What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

[rocketpig]

People continue to serious overestimate the 360. They're ignoring big Microsoft's problems in Europe. I don't see how the 360 sells more than the PS3 when it will lose both Japan and Europe. The only shot it has is if Europe ends close and it sells significantly more in the US, and I don't see either as strong liklihoods. In addition to a Europe and Japan problem Microsoft still has a big time casual gamer problem. My numbers

Wii 40 million

PS3 30 million

360 25 million

These are absolute lows. I think all three will sell better, probably at least 10-15 million units better, but we're going for absolute lows here.

You're seriously underestimating it. The 360 is selling slightly better than the original with a $400 price tag 18 months into its life. The Xbox had already been sliced down to $200 at this point in its life. Add in that the 360 is virtually guaranteed at least one additional year in the market, MS hasn't released Halo and GTA IV hasn't hit shelves, and you expect it to do worse than the original... The numbers just don't add up any way you look at them.