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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

akuma587 said:
Wii: 55 million
PS3: 42.5 million
Xbox 360: 36 million

 Solid guesses, Akuma. I very much like your posts, by the way, even if I often disagree with their conclusions.



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People continue to serious overestimate the 360. They're ignoring big Microsoft's problems in Europe. I don't see how the 360 sells more than the PS3 when it will lose both Japan and Europe. The only shot it has is if Europe ends close and it sells significantly more in the US, and I don't see either as strong liklihoods. In addition to a Europe and Japan problem Microsoft still has a big time casual gamer problem. My numbers

Wii 40 million

PS3 30 million

360 25 million

These are absolute lows. I think all three will sell better, probably at least 10-15 million units better, but we're going for absolute lows here.


You're seriously underestimating it. The 360 is selling slightly better than the original with a $400 price tag 18 months into its life. The Xbox had already been sliced down to $200 at this point in its life. Add in that the 360 is virtually guaranteed at least one additional year in the market, MS hasn't released Halo and GTA IV hasn't hit shelves, and you expect it to do worse than the original... The numbers just don't add up any way you look at them.


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He300 said:
I belive we all agree to this = WII > X360 > PS3
if we all can agree to that, then why should we argue about the details?, 10 millions this and there, who cares?
the big thing is that nintendo is back and kicking ass and taking names:P and that sony is......out?

No we dont. Just cause the Wii is doing well know does not mean that it will be doing well for the next year and a half, similarly for the PS3 its fortunes could change



add me

Munkeh said:
He300 said:
I belive we all agree to this = WII > X360 > PS3
if we all can agree to that, then why should we argue about the details?, 10 millions this and there, who cares?
the big thing is that nintendo is back and kicking ass and taking names:P and that sony is......out?

No we dont. Just cause the Wii is doing well know does not mean that it will be doing well for the next year and a half, similarly for the PS3 its fortunes could change


Munkeh, pretty sure that's just flame bait. It's a modified version of a statement like: "Of course, clearly we can all agree the Wii sucks, obviously," as if it's common knowledge and there is no argument, when many people would disagree (strongly). 

I totally agree with you, so let's just ignore him :p

 



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Min:
360 - 35 million
PS3 - 25 million
Wii - 50 million



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Xbox360

min: 35 Mio
estimation: 60 Mio
max: 110 Mio

Wii

min: 45 Mio
estimation: 80 Mio
max: 140 Mio

PS3

min: 25 Mio
estimation: 45 Mio
max: 120 Mio

as you can see, the PS3 is very difficult to estimate...



min.
wii 50million
ps3 40million
xbox 25million

the 360 is non existent in japan and ps3 rocks harder than 360 in europe ,the only place where 360 has a solid base is the US



ps3 - 70M, although selling poorly now, when the price drops and the games start coming out sales will really pick up.

360 - 30M, the xbox breand is mre reconizable now than it was for the original xbox so i expect it to sell more but microsoft havent really tried to expand their market so i dont expect it to sell much more than the original.

Wii - 40M, although i expect it to sell well over this there is a small chance it is a fad (dont shoot me Wii fanboys). i got one on release day and have lost interest in the motion controls.



Worst case predictions:

Xbox 360: 25m - X360 starts tracking more like the Xbox in US/Eur, and ends up slightly ahead in Japan.

PS3: 20m - Tracks similar to what it is now, and no real major defining bump once all games come out. Ends up at GC-esque levels despite FFXIII, MGS, GT, ect. Sony bails in 2009 for a cheaper console and pulls the PS3 plug (skynet fights back), while PSP sales still drive some remote profit.

Wii: 25m - Christmas 2007 ends up being a deathblow to Nintendo, as HDTV penetration is through the roof, MS and Sony drop major price bombs and consumers in the US and Europe start trending more like last gen, leaving the Wii at GC-like levels. Japan remains OK, but still trends better than USA and Europe. Nintendo pulls the plug, and releases Wii 2 in 2009 with a much superior hardware system, and tries to renew a fight vs. MS and Sony.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

pkmnkenshin said:
min.
wii 50million
ps3 40million
xbox 25million

the 360 is non existent in japan and ps3 rocks harder than 360 in europe ,the only place where 360 has a solid base is the US

Isn't the 360 outselling the PS3 in Europe as a whole and has a larger installed base there?