Which system will sell more in 2026: Switch 2 or PS5?

[Mnementh]

OK, this seems not to hard to answer: in 2025 Switch 2 sold about 15 million, despite don't even selling for the full year, while PS5 sold 17 million. PS5 declined about 2 million compared to the previous year, so if we assume this rate of ongoing decline the PS5 already falls on to S2 level, and S2 increasing sales is pretty much a given. That said it might not be a big difference, S2 seems to have seen much frontloaded sales, so it might be 17M for S2 vs. 15M for PS5.

About GTA6 - GTA5 didn't prevent the ongoing sales decline of PS3 and it was a massive seller. Don't see why it should be much different this time.

Manlytears said:

With all due respect, do you believe in the premise that "game X will move consoles"?

The question was not directed at me, but I can give an answer: yes, games can sell consoles, but there are conditions here. First it needs to draw in gamers not previously on the platform, so other big releases beforehand in the same genre, similar style or even games in the same franchise will have drawn people already into that platform. Secondly it can be seen thoughout gaming history, that late releases even of big games do less and less to system sales.

So what I am saying is: Breath of the Wild sold a lot of Switch, Tears of the Kingdom not so much.

Manlytears said:

If you believe in that premise, I'll tell you that GTA 6 as an exclusive (practically) should be multiplied by an order of magnitude!

Order of magnitude? You assume any game can increase sales of the system by the factor of ten? PS5 sold 17M last year, you expect with GTA6 it to sell 170M? Please tell me you simply don't understand the term order of magnitude, otherwise this is some crazy shit.

And yeah, as I said, GTA5 is already on PS5 and is a massive seller, and PS5 is late in it's life cycle. So I expect GTA6 to do Tears of the Kingdom effect on sytem sales, not Breath of the Wild effect.