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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the Switch outsell the PS2 and pass 160M ?

 

When will the Switch pass 160M in units sold?

By summer 2025 1 1.19%
 
By end of 2025 12 14.29%
 
By summer 2026 21 25.00%
 
By end of 2026 19 22.62%
 
2027 / 2028 14 16.67%
 
Never 17 20.24%
 
Total:84
Pinkie_pie said:
Phenomajp13 said:

Says the warrior shilling for Sony, but no I am already on record saying that figure isn't high enough. Switch ain't selling under 162. It'll hit over 153 in March 2025 and even with a 50% decline, it'll hit 159 million by March 2026. Now let's get back on topic and talk about when will Switch hit 160. In going with June 2026. What about you?

Shilling for Sony? First it was Jim ryan then Sony just recently announced it. Hitting 160m is cool I guess. Has Sony ever lied about total sales figures? I'm just questioning why would they lie about it especially the PS2. I don't think 1 or 2m would make any difference. If Nintendo wants the Switch to surpass 160m they could easily do it by keep making it for the next 3 or 4 years but I don't think they care as much as you do

Yes shilling for Sony because you blatantly left out Sony also said 155 million in 2018. I wonder why you would just leave that out your post. So I'll help you out. In 2018, Sony said the PS2 has sold 155.1 million as if March 2012 (apparently they underreported the PS2 because they obviously meant 160?). Now all of a sudden they (Sony and Jim Ryan) are so interested in telling the world it was 160 all along. So maybe I need to help you understand it is a financial crime for Sony or anyone to lie on those financial reports and this is because a shareholders can't reasonably make a decision to invest in your publicly traded company if you are lying on the reports to begin with. I say that because its not illegal for a prior employee (Jim Ryan) to lie in a podcast so this is why people said maybe he isn't lying and just rounded up because Sony themselves never reported this. Sony now is posting it on their site, which im honestly not sure if that would be a crime but i imagine yes so Sony is likely not lying however Sony not adjusting the date is very questionable. 

You have yet again tried to tell me my feelings, care as much as I do? Nintendo doesn't care but Sony certainly does because they cared to make the change.

Edit: You didn't really answer the question, when will it surpass 160? Or are you still holding hope?

Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 30 November 2024

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Let me give my sales estimation by quarter:

End of 2024: 151 Million

March 31st 2025: 152.8 Million

June 30th 2025: 154.2 Million

September 30th 2025: 155.4 Million

December 31st 2025: 157.3 Million

March 31st 2026: 158 Million

June 30th 2026: 158.7 Million

September 30th 2026: 159.3 Million

December 31st 2026: 160.5 Million

So I'm thinking it will do it by the end of 2026, it should slowly cross to that total. I think if Nintendo tried even an ounce more it'll do it much faster and would guarantee it outsells the PS2, but i have a feeling Switch sales will drop off the cliff once Switch 2 launches since Switch 2 will be backwards compatible with all Switch 1 games and will likely be only 100-50$ more expensive than the OG Switch/Oled since I don't expect the OG Switch to get any price cuts, making most people rather spend only 50$ more for the Switch 2 that could play new games and all Switch 1 games as well.

I see the Switch's sales trajectory to fall closer in line to the DS's post 3DS price cut as opposed to the 3DS & GBA's post life sales. The lack of price difference between the DS & 3DS post price cut & 3DS's backwards compatibility killed the DS"s legs significantly, I expect a similar thing with the Switch but I still think it'll be enough to outsell the PS2.

Last edited by javi741 - on 30 November 2024

Phenomajp13 said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Shilling for Sony? First it was Jim ryan then Sony just recently announced it. Hitting 160m is cool I guess. Has Sony ever lied about total sales figures? I'm just questioning why would they lie about it especially the PS2. I don't think 1 or 2m would make any difference. If Nintendo wants the Switch to surpass 160m they could easily do it by keep making it for the next 3 or 4 years but I don't think they care as much as you do

Yes shilling for Sony because you blatantly left out Sony also said 155 million in 2018. I wonder why you would just leave that out your post. So I'll help you out. In 2018, Sony said the PS2 has sold 155.1 million as if March 2012 (apparently they underreported the PS2 because they obviously meant 160?). Now all of a sudden they (Sony and Jim Ryan) are so interested in telling the world it was 160 all along. So maybe I need to help you understand it is a financial crime for Sony or anyone to lie on those financial reports and this is because a shareholders can't reasonably make a decision to invest in your publicly traded company if you are lying on the reports to begin with. I say that because its not illegal for a prior employee (Jim Ryan) to lie in a podcast so this is why people said maybe he isn't lying and just rounded up because Sony themselves never reported this. Sony now is posting it on their site, which im honestly not sure if that would be a crime but i imagine yes so Sony is likely not lying however Sony not adjusting the date is very questionable. 

You have yet again tried to tell me my feelings, care as much as I do? Nintendo doesn't care but Sony certainly does because they cared to make the change.

Edit: You didn't really answer the question, when will it surpass 160? Or are you still holding hope?

I didn't know Sony said 155m in 2018. If they really did say it was at 155m in 2018 then why  did we have outside parties saying it was at 160m or near it for years. Even vgchartz had it at 159m. Btw I only read these numbers from posters on vgchartz. I dont remember I ever saw it as low as 155m. Surely there must be reasons for them to think it could be above 160m. Maybe Sony they didn't bother adjusting the number since 2012 or 2013 when it was at 155m. As to your question will Switch surpasses the PS2 and when. I have no idea and I don't care. Seriously I don't know when Nintendo releases their next console and when Nintendo phasing out the switch. Currently it's at 140m so I think the minimum it will do is 150m and could go as high as 170m if Nintendo don't phase out the switch until 2030? 



Pinkie_pie said:

I didn't know Sony said 155m in 2018. If they really did say it was at 155m in 2018 then why did we have outside parties saying it was at 160m or near it for years. Even vgchartz had it at 159m. Btw I only read these numbers from posters on vgchartz. I dont remember I ever saw it as low as 155m. Surely there must be reasons for them to think it could be above 160m. Maybe Sony they didn't bother adjusting the number since 2012 or 2013 when it was at 155m. As to your question will Switch surpasses the PS2 and when. I have no idea and I don't care. Seriously I don't know when Nintendo releases their next console and when Nintendo phasing out the switch. Currently it's at 140m so I think the minimum it will do is 150m and could go as high as 170m if Nintendo don't phase out the switch until 2030?

Sony said over 155M back in March 2012. This was the last update they did to the PS2 figures. The last official report. Of course since then It sold more. So the final number is more than 155M for sure. In 2018, as far as I remember they haven't updated the number, but just said 500M for all the PS consoles, and they just copy and paste the numbers from the last reports for most of their consoles (excluding the Vita). I am not sure if then was the time when we got the final PS3 numbers or the year after - 2019. But for sure I remember how we didn't had exact confirmed PS3 numbers since 2013 (the 80M announcement). And despite updating those in 2018 or 2019, they were still as of March 2017. So if this can be called update for the PS2 numbers, then it won't be their first one where it is done long after the console stopped selling (although with the PS3 it was just a year or two later, with PS2 is more than a decade). As for the other consoles, they just copy and pasted the information. They haven't updated the numbers. If they did they would update the PSP one's too, but they were again at 76M as of 2012. As far as Switch goes, it's over 144M by end of October.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 30 November 2024

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

Pinkie_pie said:
Phenomajp13 said:

Yes shilling for Sony because you blatantly left out Sony also said 155 million in 2018. I wonder why you would just leave that out your post. So I'll help you out. In 2018, Sony said the PS2 has sold 155.1 million as if March 2012 (apparently they underreported the PS2 because they obviously meant 160?). Now all of a sudden they (Sony and Jim Ryan) are so interested in telling the world it was 160 all along. So maybe I need to help you understand it is a financial crime for Sony or anyone to lie on those financial reports and this is because a shareholders can't reasonably make a decision to invest in your publicly traded company if you are lying on the reports to begin with. I say that because its not illegal for a prior employee (Jim Ryan) to lie in a podcast so this is why people said maybe he isn't lying and just rounded up because Sony themselves never reported this. Sony now is posting it on their site, which im honestly not sure if that would be a crime but i imagine yes so Sony is likely not lying however Sony not adjusting the date is very questionable. 

You have yet again tried to tell me my feelings, care as much as I do? Nintendo doesn't care but Sony certainly does because they cared to make the change.

Edit: You didn't really answer the question, when will it surpass 160? Or are you still holding hope?

I didn't know Sony said 155m in 2018. If they really did say it was at 155m in 2018 then why  did we have outside parties saying it was at 160m or near it for years. Even vgchartz had it at 159m. Btw I only read these numbers from posters on vgchartz. I dont remember I ever saw it as low as 155m. Surely there must be reasons for them to think it could be above 160m. Maybe Sony they didn't bother adjusting the number since 2012 or 2013 when it was at 155m. As to your question will Switch surpasses the PS2 and when. I have no idea and I don't care. Seriously I don't know when Nintendo releases their next console and when Nintendo phasing out the switch. Currently it's at 140m so I think the minimum it will do is 150m and could go as high as 170m if Nintendo don't phase out the switch until 2030? 

Ok and I will gladly explain it all. Sony reported as of March 31, 2012 the PS2 had sold 155.1 million but the PS2 was discontinued in December 2012/January 2013 which means the PS2 has around 10 months (April 2012 - Jaunary 2013) of sales missing. So yes we have always known the PS2 sold more but we don't know how much.

The estimates are based on what we know about all the other consoles along with Sony giving us an overall total for all PS hardware up to PS4 during their 500 million systems sold achievement. So we know how many systems Sony sold up until 2018 and Sony even gave us figures for individual platforms including the PS2's 155.1 million. So we simply minus what we know for the other Sony platfroms. The PS2 can't be higher than 162 million or else we start to cut into the other platforms, that's why Vita is getting lowered because we keep getting up to date numbers on everthing else.

The PS2 sold 4.1 million in its second to last fiscal year (April 2011 to March 2012) and this took it too 155.1 million. So in order to hit 160, it would need to sell atleast 4.9 million or in other words be up in its final year with two less months. I will admit that isn't unreasonable for a platform to get a boost in its final year because its about to be discontinued but its rare. If any system did it though, even I would say PS2 lol. I also need to mention how Sony loves to give 10 million updates, so Sony literally has 10 million, 20 million, 30 million, etc all the way up to 150 million sales updates for PS2. Sony still does this with PS5, they never announced 160 million update for PS2. 

I think that covers everything and now we have Sony adjusting that 155.1 as of March 2012 to over 160 million as of March 2012.



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XtremeBG said:
Pinkie_pie said:

I didn't know Sony said 155m in 2018. If they really did say it was at 155m in 2018 then why did we have outside parties saying it was at 160m or near it for years. Even vgchartz had it at 159m. Btw I only read these numbers from posters on vgchartz. I dont remember I ever saw it as low as 155m. Surely there must be reasons for them to think it could be above 160m. Maybe Sony they didn't bother adjusting the number since 2012 or 2013 when it was at 155m. As to your question will Switch surpasses the PS2 and when. I have no idea and I don't care. Seriously I don't know when Nintendo releases their next console and when Nintendo phasing out the switch. Currently it's at 140m so I think the minimum it will do is 150m and could go as high as 170m if Nintendo don't phase out the switch until 2030?

Sony said over 155M back in March 2012. This was the last update they did to the PS2 figures. The last official report. Of course since then It sold more. So the final number is more than 155M for sure. In 2018, as far as I remember they haven't updated the number, but just said 500M for all the PS consoles, and they just copy and paste the numbers from the last reports for most of their consoles (excluding the Vita). I am not sure if then was the time when we got the final PS3 numbers or the year after - 2019. But for sure I remember how we didn't had exact confirmed PS3 numbers since 2013 (the 80M announcement). And despite updating those in 2018 or 2019, they were still as of March 2017. So if this can be called update for the PS2 numbers, then it won't be their first one where it is done long after the console stopped selling (although with the PS3 it was just a year or two later, with PS2 is more than a decade). As for the other consoles, they just copy and pasted the information. They haven't updated the numbers. If they did they would update the PSP one's too, but they were again at 76M as of 2012. As far as Switch goes, it's over 144M by end of October.

Nice post but i see you trying to lower the Switch's figures to fit your desire. It's 146 million as of September 2024. 144 million as of October is an estimate, while my figures are facts that vgcharts adjust their figures to fit.



XtremeBG said:
Pinkie_pie said:

I didn't know Sony said 155m in 2018. If they really did say it was at 155m in 2018 then why did we have outside parties saying it was at 160m or near it for years. Even vgchartz had it at 159m. Btw I only read these numbers from posters on vgchartz. I dont remember I ever saw it as low as 155m. Surely there must be reasons for them to think it could be above 160m. Maybe Sony they didn't bother adjusting the number since 2012 or 2013 when it was at 155m. As to your question will Switch surpasses the PS2 and when. I have no idea and I don't care. Seriously I don't know when Nintendo releases their next console and when Nintendo phasing out the switch. Currently it's at 140m so I think the minimum it will do is 150m and could go as high as 170m if Nintendo don't phase out the switch until 2030?

