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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 3, 2025 (Jan 13 - Jan 19)

Olivernintentoal said:

You are correct! Tbone predicted 40 million for Japan (slightly lower tracked by Famitsu). 2025 is shaping up to beat his prediction and make up some ground, since it's 0.75 million behind through 2024.

YearTbone's predictionsYTDActualsYTDDifference
2017-202017.34mil17.34mil17.34miln/a
20216.20mil23.54mil5.58mil22.92mil-0.62mil
20225.20mil28.74mil4.81mil27.72mil-1.02mil
20233.70mil32.44mil4.06mil31.79mil-0.65mil
20243.20mil35.64mil~3.10mil34.89mil-0.75mil
20251.20mil36.84
2026+500k+37.34

I am a little bit confused here. Is this 40M prediction for shipped ? Why the total numbers is getting up to 37.34 and not 40M ? And are those 2.7M expected after 2026 ? Can someone explain ?



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XtremeBG said:
Olivernintentoal said:

You are correct! Tbone predicted 40 million for Japan (slightly lower tracked by Famitsu). 2025 is shaping up to beat his prediction and make up some ground, since it's 0.75 million behind through 2024.

YearTbone's predictionsYTDActualsYTDDifference
2017-202017.34mil17.34mil17.34miln/a
20216.20mil23.54mil5.58mil22.92mil-0.62mil
20225.20mil28.74mil4.81mil27.72mil-1.02mil
20233.70mil32.44mil4.06mil31.79mil-0.65mil
20243.20mil35.64mil~3.10mil34.89mil-0.75mil
20251.20mil36.84
2026+500k+37.34

I am a little bit confused here. Is this 40M prediction for shipped ? Why the total numbers is getting up to 37.34 and not 40M ? And are those 2.7M expected after 2026 ? Can someone explain ?

Tbone originally said, "My prediction for years to come (sell thru is famitsu) but the added number is for NSW sell Thru from untracked retailers such as Mynintendostore.."

Though his prediction was technically for 40 million shipped, he also acknowledged that there are some retailers not tracked by Famitsu, so sell-through would be higher than tracked. He predicted at least 38 million sell-through tracked by Famitsu.



Playing Xenoblade 2 before I buy Xenoblade 3 (otherwise I couldn't wait to play 3).

Can they announce a new Fire Emblem? A remake of Genealogy or Tellius would suffice !

Switch 2 will be doom for Sony in Japan.



I wonder if this'll be the last ever week the Switch is up YoY. It's certainly been doing insanely well lately. Also seems around 10k will be what the PS5 sells for at least a large amount of the year so hardware sales for it could genuinely become semi-dead in Japan next year since I doubt that year will have as much system selling software as this one will have for it.



PS5 numbers not a surprise. They price increase killed it, and an even more expensive Pro isn't gonna be popular either. 10k is the base now.

Switch doing well. In 6 months it'll probably be down to that 10k PS5 level but it looks like it'll have a good last hurrah early this year before it is replaced.



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Norion said:

I wonder if this'll be the last ever week the Switch is up YoY. It's certainly been doing insanely well lately. Also seems around 10k will be what the PS5 sells for at least a large amount of the year so hardware sales for it could genuinely become semi-dead in Japan next year since I doubt that year will have as much system selling software as this one will have for it.

Switch could still be up YoY on Pokemon or Metriod release, so I think this is probably too soon.



Switch is up YoY for 8 out of the past 9 weeks.  This was also a big week on the software charts with five new SKUs.  It will be interesting to see which titles have staying power (if any) over the next several weeks.



Slownenberg said:

PS5 numbers not a surprise. They price increase killed it, and an even more expensive Pro isn't gonna be popular either. 10k is the base now.

Switch doing well. In 6 months it'll probably be down to that 10k PS5 level but it looks like it'll have a good last hurrah early this year before it is replaced.

The price increase has nothing to do with that. For some reason, gen 9 will be shorter than usual. PS5 being down YoY in its 4th year is quite telling. If we add in the fact Sony themselfes said that the PS5 is halfway through its life we know whats up. I don't think GTAVI will cause a massive uprise in sales (at least not in a way some people wish) for a turn around. GTAV was one of the  biggest SW openings of all time, even today, yet the Xbox 360 and the PS3 where down >30% YoY. Why should it be different this time? Many people who want GTAVI already own a PS5 or Xbox Series.



King Switch slaying every week!



Phenomajp13 said:
Norion said:

I wonder if this'll be the last ever week the Switch is up YoY. It's certainly been doing insanely well lately. Also seems around 10k will be what the PS5 sells for at least a large amount of the year so hardware sales for it could genuinely become semi-dead in Japan next year since I doubt that year will have as much system selling software as this one will have for it.

Switch could still be up YoY on Pokemon or Metriod release, so I think this is probably too soon.

Metroid is too niche in Japan to do that but it could potentially happen with Legends Z-A depending on when in the year it releases sure. If it's the first half of the year then it probably has a decent shot at doing that.