What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

[davygee]

HappySqurriel said:

After 10 months of dominance we are starting to see major publishers (Capcom) bring major franchises (Moster Hunter) to be exclusive to the Wii, what will 3 years of dominance do?

The first 12 to 18 months are the most critical time for a console to establish itself in the eyes of publishers and consumers; by the time 24 months have passed with unimpressive sales Sony will have to find some way to pay off major publishers to release exclusive games for their system and by the 36th month they will have to find some way to pay off major publisher to release games for their system.

Right now Nintendo and Microsoft are lobbying every developer in the world to not only ensure that they receive versions of games but also that the PS3 doesn't get a version of these games. I'm positive that Nintendo's one line sales pitch of "The Wii will have three times the userbase of the PS3, and developement on the Wii costs on third that of development on the PS3." will be far more effective than you'd imagine.

Publishers are jumping on the Wii bandwagon, although we have yet to see a good selection of 3rd party games appear for the Wii though.  This will IMHO take another 6-12 months to happen.  I honestly think that developers are caught in the middle.  They want to take their games to the next level utilising the power of next generation gaming, but they cannot afford to take huge hits on unpopular games on small userbases.  The Wii will allow them to create smaller last generation games and make a good profit on a continually growing userbase, but developers WILL need to make the jump to next gen at some stage as they will be left out again when this generation finishes and they haven't developed tools at a higher level.

One thing you need to think about is this.  Is the Wiiremote enough to keep a generation of gamers away from the PS3 and 360 entirely?  

I honestly think that most of the big publishers/developers are waiting to see what happens with the PS3 before they decide to leave it for dead, this is why 2008 primarily will be a decided year for the PS3.

Also, why are developers making 360 and PS3 versions of games when the 360 has 3 times the user base at the moment?  Because there is a loyalty and a knowledge that the PS3 won't die anytime soon!

You mention unimpressive sales of the PS3...compared to what....the Wii.  The PS3 has virtually sold the same number compared to the 360 in the same timeframe.  Yes, compared to the 12m Wii consoles (7m more), it does look weak.  Also by the time the PS3 has been on the market the 18 months, we could see as many as 12-15m PS3's worldwide, which is not a low number by normal sales.