| mrstickball said: Worst case predictions: Xbox 360: 25m - X360 starts tracking more like the Xbox in US/Eur, and ends up slightly ahead in Japan. PS3: 20m - Tracks similar to what it is now, and no real major defining bump once all games come out. Ends up at GC-esque levels despite FFXIII, MGS, GT, ect. Sony bails in 2009 for a cheaper console and pulls the PS3 plug (skynet fights back), while PSP sales still drive some remote profit. Wii: 25m - Christmas 2007 ends up being a deathblow to Nintendo, as HDTV penetration is through the roof, MS and Sony drop major price bombs and consumers in the US and Europe start trending more like last gen, leaving the Wii at GC-like levels. Japan remains OK, but still trends better than USA and Europe. Nintendo pulls the plug, and releases Wii 2 in 2009 with a much superior hardware system, and tries to renew a fight vs. MS and Sony. |
Hmm, I have a 57 inch 1080p tv, a Wii, and a 360. The Wii is my console of choice, so I do not agree with your Wii predictions. Wanting an HDTV doesn't mean you have to want a HD console, particularly with the selection of games for the HD consoles. Sports and the same ol shooters? While I see the appeal for some of them, I enjoy them really no more than the games I have played on the last gen. I hardly see this scenario creating a collapse of the Wii. My big screen tv just makes Wii Sports etc. more fun.
My predictions:
Wii: 75 min
360: 28 min
PS3: 18 min
Oh, one other comment I wanted to make from other posts discussing the price drop for the PS3. Why is it rarely noted on this forum that the 360 and possibly the Wii will almost certainly match any price drop, thus making them still the more attractively priced consoles? If there is this great untapped market for HD consoles, a price drop on a 360 at whatever MS sets it at, still likely makes it a cheaper consol. I suppose in Japan a PS3 price cut would be especially effective, but in the US I just do not see it being the jumpstart a lot of people on the forum think it will be.
