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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

Rath said:

Firstly the facts: The Wii is far more powerful than anything last generation, I believe most of the approximations I have seen (you can never quite pull off direct numbers due to the different components) are that it is around 3 times more powerful than the most powerful systems of last gen.

Where are the facts?  I'm pretty sure it was recently compared to an original XBox powerwise!? 

Metroid Prime 3 has shown better graphics than any of last generations games and SMG looks like it is going to better that by a long shot.

I personally disagree.  MP3 looks good but looks so last gen to me...nothing wrong with that though.  SMG looks good and great fun, but graphically isn't anything to shout about.

Onto the opinions. There are going to be no huge advancement in power next generation, no great PS2-PS3 leaps. Why? Because this generation it failed. Badly. Even if by some miracle the PS3 changes its fortunes it has failed HUGELY its launch expectations, all due to the fact that it was so jam packed with technology that nobody could afford it.

I agree that the 8th generation of home consoles or the next next generation will not be a huge advancement of this generation.  It's more like to include better interaction accessories rather than graphical or power advancements.  "Cell" it depends.  If the PS3 ends up being a good seller over its lifetime and ends up a close 2nd or 1st, then Sony could very well stick with Cell as developers would be used to building games on this platform and it wouldn't then be a huge cost and time to develop new engines using new processors. 

The most likely scenario for the end of this generation now is the Wii winning, thus developers working on Nintendo consoles building up fans of series that are Nintendofied will have the advantage next generation, not those who have had experience using the 'Cell', processors of a type which I dont think will be used next gen because of their difficulty of use. 

I agree, that I think the Wii will end up the winner as such around 2012 or so but not by a huge margin. "Cell" processors being hard to code is all relative to the amount of time dedicated to learning how to use it.  It's pretty obvious that loads can be done using the "Cell" and dedicated exclusive games are demonstrating this.  Once Sony releases better support and the better developers sell their engines, we should see easier development of games on the PS3, although it may be another year before this happens.

In anycase I don't think developers will think 'Oh, if we develop on HD systems now we might make a profit in 5 years time due to the next generation of consoles' due to the fact that in 5 years time said developer could easily be bankrupt. Developing games is always a risky business.

Totally correct, that is why some developers are using the Wii and DS to create a good revenue stream for their businesses.  But it certainly won't stop them creating games for the 360 and PS3.  We will though see more multiplatform games especially between the 360 and PS3 and maybe we will see more exclusive 3rd party games on the Wii than any other platform.  But the quality has to certainly get better.

I am unsure how many 1st party inhouse development teams Microsoft have, but maybe this is why Sony are buying up a few smaller development houses to enhance their already good 1st party inhouse teams.  So potentially for the foreseeable future, the PS3 will have to rely on 1st party developers for "exclusive" titles, but they should see a higher number of multiplatform games in the next few years...and with better development tools, 3rd party developers should start showcasing the PS3 rather than multiplatform games being inferior on the PS3 than the 360. 


 



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

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Where are the facts?  I'm pretty sure it was recently compared to an original XBox powerwise!? 

I'm pretty sure I saw a comparison somewhere that said the Wii was significantly more powerful than the Xbox (in particular had much more RAM?). Now I think about it the 3* figure might have been about the GC though, was wrong on this one =(

I personally disagree.  MP3 looks good but looks so last gen to me...nothing wrong with that though.  SMG looks good and great fun, but graphically isn't anything to shout about.

SMG has been lauded by previewers as looking as good as the best games on the PS3/360. I think it is something for the Wii to shout about.

I agree that the 8th generation of home consoles or the next next generation will not be a huge advancement of this generation.  It's more like to include better interaction accessories rather than graphical or power advancements.  "Cell" it depends.  If the PS3 ends up being a good seller over its lifetime and ends up a close 2nd or 1st, then Sony could very well stick with Cell as developers would be used to building games on this platform and it wouldn't then be a huge cost and time to develop new engines using new processors. 

The Cell isnt really suitable for gaming (from what I have heard, Im not actually a dev XD) so I think its likely that next gen they will go back to using more standard processors that make it easier to develop games. I will think that even if Sony does win.

I agree, that I think the Wii will end up the winner as such around 2012 or so but not by a huge margin. "Cell" processors being hard to code is all relative to the amount of time dedicated to learning how to use it.  It's pretty obvious that loads can be done using the "Cell" and dedicated exclusive games are demonstrating this.  Once Sony releases better support and the better developers sell their engines, we should see easier development of games on the PS3, although it may be another year before this happens.

Loads can be done using the cell when you put loads of time in, more than anybody has put in yet. Lair failed to deliver, HS had too much time put into making it look pretty and not enough into making it long.
Really no game has taken advantage of it yet. So far the only 90+ game on the PS3 is Oblivion, which is a 360 port.

Totally correct, that is why some developers are using the Wii and DS to create a good revenue stream for their businesses.  But it certainly won't stop them creating games for the 360 and PS3.  We will though see more multiplatform games especially between the 360 and PS3 and maybe we will see more exclusive 3rd party games on the Wii than any other platform.  But the quality has to certainly get better.

