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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

Changed my original post to give an actual set of numbers (rather than just picking something out of the thin air), missed the part in the original post where you said you were going to average the numbers.



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Darc Requiem said:
110 million!? If thats your reasonable minimum sales number RolStoppable, I can't imagine what you actually think the we will sell.

Well, in every generation there's one console that gets the majority of exclusive 3rd party support and that same console ends up being the winner, with the exception of the 4th generation, by a wide margin. If you read my entire post you can see which logic I used, LTD sales will be pretty much similar to last generation's consoles and their sales trends over the years.

150m hasn't got to be the upper limit for the Wii, if Nintendo expands to the markets of China and/or India in five years. At that time the technology used in the Wii could be cheap enough to sell it at $100 there, games at $15-30. I don't exactly know how many people would be able or willing to afford a console in these countries, but I know it has to be at such a low price to sell.

Piracy is big in these countries, because 1. they don't get that stuff officially and 2. most people can't afford to pay much for videogames anyway. Consoles and games have to be at lower prices compared to the other markets, that's why I am saying 5 years from now.

A few years ago Nintendo released the iQue in China, an N64 built into the controller with several of their 1st party games included (Super Mario 64, Wave Race 64, Star Fox 64). I am not sure how much it did cost and how well it sold, but I think it was good enough as a test run for future Nintendo projects considering this market. 



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

jlauro said:
Note: These numbers assume hardware revs, such as PS2 to PS2 slim are counted together.  I also expect the market size to grow significantly, to at least 300 Mil.

Seems a little high. If I had to do a mid-level prediction, 200 mil would probably be my bet. Near 100% growth, while pretty cool, seems like too much to hope for.



Minimums:

PS3: 40M; first party software shines through + PS brand and PS2 users upgrading
360: 25M; lack of support for microsoft brand outside USA
Wii: 50M

Probables

PS3: 60M
360: 45M
Wii: 55M; massive decrease in sales after 2 years

Top Ends (in 2010 not 08)

PS3: 100M; after good late 07 and 08, 3rd parties turn back to Sony
360: 55M
Wii: 65M



add me

Wii - 40 M, even if it dies next year its momentum should keep it going a bit longer.

360 - 30 M, just from lasting longer than the first Xbox even if it stays stagnant forever

PS3 - 20 M, pretty much only if everyone gives up on it



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I'll throw my hat in the ring.

Wii: 70m
360: 40m
PS3: 25m

I think people are underestimating the 360.  It may never do well in Japan, but when it gets a price cut, 360s are going to move. 



360: 35 Million
Wii: 60 Million
PS3: 25 Million



DKII said:
Wii - 40 M, even if it dies next year its momentum should keep it going a bit longer.

360 - 30 M, just from lasting longer than the first Xbox even if it stays stagnant forever

PS3 - 20 M, pretty much only if everyone gives up on it

That's aobut what Id say.

Wii 40

360 30

PS3 20

 



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I'm saying these absolute WORST case scenarios

The PS3 refuses to drop it's price early enough and follows the GC track it's whole life : 20 million

The Xbox 360's sales decline continues, and for whatever reason Halo 3 doesn't pull it out of the spin: 30 million

For some reason, hidden to the logical mind, the casual consumer stops purchasing the console with the most games and the Wii's sales sit at what casuals it picks up over the next 2 years plus the few to the end of the generation: 50 million.



We are 20 estimates..

10 more and I'll do an average.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu