| davygee said: These are the high expectation levels going by my chart. If you look at the chart, you can see that the Wii has brilliant years in 2007/2008/2009 and starts to tail off in 2010. In 2011 there isn't much movement as it has reached the end of it's lifespan IMHO, so see the Wii having effectively a 4 year lifepan as the last year see's sales slowly racking up due to a really low price point. I see 2008 and especially 2009 being special years for the PS3. I can honestly seem sales going through the roof and be on a par with the Wii during those years. 78m is the maximum, although 60m is much more realistic IMHO. The 360, unfortunately, I can't see much happening with it. It's lifespan will expire in 2010 after effectively 4-5 years. Sales have been very low with the 360 this year and I just see sales being similarly or slightly less. Also, if you look at the chart...you can see that if both the PS3 and 360 reach their peaks in my opinion, their sales numbers will be equal come the end of 2008 around the 25m mark, although I doubt the PS3 and the 360 will be there around 25m at the end of 2008...more than likely closer to 20m than 25m. I will create a chart with my predicted numbers (not highest approx.) for each system. |
After 10 months of dominance we are starting to see major publishers (Capcom) bring major franchises (Moster Hunter) to be exclusive to the Wii, what will 3 years of dominance do?
The first 12 to 18 months are the most critical time for a console to establish itself in the eyes of publishers and consumers; by the time 24 months have passed with unimpressive sales Sony will have to find some way to pay off major publishers to release exclusive games for their system and by the 36th month they will have to find some way to pay off major publisher to release games for their system.
Right now Nintendo and Microsoft are lobbying every developer in the world to not only ensure that they receive versions of games but also that the PS3 doesn't get a version of these games. I'm positive that Nintendo's one line sales pitch of "The Wii will have three times the userbase of the PS3, and developement on the Wii costs on third that of development on the PS3." will be far more effective than you'd imagine.
