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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

OK, let's all try and be reasonable!

Alphabetically:

PS3: If we're talking minimums, I can see this system theoretically selling an average of 100K/week worldwide for the next 5 years. Obviously higher on holidays, but this is also taking into account the "last year" slump (assuming *roughly* a 6-year life), that would be 26 million, on top of the 3.42 they've already got. Since my estimations went to the conservative, I'll give a bump and say the minimum would be 35 million.

Wii: Wow, this is the hardest to predict a *minimum* for. Geez, we haven't even seen any sales trends that weren't directly affected by supply yet. I don't think it'll sell as well as the DS (a family may buy 2 or 3 handhelds, but probably will only buy one console), but I definitely see it doing better than PSP. So somewhere in-between. Those two have been out for almost a combined 5 years, and combining their current numbers, you get 66 million. I don't see Wii being cut before the 6 year mark, but my little calculation didn't take into account the fact that DS and PSP haven't had their last-year slump yet. let's call this the minimum: 60 million

X360: I've said it somewhere before, but we're going to find out in September if Microsoft is really going to expand their market. Honestly, I think there's still a stark possibility that they may grab *only* original X-box adopters, plus a couple million in change. Again, since we're talking minimums, I'll say 30 million



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To help TheSource getting his 30 predictions (love your writings) I'll add mine and thereby have my first post:

Lowest total market (no killer machine like PS2 this gen): 130 M

Wii: 70 M
(first year incredible: next 2 years should see a lot of great (3rd party) games, after that maybe declining sales)

PS3: 35 M
(bad start, but great games coming, probably longest lifespan + Japanese support)

X360: 25 M (No Japanese support, struggeling over past months, same market as Xbox)



kber81 said:
El Duderino said:

@ kber: if you think Sony can sell 70 Mil if everything and I mean EVERYTHING goes wrong what will they sell if everything goes right ??? 200 Mil, I know it can have a long livetime but 70 Mil is really high for a WORST case scenarion, 50 Mil, ok but even the N64 only soled 60something Mil. and it was far from beeing a worst case scenario, but thats ok, who knows maybe I just don´t give the Playstation brand the respect it deserves


Hmm, I believe this generation will be the longest so far (10 years or more) so my number is pretty high. 6-7 million a year... More than 120 million if everything goes right. I think PS3 will be cheaper than $300 for most of its life.


you may be right with your 10 prediction, but I find it very hard to tell by now, fact is that the loser(s) decide when the Next-Gen comes, if nobody feels like a loser it might take longer than any other generation before it, but the longer it takes the more likely it will be that somebodys sales got down, it´s allways been that way and even though this is a different Gen I don´t see a tie situation holding for very long, the question is will the first loser give up or put a new machine on the market, if and only if the PS3 can still fight a new machine for longer than two years it can have a 10 year livetime, my gut feeling sayes chances are slim to none for this to happen but I´ve been wrong before, or have I ???

@Parokki: sorry  



 

 

 

Wii-45 million
360-30 million
PS3-30 million



These are through 2011 lowest predictions for each console.

Nintendo Wii-

Worst Case Scenario: 55 million

This is if sales of Wii do not continue on a hot streak as casual interest drops in Wii after 2-3 years and price drops of other two make them seem more reasonable to buy.

Expectation: 65 million

High end: 90 million (if PS3 never picks up and 360 remains only a strong seller after price drops and at holidays)

Xbox 360-

Worst Case Scenario: 40 million

This is if Xbox 360 sales do not get a huge rise except for short periods after price cuts and during holidays and remain stagnant the rest of the months of the year.

Expected: 48 million

High End: 55 million (If 360 becomes the hardcore gamers' mainstay for the rest of the generation in US and Europe and PS3 price drops never make enough of a change for it to catch up)

PS3-

Worst Case Scenario: 40 million

This is if the PS3 price cut doesn't come before 07 holidays and FF XIII doesn't sell as well in Japan as the first FF games of each of the previous generations have.

Expected: 55 million.

High End: 65 million.

This is if sales in Japan pick up significantly with the release of FF XIII and other future FF and Gran Turismo games. If it drops to a pricepoint consistently within 100 dollars of 360 in the US and if HD adoption increases in at the rate that it is foreseen now.



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

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Ok. We have 30.  While I calculate the results..entertain yourselfs with this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYQhxtigExc&mode=related&search=



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said:

Ok. We have 30. While I calculate the results..entertain yourselfs with this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYQhxtigExc&mode=related&search=


 I'd rather watch this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WPteMFkI2k

Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

I know this is stupid but I´d like to predict the predictions, lets see

PS3, about 35-40

360, about 25-30

Wii, about 40-50

I hope I´m not way off



 

 

 

El Duderino said:

I know this is stupid but I´d like to predict the predictions, lets see

PS3, about 35-40

360, about 25-30

Wii, about 40-50

I hope I´m not way off


 So racially he's pretty cool?



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

My worst case scenario for each console

X360 - 25 million - performs the same as xbox. Red Ring of death numbers releasead (20%) and M$ can not solve the faulty hardware problem. Wii and PS3 cuts their price at the same time and M$ can not do the same (8 billion in loses). Too many FPSs keeps consumers away (even hardcore).

PS3 - 20 million - M$ buys all the third party support. Wii sells at 6:1 ratio. Sony gives up in 2010 (thanks to shareholders) and starts working on PS4.

Wii - 60 million - third parties refuse to support Nintendo just like in GC era. Wii can not shake off the kiddy and casual only stigma. Games for hardcore are Nintendo only.



Satan said:

"You are for ever angry, all you care about is intelligence, but I repeat again that I would give away all this superstellar life, all the ranks and honours, simply to be transformed into the soul of a merchant's wife weighing eighteen stone and set candles at God's shrine."