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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

PS3 40 million

360 45million

Wii 55million




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I don't like putting exact numbers on that (or ballpark, whatever), I like percent of total consoles sold better.

Wii: 40%
XBox 360: 35%
PS3: 25%

200million seems like a decent total of console:

Wii: 80m

360: 70m

PS3: 50m

I know time plays a factor in this but at the current state and with a few guesses on what I think is going to happen, this is what I see. There are a few things that could really upset this (like the 360 dropping to $200 which I don't think will happen) but if the unexpected things happen, I'll gladly update my numbers.

One of the big reasons why I think the PS3 will sell below the 360 is because I think the PSN is going to become a pay service sometime early to mid 2008 and a lot of people won't pay for both services. I think the 360 will win in that aspect because it simply has the previous install base.

I'm also setting the PS3 the lowest because it will never be below $450 in time to catch up to the other two consoles. By the time it drops below that price, the 360 and Wii will already have had price drops and it just won't catch ground quick enough. As for Blu-Ray, things are looking good for it (as far as next gen media format), but dedicated Blu-Ray players are going to be cheaper than the PS3 and people are going to think about getting a dedicated Blu-Ray player to watch movies before thinking about a PS3.

I'm putting the Wii on top because gamers are embracing it so well and developers see that. Games are going to start getting announced within the coming months and, just like the DS, breakaway hits from new and old IP's will start appearing. Six months ago I would have said that the 360 was going to come out on top but the Wii has really impressed me.

These are lowest predictions.

Wii-35 million

This is assuming the worst case scenario(well for nintendo anyways). Both systems drop their price to a more competive level. Halo 3 stealing press and sales in NA and the PS3 gets to $400 in the US before all of the 3rd party support starts to wind down to GC levels from lack of sales. Regardless of what happens the Wii will ride on hype and the Wii-genre games to at least 35 million

PS3 18 million

It is selling slower than the GC at this point in time at least the trend for the last few months in sales have. The PS3 is almost already experiencing the worst case scenario(I say almost due to the 360 in Japan and great launches). It had some fantastc launches and sales but had its legs chopped off early. If Sony can't get teh price to 400 dollars in 2 years I can easily see this being the first sub 20 million seller. However I find that it will most likely sell around 25 million at this point since it will have a few system sellers coming out. Not too mention I beleive the 360 has already saturated the 400+ system market that is not fanboy driven.

XBOX 360- 30 million

Sales started off slow than picked up now they look like they flattening again. I give this more than the PS3 since I believe that the 360 has already saturated the 400 dollar market for consoles and is in need of a price drop. At this point in time it is still selling better than the original XBOX and will receive a price cut at some point along with Halo 3. I personally feel that MS wants to see a profit and will most likely wait how many systems Halo 3 sells before they get one. Sales may take a hit but MS will see a profit and be in a better position for the next gen.

110 million!? If thats your reasonable minimum sales number RolStoppable, I can't imagine what you actually think the we will sell. As for my reasonable minimum sales. I basically agree with the source, except my PS3 number is 25% lower.

360: 35 million

Wii: 50 million

PS3: 30 million copied me, nice prediction

currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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We have 12 predictions..anymore? Again, if we get to 30, I'll average them out.

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Absolute Minimums

PS3 - 25m. The early years of a console lifetime, especially its second holiday season, are very important. The PS3 will have a good holiday season, but not compared to 360 and Wii. It will continue to struggle until the price reaches about 400 USD. GTA will not move the console significantly, because 600 and even 500 USD is too much for the mainstream and casual audience.

360 - 30m. It's not selling as fast as I'd thought it would have - at Christmas I would have said 40m. No evidence that it's expanding much outside the original Xbox audience. It should outsell the original by a moderate margin, but again, it's looking like a slow growth console.

Wii - 45m. Fast-seller with a head of steam - it won't slow down significantly until the summer of 2008, and maybe not even then. Graphics will look very outdated by then, but mainstream gamers don't value graphics highly, and they're an afterthought for casuals. Appeals best to all three segments of the audience (casuals, which it has a near deathgrip on; popular with mainstreamers; a second-choice at best for hardcore gamers).

That makes for 100m sold, which is a little low-ball. More likely:

PS3: 35m
360: 45m
Wii: 70m

 For 150 m sold. Still less than last gen, but this is a minimum prediction, after all.

PS3: 20 Mil (I expect more like 70 mil with a long product life, but for lowest resonable... Sony could be forced to axe it as Sega did with the dreamcast)
Xbox 360: 25 Mil (I expect closer to 35 mil, but...)
Wii: 90 Mil (I expect closer to 150 Mil)

The wii will get down to $99 near it's end. In terms of selection, it will also be the best choice if you only have one system, as the PS2 was for last gen. It will also be the best choice as a compliment another system. IE: Wii+PS3 or Wii+360. PS3+360 doesn't make much sense unless get wii+ps3+360...

Note: These numbers assume hardware revs, such as PS2 to PS2 slim are counted together.  I also expect the market size to grow significantly, to at least 300 Mil.

Changed my original post to give an actual set of numbers (rather than just picking something out of the thin air), missed the part in the original post where you said you were going to average the numbers.

jlauro said:
Note: These numbers assume hardware revs, such as PS2 to PS2 slim are counted together.  I also expect the market size to grow significantly, to at least 300 Mil.

Seems a little high. If I had to do a mid-level prediction, 200 mil would probably be my bet. Near 100% growth, while pretty cool, seems like too much to hope for.