| Slownenberg said: Tough to make a call but I'm gonna say PS5 wins this year (for the last time). PS5 has GTA6 coming out, and I don't think that's gonna move like millions of units or anything as most people who are waiting for the game already have the system, but it'll probably be a big 2-4 weeks of sales for the PS5 when it comes out. Switch 2 is already and will likely continue struggle in Europe, be okay/good but not great in the US, and dominate Japan. PS5 is gonna be dominant in Europe, good but probably not quite great in the US, and barely move anything in Japan. I'd say PS5 wins by a narrow margin over Switch 2 this year. If Nintendo manages to actually pull out a list of must have games this year that could push it slightly ahead, but so far the library is very bleak with nothing announced yet. I mean who knows maybe so far the library has been empty because they just got behind on several big hitters that will be hitting this year, but so far this gen Nintendo has shown nothing in terms of their normal competence outside of just having great hype-fueled launch sales and one good DK game. Presumably they'll have 3D Mario finally this year but the question is will there be anything else that convinces people to pony up the money on a system that is so far lacking reasons to buy it. |
So how many units of PS5 do you think will be sold this year? And how many units of Switch 2 do you expect to be sold? It's hard to start a discussion when I don't know your prediction in numbers.
Also, are you sure that Rockstar will not delay GTA 6? If the delay happens will your prediction remains the same?
I'm asking, because I don't see a high probability of PS5 outselling Switch 2 this year. While Switch 2 sales in Europe might be lower, it might sell better than PS5 in Americas and Asia by noticable margins. A lot of weight of your prediction depends on GTA 6 launching in 2026, but this type of game will shift the most units on PC in my opinion. Many people like me are waiting for a definitive PC release instead. So, in case if the game launches in November it could increase the PS5 sales from let's say 14 millions of potential sales to 17 millions.
If Nintendo manages to release many well reviewed exclusives and get a great third party support this year they could sell about 20 millions units in 2026. So I think Switch 2 selling more has a higher chance of occuring. That's how I see it based on the sales from previous year and number of Switch 1 users, plus some high quality exclusives like Mario Maker 3, Splatoon, Luigi Mansion, Zelda Remake or even new Pokemon game. I am not seeing 3D Mario launching this year though.
