Thread revival time part deux!
Xbox 360 is over 25m (some had realistic lowest expectations at 20m)
PS3 has sold over 20 million (some had realistic lowest expectations at 20m)
Wii has sold over 45 million (some had realistic lowest expectations under 30m...)
Lets fill in what has happened that was predicted in 2007 earlier in this thread, and what surprised:
- Final Fantasy XIII is now multiplat, so thats a good call by Rocketpig for something said in 2007
- Wii is seeing an infusion of Japanese support now which is good as Nintendo can't do it alone in Japan (DQX, MH3)
- PS3 is probably on target to be profitable and $300 by the end of 2009 which should help it perform like PSP
- Price cuts (below Wii worldwide) have allowed Xbox 360 to gain ground in Europe and Japan
- The recession has hurt debt-ridden, redundancy-laden Sony from reacting quickly to cash rich Nintendo & Microsoft
- DS has relinquished its 2006-2007 death grip of Japan, and is trending to sell 3-4m in Japan in 2009, just as it did in 05'/08'. Nonetheless, sales continue to grow in the Americas and Europe.
- Wii or PSP are most likely to become lead platform in Japan if DS gives up the reigns after 2009 after leading since 2005 in Japan.
- Wii is making a mockery of historical hardware records in the USA, and has yet to see a price drop. 679,200 in January? Over 10 million in 2008 while supply constrained? Yikes. Don't expect Nintendo to hold back for Christmas 2009 either. EAD , Nintendo's most talented, and accomplished internal studiois about due to release a massive holiday game.
- Wii Fit outsold both versions of GTAIV combined in 2008 worldwide.
- In 2009, every platform in Japan is down through six weeks, except for the Xbox 360. Despite the drop overall, Nintendo has a larger overall share in 2009 to date of the Japan market than it did in 2008 because PS2, PS3, and PSP drops are bigger than the small DS drop and large Wii drop. DS will not fall anytime soon either - with Mario & Luigi 3 this week sustaining it through the Golden Week holidays, and then Dragon Quest IX selling 2.3m or whatever first week and pushing DS way up (probably to ~500k in a four-five week period). PS3 numbers will correct with the big late Feb/early March release and FFXIII demo, but without a big push at the end it should be roughly flat in Japan for the year since its down 30% Y.O.Y. to date. Wii sales will depend on if the new IP, and top third party stuff make it out in 2009. Could see Wii peaking in 2010 in Japan though.
All that said, I'll update my lowest realistic predictions to:
Wii - 100 million (it could be nearly 85m by the end of 2009, even if its 'only' 65m-70m its still well on its way to 100m)
DS - 145 million (Nearing 100m, should be at 115m minimum by the end of 2009, and likely nearer 130m-135m)
PS3 - 50m (It should be over 30m by the end of the year)
X360 - 50m (It should be over 38m by the end of the year)
PSP - 65m (it should be over 60m by the end of the year, now lower than 56m)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
