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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

Let me begin by setting a couple parameters.

1) Don't say 3.42 million for PS3, don't say 8.17 million for Wii, and don't say 10.0 million for 360.

2) Assume at the very least that all three are continually sold through Dec 31, 2008 (no Dreamcast arguments).

3) Be realistic - Sony is going to end up selling 125 million PS2s in 7 years.  Microsoft sold 24 million Xboxs in about 5 years, Nintendo will end up at around 22 million GCs in about 6 years, Dreamcast sold 9 million in about 18 months.  For each console, the last year dragged down year sales averages significantly.

4) Last generation 180 million or so consoles were sold - the market is probably not going to shrink.

That said here is my take on the absolute lowest amount each console could realistically sell this generation:

Xbox 360 - 35 mllion

It is already at 10 million, it won't be killed as early as Xbox, it is selling about as well as Xbox at a higher price despite most Xbox sales coming at a cheaper price.

Nintendo Wii - 50 million

The launch was better worldwide than N64.  Sales in Japan in 6 months (June 10 was the 6 month marker) are already 1/2 of lifetime N64 sales - a console which launched so strongly that 1/2 of it's sales in Japan happened by December 1997.  Even if Wii declined like N64 in Japan, it would likely mean sales of 10 million+ since Wii will be at roughly 5 million by the end of 2007 in Japan.  I expect Wii to do at least N64 numbers in the USA, and I think it will be Nintendo's most successful console in Europe, where sales are comparable to Japan on a weekly basis.

Playstation 3 - 40 million

Sony, almost no matter what, is going to do at least 7 million in Japan, and at least 20 million in Europe and the Americas on strength of brand alone.  However, the huge userbase was based on people with no brand loyalty who simply thought PS2 was the best product (most games).  In the worst case scenario for Sony, it turns out that 2/3 of their userbase is this kind of gamer, and abandons the Playstation brand.  With Sony doing almost Gamecube numbers at $600, I would expect sales to increase fairly dramatically below the $400 barrier, meaning that the best years of the console will come later (2009/2010) as long as 3rd parties continue to support it.  

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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that sounds about right, although i would most likely place the xbox 360 also at 40 million, maybe 45, it has a way better momentum than the normal xbox had and it got a lot of good games coming up, such as GTA, that usually sells consoles

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Interesting post. I would say:

PS3 - 70 million

X360 - 45 million (the biggest winner of this gen)

Wii - 35 million

Good to see that TheSource is another member of this community who understands time factor regards sale of PS3.

I think the low end of the ps3 would be about 30 million. Because a negative momentum of developers abanding it could take place and kill sales till it hits 300$ or so, then it's momentum would be at xbox levels but with better support in japan.
If HD-DVD takes over as leader, then it'd really die fast. Europe&America wouldnt hit past 15M on brand alone at that point. When they stop buying they stop buying Fast over there. I'd give this about a 5% chance of happening.

360 - prob 40 million, on pure momentum at this point.

Wii, yea 50 mill is prob the lowest possible on how much word of mouth is helping it.

Xbox 360 - 20 million

Microsoft has still to show that they can sell their new box to different audiences than the ones that bought the original Xbox. The existing users will be pleased with the upcoming lineup, but if you want to sell to the casual demographics you need a price point at 200$ or lower combined with a varied lineup that has games for nearly every taste. If they don't show some games at E3 this year, that are different to the usual stuff that gets released for the 360, Microsoft won't reach out to the casuals ever with the 360. The 360 is selling at about the same rate as the original Xbox, it will likely end up with LTD of 20-30m.

Playstation 3 - 10 million

Sony is facing the problem that their console is pretty much the same as a 360, just with higher price tag and less games. They are already losing a lot of 3rd party support, multiplatform helps the 360 definitely more than the PS3, because the price difference and size of library remains the same. Japan doesn't seem to want to support any of the HD consoles, the 360 is as good as dead there, the PS3 is mostly sold to people who use it as a Bluray player, weekly hardware vs. software for PS3 shows that, at least for now. The PS3 is selling worse than the Gamecube, has a higher price tag and lacks the proven 1st party games the GC had. The way it looks, Sony has to entirely rely on 1st party games this generation, since most 3rd parties go multiplatform. It's realistic that the PS3 ends up with LTD numbers below the GC, 10-20m.

Wii - 110 milllion

The Wii is the fastest selling system ever, even outpacing the PS2 and DS. 3rd parties are shifting more resources to the Wii, which results in a varied (not only big in numbers) game library and that's the key to become a winning console. New innovative controls and lowest price tag of the three competitors are another big factor for the Wii's success. Numerous reports have shown that the Wii is selling also to people who have never had a console before, so why should it be impossible for the Wii to not reach at least PS2 numbers at the end of it's life? LTD 110-150m.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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110 million is lowest reasonable estimate huh?

currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

PS3 - 30 million
360 - 35 million
Wii - 50 million

These are obviously all minimums.

currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

johnsobas said:
110 million is lowest reasonable estimate huh?

If nobody drops bombs on the manufacturing plants of the Wii, yes.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

As I see it, the Minimum realistic numbers for the PS3 and XBox 360 sitting at 25 Million units each and the Wii I see at about 40 Million.

The fact is that the XBox 360 has not sold dramatically faster than the original XBox and the PS3 is currently selling slower than the Gamecube did so they both could fall into a similar sales range. The Wii (on the other hand) will likely break 20 Million this year and if things go poorly it could start selling at a similar level to the Gamecube/XBox for the rest of its life.

If we can get to about 30 opinions on this, I'll average it out.  I think all of us are a little biased, but an average opinion should be much more reflective of market trends.

We have 6 so far.


People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu