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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

TheSource said:

Playstation 3 - 29.3 million

The first post (by me) was 50 million for Wii, 35 million for 360, and 40 million for PS3..interesting.


I greatly enjoy reading all your insightful writings, but honestly think you're over-estimating the PS3. You're saying it'll do twice as well as the Gamecube and Xbox, but so far it's selling about as bad and the future doesn't exactly look bright for it. Surely the worst case scenario should be selling less than the second and third best selling consoles last gen combined?



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Frozen said:
PS3-80mil
Wii-42mil
Xbox-38mil

 For your PS3 numbers were talking worst case scenario not best case haha.



Wii: 60M - I honestly dont think the Wii can sell less than this without a comet hitting Nintendo headquarters or something. They are selling too well in all the markets to go any lower than this in my opinion.

X360: 30M - Problems in Japan, if they screw up in PAL regions as well they could go this low.

PS3: 20M - Loses in Japan and America, Europe becomes a mixed market.



lol anyone who has over 70 million minimum for anything needs to look up the definition of "Minimum." We are talking about WORST CASE here people. There are certainly a LOT of scenarios where every console can die out before 70 million.



For me, the question is really how much will sales increase for PS3 when the price drops?  It is selling between DC and GC levels right now at $600.  Last generation sales (PS2) will end up at 125 million.  Say the average price for PS3 from 2006 to 2012 is $350.  Is that expensive enough to lose 85 million customers even as the market grows at least another 20 million users bigger?  Remember, when sales do get under $400 or so, sales accelerate much more rapidly.  A $50 price drop might be a 2% boost in sales for PS3, $100 off would be maybe a 5% boost, $150 drop would be a 17.5% boost, a $200 drop would be like a 70% boost. 

Basically, if PS3 on average, cost $350 from 2006-2012, I would expect sales to be something like 2.5x the absolute lows of 2007 in the long run (from the lows of 40k/week right now to 100k/week).

I would say losing 85 million customers qualifies as a pretty solid worst case scenario.  I mean that is essentially losing the combined userbase of the SNES & Genesis (as an eccentric comparison).

My main point is, I think after 2 years or so, when PS3 is cheaper, it will be selling faster than either GC or Xbox did because of a stronger presence in Japan & Europe.

 



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TheSource said:

For me, the question is really how much will sales increase for PS3 when the price drops?  It is selling between DC and GC levels right now at $600.  Last generation sales (PS2) will end up at 125 million.  Say the average price for PS3 from 2006 to 2012 is $350.  Is that expensive enough to lose 85 million customers even as the market grows at least another 20 million users bigger?  Remember, when sales do get under $400 or so, sales accelerate much more rapidly.  A $50 price drop might be a 2% boost in sales for PS3, $100 off would be maybe a 5% boost, $150 drop would be a 17.5% boost, a $200 drop would be like a 70% boost. 

Basically, if PS3 on average, cost $350 from 2006-2012, I would expect sales to be something like 2.5x the absolute lows of 2007 in the long run (from the lows of 40k/week right now to 100k/week).

I would say losing 85 million customers qualifies as a pretty solid worst case scenario.  I mean that is essentially losing the combined userbase of the SNES & Genesis (as an eccentric comparison).

My main point is, I think after 2 years or so, when PS3 is cheaper, it will be selling faster than either GC or Xbox did because of a stronger presence in Japan & Europe.

 


I'm pretty doubtful that the price effects will have the desired impact on the PS3's sales ...

Edit: Oops hit enter ...

Assume for a moment that the price reduction schedule for the PS3 looks like the following:

  1. $100 in 2007 ($500)
  2. $100 in 2008 ($400)
  3. $100 in 2009 ($300)
  4. $100 in 2010 ($200)
  5. $50 in 2011 ($150)

Now, as the PS3 is hitting a price where it can sell quite well to the average gamer it has been on the market for approximately 3 years and hasn't sold particularly well; these lower sales have really hurt third party confidence in the platform and exclusive development has dropped off. On top of all of that the Wii has sold like hot-cakes and has built up a massive userbase and third party developers really believe in the platform; because of the nature of the Wii's hardware pretty much every Wii game is exclusive and the low development costs mean that there are several times as many games for the Wii.

Basically, in 2009 and beyond the PS3 will have far fewer games than the Wii , will have (almost) no exclusive games, it will still have a much higher price tag and will be seen as a failure; how much demand do you think a system like this will have?



It depends, the PS3 may already have a bad reputation by the time the price gets low enough. In the past what has determined the future of a console is generally how popular it is on launch - 1 year.



TheSource said:

For me, the question is really how much will sales increase for PS3 when the price drops? It is selling between DC and GC levels right now at $600. Last generation sales (PS2) will end up at 125 million. Say the average price for PS3 from 2006 to 2012 is $350. Is that expensive enough to lose 85 million customers even as the market grows at least another 20 million users bigger? Remember, when sales do get under $400 or so, sales accelerate much more rapidly. A $50 price drop might be a 2% boost in sales for PS3, $100 off would be maybe a 5% boost, $150 drop would be a 17.5% boost, a $200 drop would be like a 70% boost.

Basically, if PS3 on average, cost $350 from 2006-2012, I would expect sales to be something like 2.5x the absolute lows of 2007 in the long run (from the lows of 40k/week right now to 100k/week).

I would say losing 85 million customers qualifies as a pretty solid worst case scenario. I mean that is essentially losing the combined userbase of the SNES & Genesis (as an eccentric comparison).

My main point is, I think after 2 years or so, when PS3 is cheaper, it will be selling faster than either GC or Xbox did because of a stronger presence in Japan & Europe.

 


I would totally agree, Source, except this line of thinking sort of assumes that these consoles exist in a vacuum, where each purchaser is simply waiting for their chosen console to drop to their chosen price.

That has not historically been what happened, though. The consoles that have started at high prices didn't sell well out of the gate... and then continued to sell poorly, even after price drops. How do you explain that? I'm not asking that in a sarcastic way, I'd really be interested in your opinion. Do you simply feel that Sony has enough brand recognition and money to power through what has traditionally been a serious issue for all previous consoles in the PS3's position?  



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naznatips said:
lol anyone who has over 70 million minimum for anything needs to look up the definition of "Minimum." We are talking about WORST CASE here people. There are certainly a LOT of scenarios where every console can die out before 70 million.

Sure, it could happen that 3rd parties would ignore the Wii. But in return that would mean that some of those 3rd parties would likely go bankrupt due to the slow adaption rates of the HD consoles, high development costs and bad game sales. That's why it's unlikely that this will happen. 3rd parties go where the most money can be made.

Other scenarios like "Wii is a fad", "the Wiimote is a gimmick", "people will want HD graphics soon" are also very unlikely to happen. If I would work with such unrealistic scenarios in my predictions I would have to use things like "people won't buy FPS anymore in 2 months", "people refuse to buy consoles that are big" and other crap. I am merely going with sales trends from the past in my predictions and compare them to current sales trends.

Nintendo is in a situation where they can carry the Wii to #1 without any exclusive major 3rd party franchise on board (they are doing it right now anyway). 3rd parties go where the money is, so they won't ignore the Wii for much longer. As I said before in this thread, unless nobody is dropping bombs on the manufacturing plants of the Wii, there is no way that Nintendo will sell less than 110m Wiis, considering it's tracking above PS2 sales so far at this point in its lifetime and is getting more developer support (which serves a wide variety of different games, just like the PS2 library) every month.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Wii: 55 million
PS3: 42.5 million
Xbox 360: 36 million



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