Sony said over 155M back in March 2012. This was the last update they did to the PS2 figures. The last official report. Of course since then It sold more. So the final number is more than 155M for sure. In 2018, as far as I remember they haven't updated the number, but just said 500M for all the PS consoles, and they just copy and paste the numbers from the last reports for most of their consoles (excluding the Vita). I am not sure if then was the time when we got the final PS3 numbers or the year after - 2019. But for sure I remember how we didn't had exact confirmed PS3 numbers since 2013 (the 80M announcement). And despite updating those in 2018 or 2019, they were still as of March 2017. As for the other consoles, they just copy and pasted the information. They haven't updated the numbers. If they did they would update the PSP one's too, but they were again at 76M as of 2012. As far as Switch goes, it's over 144M by end of October.

Thanks for the information and clearing things up. I just read that 5m PS2 were sold in 2011 and that the PS2 was produced until early 2013. There were also new Fifa game released for PS2 in 2014. I don't think it's hard to believe they could ship another 5m since March 2012. It was very cheap and most of those 5m were probably sent to countries without huge economies and people were buying it up as soon as they heard it was discontinued. Also I'm gonna change my minimum number for the Switch from 150 to 155m since you told me it's at 144m not 140m.  



Phenomajp13 said:

Nice post but i see you trying to lower the Switch's figures to fit your desire. It's 146 million as of September 2024. 144 million as of October is an estimate, while my figures are facts that vgcharts adjust their figures to fit.

I am not lowering anything. My desires has nothing to do with the facts. 146M is shipped. We are talking sold here. And also I would like to work with the most up to date figures, not only reports per every 3 months of shipped units instead of sold. So I prefer sold units, and I prefer every month updates, not every 3 months. So at the end of October VGChartz has the Switch at SOLD units of over 144M. That's it. Those unit's till 146M are still not sold, so we will count them in when they are sold (probably with the data for this month - November). If Nintendo starts to give exact numbers after each month, and not every 3 months, and they are SOLD, then I will take their numbers. Either way it's basically the same, since in the end VGChartz numbers end up the same as the Switch. But the most accurate numbers up to the most recent point for sales is from here, not Nintendo shipping report from 2 months ago.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 30 November 2024

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX


PS2 : more than 155.1 million (as of march 31, 2012).
PS2 ending production (as of January 4th, 2013).
PS2+PS3 sales during FY2012 (1st april 2012 - march 31, 2013) : 16.5 million.
Sony has mentioned a significant decrease in unit sales of PS3 for this year but nothing for the PS2.
Now Sony confirm they sold more than 160 million LTD (which makes sense).

So how PS2 sales units during her last year (FY2012) ?

The most intelligent will easily find the answer :3



XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

Nice post but i see you trying to lower the Switch's figures to fit your desire. It's 146 million as of September 2024. 144 million as of October is an estimate, while my figures are facts that vgcharts adjust their figures to fit.

I am not lowering anything. My desires has nothing to do with the facts. 146M is shipped. We are talking sold here. And also I would like to work with the most up to date figures, not only reports per every 3 months of shipped units instead of sold. So I prefer sold units, and I prefer every month updates, not every 3 months. So at the end of October VGChartz has the Switch at SOLD units of over 144M. That's it. Those unit's till 146M are still not sold, so we will count them in when they are sold (probably with the data for this month - November). If Nintendo starts to give exact numbers after each month, and not every 3 months, and they are SOLD, then I will take their numbers. Either way it's basically the same, since in the end VGChartz numbers end up the same as the Switch. But the most accurate numbers up to the most recent point for sales is from here, not Nintendo shipping report from 2 months ago.

Sure buddy, you certainly don't have any alternative motives ;) but regardless vgchartz will adjust their figures to whatever Nintendo says just like they just did for Sony. So i need to adjust my prediction because you aren't very clear on what figures you are using. Vgchartz uses Nintendo, Sony, and the many other trackers to adjust their figures but you seem to only ever want to talk about vgchartz sellthrough for obvious reasons but I digress. 

I have to ask, if Nintendo ships 160 million Switch but vgchartz stops tracking Switch before it sells through the shipments, are you going to say it failed to hit 160 million?