What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

[Bodhesatva]

TheSource said:

For me, the question is really how much will sales increase for PS3 when the price drops? It is selling between DC and GC levels right now at $600. Last generation sales (PS2) will end up at 125 million. Say the average price for PS3 from 2006 to 2012 is $350. Is that expensive enough to lose 85 million customers even as the market grows at least another 20 million users bigger? Remember, when sales do get under $400 or so, sales accelerate much more rapidly. A $50 price drop might be a 2% boost in sales for PS3, $100 off would be maybe a 5% boost, $150 drop would be a 17.5% boost, a $200 drop would be like a 70% boost.

Basically, if PS3 on average, cost $350 from 2006-2012, I would expect sales to be something like 2.5x the absolute lows of 2007 in the long run (from the lows of 40k/week right now to 100k/week).

I would say losing 85 million customers qualifies as a pretty solid worst case scenario. I mean that is essentially losing the combined userbase of the SNES & Genesis (as an eccentric comparison).

My main point is, I think after 2 years or so, when PS3 is cheaper, it will be selling faster than either GC or Xbox did because of a stronger presence in Japan & Europe.

 

I would totally agree, Source, except this line of thinking sort of assumes that these consoles exist in a vacuum, where each purchaser is simply waiting for their chosen console to drop to their chosen price.

That has not historically been what happened, though. The consoles that have started at high prices didn't sell well out of the gate... and then continued to sell poorly, even after price drops. How do you explain that? I'm not asking that in a sarcastic way, I'd really be interested in your opinion. Do you simply feel that Sony has enough brand recognition and money to power through what has traditionally been a serious issue for all previous consoles in the PS3's position?