Indeed 2-3M is what I predict to Saros. That's kinda in line with Metroid.

Steam Deck!

Returnal sold sub 3 million units. There is no way Saros will sell 5 million, let alone 10

Roguelikes that sold better are indies with very low price entry. It's simply not an audience that look for high production value, they will rather play something cheaper 

"Earth-shattering success" 👁️ 👄 👁️  like its unborn brother, the mighty GabeCube, will be.

https://gamerant.com/steam-machine-ps5-exclusives-multiplayer-competition/

Tough to make a call but I'm gonna say PS5 wins this year (for the last time).

PS5 has GTA6 coming out, and I don't think that's gonna move like millions of units or anything as most people who are waiting for the game already have the system, but it'll probably be a big 2-4 weeks of sales for the PS5 when it comes out.

Switch 2 is already and will likely continue struggle in Europe, be okay/good but not great in the US, and dominate Japan. PS5 is gonna be dominant in Europe, good but probably not quite great in the US, and barely move anything in Japan. I'd say PS5 wins by a narrow margin over Switch 2 this year.

If Nintendo manages to actually pull out a list of must have games this year that could push it slightly ahead, but so far the library is very bleak with nothing announced yet. I mean who knows maybe so far the library has been empty because they just got behind on several big hitters that will be hitting this year, but so far this gen Nintendo has shown nothing in terms of their normal competence outside of just having great hype-fueled launch sales and one good DK game. Presumably they'll have 3D Mario finally this year but the question is will there be anything else that convinces people to pony up the money on a system that is so far lacking reasons to buy it.

So how many units of PS5 do you think will be sold this year? And how many units of Switch 2 do you expect to be sold? It's hard to start a discussion when I don't know your prediction in numbers.

Also, are you sure that Rockstar will not delay GTA 6? If the delay happens will your prediction remains the same?

I'm asking, because I don't see a high probability of PS5 outselling Switch 2 this year. While Switch 2 sales in Europe might be lower, it might sell better than PS5 in Americas and Asia by noticable margins. A lot of weight of your prediction depends on GTA 6 launching in 2026, but this type of game will shift the most units on PC in my opinion. Many people like me are waiting for a definitive PC release instead. So, in case if the game launches in November it could increase the PS5 sales from let's say 14 millions of potential sales to 17 millions.

If Nintendo manages to release many well reviewed exclusives and get a great third party support this year they could sell about 20 millions units in 2026. So I think Switch 2 selling more has a higher chance of occuring. That's how I see it based on the sales from previous year and number of Switch 1 users, plus some high quality exclusives like Mario Maker 3, Splatoon, Luigi Mansion, Zelda Remake or even new Pokemon game. I am not seeing 3D Mario launching this year though.

The question was not directed at me, but I can give an answer: yes, games can sell consoles, but there are conditions here. First it needs to draw in gamers not previously on the platform, so other big releases beforehand in the same genre, similar style or even games in the same franchise will have drawn people already into that platform. Secondly it can be seen thoughout gaming history, that late releases even of big games do less and less to system sales.

So what I am saying is: Breath of the Wild sold a lot of Switch, Tears of the Kingdom not so much.

Order of magnitude? You assume any game can increase sales of the system by the factor of ten? PS5 sold 17M last year, you expect with GTA6 it to sell 170M? Please tell me you simply don't understand the term order of magnitude, otherwise this is some crazy shit.

And yeah, as I said, GTA5 is already on PS5 and is a massive seller, and PS5 is late in it's life cycle. So I expect GTA6 to do Tears of the Kingdom effect on sytem sales, not Breath of the Wild effect.

All of your points have been adressed several times already:

1. GTA is many times bigger today than it was when GTA5 released.

2. GTA5 was released only two months before PS4/Xbox One launched. For context: Gran Turismo 6 releasing late on PS3 destroyed its sales potential.

3. GTA5 came out in X360's 8th year and PS3's 7th year. GTA6 is coming out in its consoles 6th year.

4. GTA5's system selling effect was spread out between two major consoles: PS3 and X360.

5. GTA5 was the second new GTA game on PS360. GTA6 will be PS5's first.

6. A tiny little fraction of GTA fans bought the PS5 port of GTA5. It goes without saying a late port doesn't have the significance of a brand new game.

7. I think by "an order of magnitude" he may be referring to its system selling effect compared to a typical big game (Spider-Man, TotK, potentially Wolverine). He expects PS5 to sell 120-130 million lifetime.

Sure?

"Within 24 hours of its release, Grand Theft Auto V generated more than US$815 million in worldwide revenue, equating to approximately 11.21 million copies sold for Take-Two Interactive."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V#Sales

While revenue of GTA6 might match that because of increased game prices, selling more than 10M in 24 is even today no easy feat. GTA5 is at 225M shipped copies, so it sold 5% in the first 24 hours. Claiming it wasn't as popular at release as it is today is crazy seeing this ratio.

People moved on to PS4?

"On 7 October 2013, the game became the best-selling digital release on PlayStation Store for PlayStation 3, breaking the previous record set by The Last of Us"

Seems like it sold quite well on the old consoles.

Here is some serious history rewriting underway. While there is no question that GTA6 will be a big release, these magic things expected from the game are far from realistic.

GTA5 and TLoU would have sold more on PS360 if they came out earlier and weren't soon ported to PS4 (where TLoU ended up selling most units and more than doubling PS3 version's sales despite being a year late~ port. GTA5's platform split is unknown). I think it's crazy to read the points that I made and act like they amount to nothing. 

GTA6's early sales should comfortably beat GTA5's on PS360, and most of it will come from PS5 as opposed to GTA5 being near evenly split between two consoles. 

Can you be more specific about what you mean by "magic things"? Is PS5 selling 120-130 million lifetime a magical number?