Do you expect a late port on a machine that continuously is avoided by 3rd-parties to do the same instantly? Pretty fair releases without asterisks like Minecraft do well on Switch. But many games don't come from the start and others have a lot of asterisks. You should compare games without these asterisks, like Disgaea games, the Mana games, Octopath Traveler (ask how well it did on Xbox) and so on. Monster Hunter Rise did on Switch alone quite well compared to Monster Hunter World. Not the same exactly and geographical distribution was different (which is the much more interesting discussion to have), but overall good. Microsoft has said they will release CoD in the future. This is one of the reasons PS reaches 85% 3rd party (really, that number is made up of only a few game series). If MS does this release without asterisks, same day, we have another data point.

I haven't read the whole thread, but I feel that some of the assumptions based on the stats is a bit misleading. I'm not saying that SW consumers bought more 3rd party games than you think, I think that we also have to take into consideration that a majority of the AAA didn't come to Switch. Games like COD, GTAV, Madden, etc., have not come to Switch. And even if they finally do, like The Witcher 3, Bioshock, Nier Automata, Persona 5, etc., you have to take into consideration of how long it took to get those games from the time they initially released on PS4/Xbone/PC/etc. While these games were long requested, they've been in other consoles for years before and are at cheaper prices by then time they release on Switch. If they had released maybe a few months after they initially released on other consoles then maybe it would've been a fair comparison. But that's not realistic since the Switch released in 2017 and wasn't a proven console by the time games like Persona 5, Nier Automata, The Witcher 3, etc. were on store shelves. As we've seen with games like FIFA, NBA 2K, Atelier Ryza, etc., the Switch versions have done reasonably well when launched at the same time and date alongside the Xbox and PS versions.

If we go by the numbers and your understanding of what third parties think, do you think that we may not see as much third party games come to Switch 2? You think that games like Street Fighter VI, Tales of Arise, Tekken 8, Final Fantasy VII Remake, Resident Evil, Persona 3 Reload, etc. would not do well on Switch 2?

The main thing preventing those games to come or not to Switch 2 would be how much cuts would be necessary versus the regular version. If they can make a quick and cheap port they will most likely do, otherwise only for games that they expect to sell a lot (and that isn't that common unfortunately). But considering Switch 2 is coming mid gen for the other consoles it is possible that it will receive a good amount of titles since devs will expect the system to do similar as good as Switch.

I don't have my Switch by hand right now, but the vast majority of my games are NOT from Nintendo. In fact, only 3 (out of 50+) come to my mind right now: MK8DX, BotW and Game Builder Garage.

To be fair, most of my games are Indie titles, but it also contains bigger titles, like Mortal Kombat, Story of Seasons or Dragon Quest

^This. Comparing a years-late port of games like Witcher 3 or obviously watered down ports that advertise it as such right on the box like "Legacy Edition" FIFA is straight-up strawmanning. Compare the Switch to games it got day and date with other platforms like Mortal Kombat 11.

Speaking of, the Switch keeps getting every new MK, every  new NBA 2K, every new MLB The Show, and so on, whereas the Wii U did not. So clearly some big publishers are satisfied with their sales.

Dont these games have a lot of microtransactions in them? Might have something to do with why they continue to get released on Switch

Are there other big(ger) games who do the same but without the microtransactions?

Why does that matter? They're still big name games from big name publishers that past Nintendo consoles weren't getting.

Because of how companies decide which games are getting released on which system.

Microtransactions and the money that's made from them may be the sole reason why these games are still releasing at all.

Cut the MTXs and those games may have potentially never been released at all.

That can potentially tell you a lot about the probability of any given game X to release on the system

Well in that case, that means that they are selling decently enough and driving enough business to warrant being ported to Switch. If the audience wasn't there, then they wouldn't get ported.

All of those MTX-fests existed in the Wii U days, but outside of NBA 2K11, it wasn't getting those games.

NBA and MLB are mandated to be on all platforms from the license holder. And how do you expect a Switch port to not be watered down? Only if they released a watered down version for everyone.