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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

My absolute minimums for all 3:

Wii: 60 million
PS3: 25 million
360: 30 million


Bonus:

DS: 70 million
PSP: 35 million



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Right, I am sticking my neck out here.  I have created a chart which demonstrates what I reckon will be the absolute maximums for all 3 next gen consoles.

As you can see by the chart, I reckon the absolute maximums for each console to be:

Wii - 85m, PS3 - 78m, 360 - 40m

I may hear a few chuckles around, but I don't think all the consoles will reach their absolute maximums.  Although the Wii is the most likely out of the 3. 

The total absolute maximums equate to over 200m worldwide.  Currently the last gen consoles sold around 180m worldwide, and I have taken into account the sales of the DS and PSP taking sales away from the home consoles.

Realistically, I see the Wii being between 50-85m lifetime; the PS3 between 40-78m and the 360 between 25-40m lifetime.  If I was to stick my neck out further, I would say.....70m for Wii, 60m for PS3 and 30m for 360 which would make a worldwide total of 160m in the next gen's lifetime. 



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

i'll have to find my old prediction somewhere in my old posts...nice chart Davygee, i agree for the PS3/360 maximums they are quite close to what i think i had. And though i had a similar number for youe Wii minimum i had a huge maximum.

Dunno if i will need to revise my old prediction i will see.



@davygee

Your expectations for the PS3 are really high!! I was expecting the PS3 to do something like 50 million and 360 close behind it or in front.



here we go....posted 3rd of August, but i made the prediction about March on a different site (but they delete old threads)

any one agree with my numbers [WW, end of gen]
set out like this; absolute minimum <<< my predicted range <<< absolute max [in millions]

Wii - 60 <<< 80-90 <<< 150
PS3- 30 <<< 60-70 <<< 90
360- 25 <<< 30-40 <<< 50

as a breakdown i see US numbers being similar for all three with Wii being slightly ahead.... PAL regions i see a close battle with PS3 and Wii with maybe PS slightly ahead.... And Japan is pretty clearly Wii the winner.

all that is assuming a normal 5-6 year life for 360 [which is why min and max are so close to range]... a PS life of anywhere between 5 and 9 years, and Wii similar life though maybe no more than 8 years.

i think i might lower the predicted range for PS3 and higher the Wii one now though;

Wii - 60<<<100-110<<<150................PS3 - 30<<<50-60<<<90

that makes a total console sales of about 180-210 million. (the maximum numbers wont happen for all three consoles at once, same for minimum)

 

p.s...Davygee, your Sig predictions are all very conservative, DS will sell 60M+ PSP might manage 30M (now that slim is out) Wii minimum is 17M and 360 14M...PS3 i think should make 8M too.      Dunno if oyu made those predictions a while ago and are not allowing yourself to change them but i think all will be too low.



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TWRoO said:

p.s...Davygee, your Sig predictions are all very conservative, DS will sell 60M+ PSP might manage 30M (now that slim is out) Wii minimum is 17M and 360 14M...PS3 i think should make 8M too. Dunno if oyu made those predictions a while ago and are not allowing yourself to change them but i think all will be too low.


Yeah, I made them a good few months ago...can't remember when....maybe May or June.

I think the 360 will push 13-14m now and the Wii will be around 16m still.  The PS3 will remain around 7m IMHO and DS could be closer to 60m.  The PSP, I will stick with 27m, although it may push up a little.



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

W29 said:
@davygee

Your expectations for the PS3 are really high!! I was expecting the PS3 to do something like 50 million and 360 close behind it or in front.

These are the high expectation levels going by my chart.  If you look at the chart, you can see that the Wii has brilliant years in 2007/2008/2009 and starts to tail off in 2010.  In 2011 there isn't much movement as it has reached the end of it's lifespan IMHO, so see the Wii having effectively a 4 year lifepan as the last year see's sales slowly racking up due to a really low price point.

I see 2008 and especially 2009 being special years for the PS3.  I can honestly seem sales going through the roof and be on a par with the Wii during those years.  78m is the maximum, although 60m is much more realistic IMHO.