I don't see why it wont stop them creating X360/PS3 games. "Oh, here we have a bigger user base that we can develop AAA games for at a cheaper rate. Why dont we make games for someone else?"

If the Wii keeps on rolling and manages to eclipse the 360+PS3 userbase expect there to be fewer X360/PS3 games. 

I am unsure how many 1st party inhouse development teams Microsoft have, but maybe this is why Sony are buying up a few smaller development houses to enhance their already good 1st party inhouse teams.  So potentially for the foreseeable future, the PS3 will have to rely on 1st party developers for "exclusive" titles, but they should see a higher number of multiplatform games in the next few years...and with better development tools, 3rd party developers should start showcasing the PS3 rather than multiplatform games being inferior on the PS3 than the 360.

Where do you get this idea about better Dev tools from? Is there news about it or something?

Anyway the reason why games are often inferior on the PS3 is because its the smaller userbase = they dont think its worth spending the money on.

Oh and it is possible to survive on first party as a company (see Gamecube) but I don't know if Sony will be able to do that as they require large hardware sales to make a profit. 



Thread revival time part deux!

Xbox 360 is over 25m (some had realistic lowest expectations at 20m)

PS3 has sold over 20 million (some had realistic lowest expectations at 20m)

Wii has sold over 45 million (some had realistic lowest expectations under 30m...)

 

Lets fill in what has happened that was predicted in 2007 earlier in this thread, and what surprised:

- Final Fantasy XIII is now multiplat, so thats a good call by Rocketpig for something said in 2007

- Wii is seeing an infusion of Japanese support now which is good as Nintendo can't do it alone in Japan (DQX, MH3)

- PS3 is probably on target to be profitable and $300 by the end of 2009 which should help it perform like PSP

- Price cuts (below Wii worldwide) have allowed Xbox 360 to gain ground in Europe and Japan

- The recession has hurt debt-ridden, redundancy-laden Sony from reacting quickly to cash rich Nintendo & Microsoft

- DS has relinquished its 2006-2007 death grip of Japan, and is trending to sell 3-4m in Japan in 2009, just as it did in 05'/08'. Nonetheless, sales continue to grow in the Americas and Europe.

- Wii or PSP are most likely to become lead platform in Japan if DS gives up the reigns after 2009 after leading since 2005 in Japan.

- Wii is making a mockery of historical hardware records in the USA, and has yet to see a price drop. 679,200 in January? Over 10 million in 2008 while supply constrained? Yikes. Don't expect Nintendo to hold back for Christmas 2009 either. EAD , Nintendo's most talented, and accomplished internal studiois about due to release a massive holiday game.

- Wii Fit outsold both versions of GTAIV combined in 2008 worldwide.

- In 2009, every platform in Japan is down through six weeks, except for the Xbox 360. Despite the drop overall, Nintendo has a larger overall share in 2009 to date of the Japan market than it did in 2008 because PS2, PS3, and PSP drops are bigger than the small DS drop and large Wii drop. DS will not fall anytime soon either - with Mario & Luigi 3 this week sustaining it through the Golden Week holidays, and then Dragon Quest IX selling 2.3m or whatever first week and pushing DS way up (probably to ~500k in a four-five week period). PS3 numbers will correct with the big late Feb/early March release and FFXIII demo, but without a big push at the end it should be roughly flat in Japan for the year since its down 30% Y.O.Y. to date. Wii sales will depend on if the new IP, and top third party stuff make it out in 2009. Could see Wii peaking in 2010 in Japan though.

 

All that said, I'll update my lowest realistic predictions to:

Wii - 100 million (it could be nearly 85m by the end of 2009, even if its 'only' 65m-70m its still well on its way to 100m)

DS - 145 million (Nearing 100m, should be at 115m minimum by the end of 2009, and likely nearer 130m-135m)

PS3 - 50m (It should be over 30m by the end of the year)

X360 - 50m (It should be over 38m by the end of the year)

PSP - 65m (it should be over 60m by the end of the year, now lower than 56m)



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Using a sort of ballistic theory based on a premise that last month was everybody's best and they are going to go down at about the rate they went up I get XBox360 about 40, PS3 at 30 and Wii about 60 based on current positions and momentum.



Wii - 110 million
360 - 60 million
PS3 - 80 million



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Wow who casted necro!
-edit- Oh theSource did  LOL.
2007 thread. nice one to dig up. interesting

well from this point forward I would say

79 mill. Wii

38 million XBOX 360

36 million PS3



"Let justice be done though the heavens fall." - Jim Garrison

"Ask not your horse, if ye should ride into battle" - myself

Wii - 110 million
360 - 40 million
PS3 - 23 million



Currently playing: Wii Fit / The Sims 3

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My lowest at this point are:

PS3 40

Xbox 360 50

Wii 95



Tease.

Wii - 1 billion(really I say 155 million)
Xbox 360 - 30 million
Playstation 3 - 31 million



I'd have to say
Wii 120 Mil
360 37 Mil
PS3 90 Mil