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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

TheSource said:

Let me begin by setting a couple parameters.

1) Don't say 3.42 million for PS3, don't say 8.17 million for Wii, and don't say 10.0 million for 360.

 


 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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oh. haha. i thought i was being clever since nobody had tried that yet.



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Bet with disolitude: Left4Dead will have a higher Metacritic rating than Project Origin, 3 months after the second game's release.  (hasn't been 3 months but it looks like I won :-p )

so, how long is lifetime for ps3, x360 and wii?
they probably will have different lifetime..

i mean, when for example ps2 lifetime is ended?
it`s most like for first xbox`s lifetime ended in the middle of 2006(when it stopped selling)?



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

BenKenobi88 said:
oh. haha. i thought i was being clever since nobody had tried that yet.

haha....nothing gets by TheSource. Busted!!!



Wii Code 8761-5941-4718-0078 

CrazzyMan said:
so, how long is lifetime for ps3, x360 and wii?
they probably will have different lifetime..

i mean, when for example ps2 lifetime is ended?
it`s most like for first xbox`s lifetime ended in the middle of 2006(when it stopped selling)?

That is a (nearly) impossible thing to determine, a Systems Lifetime is mainly dependant on how well it sells so (hypothetically speaking) if the Wii sells 100 Million units and the PS3 only sells 20 Million units the PS3 will have a shorter life inspite of being flashier technology.



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New lowest expectation averages (for the 12 of you who posted after I averaged the first 30 opinions)

Not including Kenobi..we have the following as the absolute mins for each console:

Wii - 55.5 million

PS3 - 30.4 million

Xbox 360 - 33.2 million



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

so, then until wich year people are predicting? till 2010? 2012? 2015? =)

probably the best way, was to make prediction by years, not just by some time.. =)
or it`s just like predicting in 2002, that by the end of 2006 there will be 60 mln ps2, 40 mln GC and 40 mln. xbox? =))



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

mrstickball said:
Worst case predictions:

Xbox 360: 25m - X360 starts tracking more like the Xbox in US/Eur, and ends up slightly ahead in Japan.

PS3: 20m - Tracks similar to what it is now, and no real major defining bump once all games come out. Ends up at GC-esque levels despite FFXIII, MGS, GT, ect. Sony bails in 2009 for a cheaper console and pulls the PS3 plug (skynet fights back), while PSP sales still drive some remote profit.

Wii: 25m - Christmas 2007 ends up being a deathblow to Nintendo, as HDTV penetration is through the roof, MS and Sony drop major price bombs and consumers in the US and Europe start trending more like last gen, leaving the Wii at GC-like levels. Japan remains OK, but still trends better than USA and Europe. Nintendo pulls the plug, and releases Wii 2 in 2009 with a much superior hardware system, and tries to renew a fight vs. MS and Sony.

 Hmm, I have a 57 inch 1080p tv, a Wii, and a 360.  The Wii is my console of choice, so I do not agree with your Wii predictions.  Wanting an HDTV doesn't mean you have to want a HD console, particularly with the selection of games for the HD consoles.  Sports and the same ol shooters?  While I see the appeal for some of them, I enjoy them really no more than the games I have played on the last gen.  I hardly see this scenario creating a collapse of the Wii.  My big screen tv just makes Wii Sports etc. more fun.

My predictions:

Wii:  75 min

360: 28 min

PS3: 18 min 

 Oh, one other comment I wanted to make from other posts discussing the price drop for the PS3.  Why is it rarely noted on this forum that the 360 and possibly the Wii will almost certainly match any price drop, thus making them still the more attractively priced consoles?  If there is this great untapped market for HD consoles, a price drop on a 360 at whatever MS sets it at, still likely makes it a cheaper consol.  I suppose in Japan a PS3 price cut would be especially effective, but in the US I just do not see it being the jumpstart a lot of people on the forum think it will be.



well, ok, my predictions. =)

ps3 - over 100 mln., with amazing games like MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, KZ2, GoW3 and many many others + with games for everyone, LBP, warhawk, pain, flow, afrika, and many other inovations, and with price around 250-300$. People will be sold.

wii - over 100 mln., wii for 99$ will be just impulsive purchase for MANY people, which don`t play console games, but Wii will be fun for Party, that`s why it will sell good.

x360 - 40-60 mln., very depends how will people react on 199$ for core. Then again, if M$ will have more exclusive titles like Mass effect, Too human, Fable 2 and they won`t go to pc, then x360 could be a success. Probably some day they will make stop to fail x360, but it may be too late, that`s why 40 or 60. However, 200$ for premium is a sweet spot, just for those, who want try a little HD. Though, if difference between x360 and ps3 will be only 100$, then most people will buy ps3.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Hey CrazzyMan that looks like the prediction for best scenario.



Satan said:

"You are for ever angry, all you care about is intelligence, but I repeat again that I would give away all this superstellar life, all the ranks and honours, simply to be transformed into the soul of a merchant's wife weighing eighteen stone and set candles at God's shrine."