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Slownenberg said:
Not a chance haha. It's keeping close now, but it will drop as the year progresses - very well may be no big games coming this year. Also this holiday season is going to be minuscule for Switch compared to 2018, last year it literally couldn't even hit 100k on a single holiday week. Even if it is ahead of 2018 before the holidays, which seems likely, it'll probably drop like 800k against 2018 those last 6 weeks of the year. If it can average 50k/week rest of year before the holidays, which might be very optimistic cuz I'm guessing it'll probably be in the 30k's by the summer, that puts it at 2.322m before holidays, then let's say 80k/week 6 week holiday sales, that'd put it at 2.80m for the year, nearly 700k shy of 2018. 2.5m I think is pretty reasonable. (40k rest of year plus 6 weeks of 80k holidays would get it to 2.482m) 2.8m or maaaybe 2.9m is probably the most it can get unless they do a price cut. And getting this high would likely take a surprise launch of a major first party game which I doubt is gonna happen. ----- In other news, Switch is now less than half a million from the Japan record!! |
You should check these pages out.
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/247930/japan-console-showdown-2024-march-31st-charts-updated/1/
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/247961/ultimate-console-showdown-2024-march-2nd/1/
Switch is doing very solid this year, even compared to PS5.
I expect the holiday to be near 85-90k in Japan (cant say much about Europe but itll be lower for sure, and the Americas will be about a 20% dip.)
Japan for 2024 has right now a bare bottom floor at 2.6M given the situation right now.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.
