Let me give my sales estimation by quarter:
End of 2024: 151 Million
March 31st 2025: 152.8 Million
June 30th 2025: 154.2 Million
September 30th 2025: 155.4 Million
December 31st 2025: 157.3 Million
March 31st 2026: 158 Million
June 30th 2026: 158.7 Million
September 30th 2026: 159.3 Million
December 31st 2026: 160.5 Million
So I'm thinking it will do it by the end of 2026, it should slowly cross to that total. I think if Nintendo tried even an ounce more it'll do it much faster and would guarantee it outsells the PS2, but i have a feeling Switch sales will drop off the cliff once Switch 2 launches since Switch 2 will be backwards compatible with all Switch 1 games and will likely be only 100-50$ more expensive than the OG Switch/Oled since I don't expect the OG Switch to get any price cuts, making most people rather spend only 50$ more for the Switch 2 that could play new games and all Switch 1 games as well.
I see the Switch's sales trajectory to fall closer in line to the DS's post 3DS price cut as opposed to the 3DS & GBA's post life sales. The lack of price difference between the DS & 3DS post price cut & 3DS's backwards compatibility killed the DS"s legs significantly, I expect a similar thing with the Switch but I still think it'll be enough to outsell the PS2.
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