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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

Wii - 70 million

Nintendos first party games move at least 15m consoles. Wii brand and other "non-games" can sell easily some 20 millions. Casual games with affordable prices, free online like Fifa, Madden, etc, move 20 more consoles. Japanese devs focus on Wii sell 5 more. And correct implementation of the Wii-remote in FPS, RTS and action games sell 10 more.

360 - 50 million

Halo 3 and GTA IV sell 10m consoles. Big hardcore games like Mass Effect sell 5m consoles. Multiplat games sell way better in it thanks to the lower price point, and the small differences between them. Give it 10m consoles. Jap RPG support remains in Mistwalker hands after all of other devs stop supporting 360, but that enough helps them sell 1.5 mil in Japan and 1.5 mil extra in the rest of the world. Online gaming lovers purchase it to play game likes Gears, GRAW, and others. 5 million consoles. And about 15 million more because of gamers that want HD graphics at a decent price ( 250- ), which 360 will likely hit in 1.5-2.5 years. In this group are the kids and families.

PS3 - 25 million

Will sell horribly during 07, pick up a bit thanks to FFXIII, MGS4 and GT5. Those games together with their first party games will move 10m. If they fail to drop the price to 300 before the end o 2009, or lose most 3rd party exclusives, then
I expect only 5 m more. If they get close to MS in price, and keep some support, then 10m or more.

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ckmlb said:
ItsaMii said:
My worst case scenario for each console

X360 - 25 million - performs the same as xbox. Red Ring of death numbers releasead (20%) and M$ can not solve the faulty hardware problem. Wii and PS3 cuts their price at the same time and M$ can not do the same (8 billion in loses). Too many FPSs keeps consumers away (even hardcore).

I think the red ring numbers are higher than that (much higher) and that's why MS will never say them...

 So do I, but the idea of Legend11 coming out of nowhere and starting a flamewar made me post otherwise.

Satan said:

"You are for ever angry, all you care about is intelligence, but I repeat again that I would give away all this superstellar life, all the ranks and honours, simply to be transformed into the soul of a merchant's wife weighing eighteen stone and set candles at God's shrine."

Well this is doing the minimum meaning that the whole 200 million base doesn't matter cause your picking what the least is going to be. Well my reasoning is that 360 isn't going to succeed in Japan and is dying in Europe. Meaning it only has a possible 80 million market in America as it's main area. And seeing that there is no way it can take 100% of that the low I see 360 saling there won't exceed 20 million. So the apsolute low 360 will get in America I'd say is that 20 million number cause I do see a lot of similarities to the 360 and N64. So for the Americas 18 million. Japan the apsolute low will be 500k. And for Europe the apsolute low looking at it now will be 6.5 million to even the numbers out. So 25 million for 360's low.

For the PS3 it's really really struggling to kick off. Something people don't seem to understand is that price has to change for it to bootstart. And I'm not talking like some $200 price change. I think it needs more around $300 to really even start to change. But Japan is going to have a very GC esque like run. So the lowest I see PS3 getting in Japan is 4 million. As for the rest we are thinking worst possible scenario. That meaning that PS3 stays very very solid, as did GC, and then in the later years obliterate. Thus I would see about 6 million in Europe/others. And in America I see about 10 million. This is asking the apsolute low and the apsolute low would be it failing as it is now. So that would put it at about 20 million.

Finally the Wii. Now the Wii low is going to be much higher because things aren't dying. Already by the end of the year the Wii will at least have about 15 million sold. And even if it does start to fade out nothing that huge fades out in minutes. It'll take another 2 years of declining for Wii to start saling like GC did in it's final years. So going by the worst case scenario if Wii starts to decline it'll mainly happen in Europe/other and American markets. Japan ain't going anywhere. In Japan Wii will at the least sale 15 million. In America by the end of this year it'll at least have 7 million sold. A decline for 2 years would put the lowest possible total somewhere around 18 million. As for Europe it'll probably have about 5 million sold by years in. And a decline would probably have it end at about 15 million as well. Thus because Wii is just so huge right now and the worst possible scenario for it declining would mean that at the least it will have sold 48 million. What some forget to understand is that something as huge as PS2 was doesnt' die in seconds. It takes 2-3 years of slight decline. That's why Wii is almost insured second place just cause of it's start. So here's my numbers.

360- 25 million
PS3- 20 million
Wii- 48 million

That would be the worst possible case scenarios I could think of. All taking into account things such as declines and the worst possible scenarios we can see from here. But it's obviously the low for Wii is going to be much higher because it's growing so much right now that by the end of this year it'll be too hard to just drop like gravity drops us. So there are mine.

I can't see the Wii under 80 million under any scenario. They have the momentum, they have the wand, and there's not much software yet (relatively speaking). As said previously, Nintendo would actually have to blow up for a sales collapse!

PS3/360? I am not so certain of a confident minimum. That darned Wii wand makes a big difference! Even with price drops, the PS3/360 still don't have Wii appeal.

My question is "where will the "traditional, mainstream purchasers go?".

Fall 2007 will go a very long way is describing that.

I belive we all agree to this = WII > X360 > PS3
if we all can agree to that, then why should we argue about the details?, 10 millions this and there, who cares?
the big thing is that nintendo is back and kicking ass and taking names:P and that sony is......out?

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TheSource said:

Average minimum expectation for each console:

Wii - 57.6 million

Xbox 360 - 34.73 million

Playstation 3 - 29.3 million

The first post (by me) was 50 million for Wii, 35 million for 360, and 40 million for PS3..interesting.


People continue to serious overestimate the 360. They're ignoring big Microsoft's problems in Europe. I don't see how the 360 sells more than the PS3 when it will lose both Japan and Europe. The only shot it has is if Europe ends close and it sells significantly more in the US, and I don't see either as strong liklihoods. In addition to a Europe and Japan problem Microsoft still has a big time casual gamer problem. My numbers

Wii 40 million

PS3 30 million

360 25 million

These are absolute lows. I think all three will sell better, probably at least 10-15 million units better, but we're going for absolute lows here.


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TheSource said:

Playstation 3 - 29.3 million

The first post (by me) was 50 million for Wii, 35 million for 360, and 40 million for PS3..interesting.

I greatly enjoy reading all your insightful writings, but honestly think you're over-estimating the PS3. You're saying it'll do twice as well as the Gamecube and Xbox, but so far it's selling about as bad and the future doesn't exactly look bright for it. Surely the worst case scenario should be selling less than the second and third best selling consoles last gen combined?

Frozen said:

 For your PS3 numbers were talking worst case scenario not best case haha.

Wii: 60M - I honestly dont think the Wii can sell less than this without a comet hitting Nintendo headquarters or something. They are selling too well in all the markets to go any lower than this in my opinion.

X360: 30M - Problems in Japan, if they screw up in PAL regions as well they could go this low.

PS3: 20M - Loses in Japan and America, Europe becomes a mixed market.