My worst case scenario for each console
X360 - 25 million - performs the same as xbox. Red Ring of death numbers releasead (20%) and M$ can not solve the faulty hardware problem. Wii and PS3 cuts their price at the same time and M$ can not do the same (8 billion in loses). Too many FPSs keeps consumers away (even hardcore).
I think the red ring numbers are higher than that (much higher) and that's why MS will never say them...
Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!