more like to include better interaction accessories rather than graphical or power advancements.  "Cell" it depends.  If the PS3 ends up being a good seller over its lifetime and ends up a close 2nd or 1st, then Sony could very well stick with Cell as developers would be used to building games on this platform and it wouldn't then be a huge cost and time to develop new engines using new processors. 

The most likely scenario for the end of this generation now is the Wii winning, thus developers working on Nintendo consoles building up fans of series that are Nintendofied will have the advantage next generation, not those who have had experience using the 'Cell', processors of a type which I dont think will be used next gen because of their difficulty of use. 

I agree, that I think the Wii will end up the winner as such around 2012 or so but not by a huge margin. "Cell" processors being hard to code is all relative to the amount of time dedicated to learning how to use it.  It's pretty obvious that loads can be done using the "Cell" and dedicated exclusive games are demonstrating this.  Once Sony releases better support and the better developers sell their engines, we should see easier development of games on the PS3, although it may be another year before this happens.

In anycase I don't think developers will think 'Oh, if we develop on HD systems now we might make a profit in 5 years time due to the next generation of consoles' due to the fact that in 5 years time said developer could easily be bankrupt. Developing games is always a risky business.

Totally correct, that is why some developers are using the Wii and DS to create a good revenue stream for their businesses.  But it certainly won't stop them creating games for the 360 and PS3.  We will though see more multiplatform games especially between the 360 and PS3 and maybe we will see more exclusive 3rd party games on the Wii than any other platform.  But the quality has to certainly get better.

I am unsure how many 1st party inhouse development teams Microsoft have, but maybe this is why Sony are buying up a few smaller development houses to enhance their already good 1st party inhouse teams.  So potentially for the foreseeable future, the PS3 will have to rely on 1st party developers for "exclusive" titles, but they should see a higher number of multiplatform games in the next few years...and with better development tools, 3rd party developers should start showcasing the PS3 rather than multiplatform games being inferior on the PS3 than the 360.