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Minimums for the generation:

PS3 - 18 million: Sony has proven that it's dedicated to turning the system around, but there's still a big hill to climb. I'm curious to see how the 40GB version affects sales.
Xbox 360 - 28 million: They've got a strong base of games, the system isn't going anywhere, but is the audience expanding?
Wii - 35 million: this is in the scenario that the new gamers lose interest and therefore Nintendo loses a ton of momentum in the next 6-12 months.