You guys need to be careful with your Switch predictions, a lot of people here lowball it only to be showed up year after year. Some people here are as bad as that one Patcher guy or whatever at making predications.

Yikes at those PS5 numbers, that's genuinely terrible for a system in its prime.

Nah.

While it's doing better than 2018 right now, 2018 will crush 2024 during the holiday season. In 2018 during the last 7 weeks the Switch sold almost 1.5M consoles in Japan, while in 2023 it only sold 500k, and I don't think it will do much better than that this year.

The cliff™ is real!

It's just not the Switch falling - but it's pushing it's competition down the cliff™ one by one.

Top 30 software now up

Most of those PS5 games on the chart seem to have a pretty good hold WoW, which is unlike how PS5 software sold for its first few years.  It does look like software sales are starting to do decently just in time for hardware sales to plummet.

For me at least worldwide is bit more tricky given that Europe isn't pulling its weight in selling units.

But, I'll give it a go.

Japan so far has sold 721,867 units (assuming the famitsu numbers are correct). This is the most up-to-date number we got ending on Mar 31, 2024, and their Feb 3 numbers are 494,725.

Americas and Europe and RotW are a bit tricker given we only have up-to their Feb numbers. Europe as of Mar 2 are at 429,367. Americas as of Mar 2 are at 544,388. And RotW are at 305,086 as of Mar 2. For a total worldwide at 1,773,566.

JP: 27.89% of World total from Jan-Feb

RotW: 17.2% of World total from Jan-Feb

Europe should sell near or just below 200k for March and Americas will sell near 250k. And RotW should be near 140k. Considering that Japan sold 227,142 in March we can add it up to 817,434

From there we can speculate that the total for Q4 will be 2.59M.

Almost 2.6M for it's 8th Q4 on the market would be extremely impressive. It's third Q4 on the market was less than 2.5M and it's 4th Q4 was about 3.3M. The fact that the Switch is still pulling these kind of numbers is extremely telling of how likely Switch is to surpassing both the DS and PS2 in sales. 

Granted, the Switch IS slowing down and it's pretty likely sales will tank the second a successor is officially unveiled. But ending it's 8th FY at almost 142M and still going is a good sign Switch will surpass those two. 

Switch is truly experiencing the dream of a retirement. Barely dipping in it's 8th year over the last while being ahead against 2018 tally.

Can't say the same about the PS5, but hey, it just got good software releases at least.

Not a chance haha. It's keeping close now, but it will drop as the year progresses - very well may be no big games coming this year. Also this holiday season is going to be minuscule for Switch compared to 2018, last year it literally couldn't even hit 100k on a single holiday week.

Even if it is ahead of 2018 before the holidays, which seems likely, it'll probably drop like 800k against 2018 those last 6 weeks of the year. If it can average 50k/week rest of year before the holidays, which might be very optimistic cuz I'm guessing it'll probably be in the 30k's by the summer, that puts it at 2.322m before holidays, then let's say 80k/week 6 week holiday sales, that'd put it at 2.80m for the year, nearly 700k shy of 2018.

2.5m I think is pretty reasonable. (40k rest of year plus 6 weeks of 80k holidays would get it to 2.482m)

2.8m or maaaybe 2.9m is probably the most it can get unless they do a price cut. And getting this high would likely take a surprise launch of a major first party game which I doubt is gonna happen.

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In other news, Switch is now less than half a million from the Japan record!!

3.07 million last Jan to Mar quarter, a 25% worldwide drop would mean 2.3 million. I predict a slightly softer drop to 2.45 million.