| Mnementh said: OK, this seems not to hard to answer: in 2025 Switch 2 sold about 15 million, despite don't even selling for the full year, while PS5 sold 17 million. PS5 declined about 2 million compared to the previous year, so if we assume this rate of ongoing decline the PS5 already falls on to S2 level, and S2 increasing sales is pretty much a given. That said it might not be a big difference, S2 seems to have seen much frontloaded sales, so it might be 17M for S2 vs. 15M for PS5.
About GTA6 - GTA5 didn't prevent the ongoing sales decline of PS3 and it was a massive seller. Don't see why it should be much different this time.
The question was not directed at me, but I can give an answer: yes, games can sell consoles, but there are conditions here. First it needs to draw in gamers not previously on the platform, so other big releases beforehand in the same genre, similar style or even games in the same franchise will have drawn people already into that platform. Secondly it can be seen thoughout gaming history, that late releases even of big games do less and less to system sales. So what I am saying is: Breath of the Wild sold a lot of Switch, Tears of the Kingdom not so much.
Order of magnitude? You assume any game can increase sales of the system by the factor of ten? PS5 sold 17M last year, you expect with GTA6 it to sell 170M? Please tell me you simply don't understand the term order of magnitude, otherwise this is some crazy shit. And yeah, as I said, GTA5 is already on PS5 and is a massive seller, and PS5 is late in it's life cycle. So I expect GTA6 to do Tears of the Kingdom effect on sytem sales, not Breath of the Wild effect. |
All of your points have been adressed several times already:
1. GTA is many times bigger today than it was when GTA5 released.
2. GTA5 was released only two months before PS4/Xbox One launched. For context: Gran Turismo 6 releasing late on PS3 destroyed its sales potential.
3. GTA5 came out in X360's 8th year and PS3's 7th year. GTA6 is coming out in its consoles 6th year.
4. GTA5's system selling effect was spread out between two major consoles: PS3 and X360.
5. GTA5 was the second new GTA game on PS360. GTA6 will be PS5's first.
6. A tiny little fraction of GTA fans bought the PS5 port of GTA5. It goes without saying a late port doesn't have the significance of a brand new game.
7. I think by "an order of magnitude" he may be referring to its system selling effect compared to a typical big game (Spider-Man, TotK, potentially Wolverine). He expects PS5 to sell 120-130 million lifetime.
Last edited by Kyuu - 1 day ago
