Well this is doing the minimum meaning that the whole 200 million base doesn't matter cause your picking what the least is going to be. Well my reasoning is that 360 isn't going to succeed in Japan and is dying in Europe. Meaning it only has a possible 80 million market in America as it's main area. And seeing that there is no way it can take 100% of that the low I see 360 saling there won't exceed 20 million. So the apsolute low 360 will get in America I'd say is that 20 million number cause I do see a lot of similarities to the 360 and N64. So for the Americas 18 million. Japan the apsolute low will be 500k. And for Europe the apsolute low looking at it now will be 6.5 million to even the numbers out. So 25 million for 360's low.
For the PS3 it's really really struggling to kick off. Something people don't seem to understand is that price has to change for it to bootstart. And I'm not talking like some $200 price change. I think it needs more around $300 to really even start to change. But Japan is going to have a very GC esque like run. So the lowest I see PS3 getting in Japan is 4 million. As for the rest we are thinking worst possible scenario. That meaning that PS3 stays very very solid, as did GC, and then in the later years obliterate. Thus I would see about 6 million in Europe/others. And in America I see about 10 million. This is asking the apsolute low and the apsolute low would be it failing as it is now. So that would put it at about 20 million.
Finally the Wii. Now the Wii low is going to be much higher because things aren't dying. Already by the end of the year the Wii will at least have about 15 million sold. And even if it does start to fade out nothing that huge fades out in minutes. It'll take another 2 years of declining for Wii to start saling like GC did in it's final years. So going by the worst case scenario if Wii starts to decline it'll mainly happen in Europe/other and American markets. Japan ain't going anywhere. In Japan Wii will at the least sale 15 million. In America by the end of this year it'll at least have 7 million sold. A decline for 2 years would put the lowest possible total somewhere around 18 million. As for Europe it'll probably have about 5 million sold by years in. And a decline would probably have it end at about 15 million as well. Thus because Wii is just so huge right now and the worst possible scenario for it declining would mean that at the least it will have sold 48 million. What some forget to understand is that something as huge as PS2 was doesnt' die in seconds. It takes 2-3 years of slight decline. That's why Wii is almost insured second place just cause of it's start. So here's my numbers.
360- 25 million
PS3- 20 million
Wii- 48 million
That would be the worst possible case scenarios I could think of. All taking into account things such as declines and the worst possible scenarios we can see from here. But it's obviously the low for Wii is going to be much higher because it's growing so much right now that by the end of this year it'll be too hard to just drop like gravity drops us. So there are mine.