The 360, unfortunately, I can't see much happening with it.  It's lifespan will expire in 2010 after effectively 4-5 years.  Sales have been very low with the 360 this year and I just see sales being similarly or slightly less.

Also, if you look at the chart...you can see that if both the PS3 and 360 reach their peaks in my opinion, their sales numbers will be equal come the end of 2008 around the 25m mark, although I doubt the PS3 and the 360 will be there around 25m at the end of 2008...more than likely closer to 20m than 25m.

I will create a chart with my predicted numbers (not highest approx.) for each system. 



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

Okay here goes.

Wii is No.1 at the end of 2012 with 70m units sold.  The PS3 has 60m and the XBox 360 has 30m.

Please note that the PS3 is still selling well after this period of time (6 years) and could very well get closer to the Wii's 70m or even surpass it.

I would expect a new Nintendo console to be released at the end of 2010 or early 2011.  And a new MS console could very well appear as early as 2010.

A combined total of 160m home consoles at the end of 2012 with the DS and PSP clocking in at anything from 130-160m combined units after the same time period.  This is why there are less home units compared to this generation.



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

davygee said:

These are the high expectation levels going by my chart.  If you look at the chart, you can see that the Wii has brilliant years in 2007/2008/2009 and starts to tail off in 2010.  In 2011 there isn't much movement as it has reached the end of it's lifespan IMHO, so see the Wii having effectively a 4 year lifepan as the last year see's sales slowly racking up due to a really low price point.

I see 2008 and especially 2009 being special years for the PS3.  I can honestly seem sales going through the roof and be on a par with the Wii during those years.  78m is the maximum, although 60m is much more realistic IMHO.

The 360, unfortunately, I can't see much happening with it.  It's lifespan will expire in 2010 after effectively 4-5 years.  Sales have been very low with the 360 this year and I just see sales being similarly or slightly less.

Also, if you look at the chart...you can see that if both the PS3 and 360 reach their peaks in my opinion, their sales numbers will be equal come the end of 2008 around the 25m mark, although I doubt the PS3 and the 360 will be there around 25m at the end of 2008...more than likely closer to 20m than 25m.

I will create a chart with my predicted numbers (not highest approx.) for each system. 


After 10 months of dominance we are starting to see major publishers (Capcom) bring major franchises (Moster Hunter) to be exclusive to the Wii, what will 3 years of dominance do?

The first 12 to 18 months are the most critical time for a console to establish itself in the eyes of publishers and consumers; by the time 24 months have passed with unimpressive sales Sony will have to find some way to pay off major publishers to release exclusive games for their system and by the 36th month they will have to find some way to pay off major publisher to release games for their system.

Right now Nintendo and Microsoft are lobbying every developer in the world to not only ensure that they receive versions of games but also that the PS3 doesn't get a version of these games. I'm positive that Nintendo's one line sales pitch of "The Wii will have three times the userbase of the PS3, and developement on the Wii costs on third that of development on the PS3." will be far more effective than you'd imagine.



I can't see the ps3 having this massive turn around for no other reason than it is the ps3, so I'd say minimum for this gen which require basically the whole industry decaying, alot
ps3 15 million, if the industry really begins to real retailers will cut the worst perfoming and most expensive and space occupying it first
xbox360 25 million, nothing from Japan, but US is a lock
wii 50 million small, cheap and (almost) everybody wants one, I can't see it doing less than 50 million

what I think the end of this gen will look like
wii 110 million, momentum of a freight train, carries the whole world
xbox 360 60 million genesis like competition in the US and Europe it'll be alright
ps3 30 million, the market is big enough for 3 competitors, but somebody has to have a smaller slice of the pie, and the ps3 has the least to offer
I really can't see the market shrinking unless last gens numbers are inflated by the build quality of the ps2 (considering even a 10% replacement rate would be 10+ million units), which I wouldn't rule out



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NOW A PUNISHER CAB!!!!!!!!!!!!!