It's okay to miss your predictions, we all make mistakes, but the thing is you have an opportunity here to learn from your mistakes. Several of your previous misses were the result of pitching the Switch too low. If you took that into account, you could increase your future success rate by adjusting your Switch forecasts upwards.

You are overexaggerating. Why I was not lowballing (your words, not mine) the switch sales for 2021 for example ? When I said 25M and it finished 24M ? So I have highball it. Japanese sales according to this site are a little less than 4.7M. I said around 4.5M so guess what ? I was off only by about less than 200k. So such a small difference can't be called lowballing. It's normal for someone to not be able to predict a number with exact hundreds of units to the point. That's why most of the time I give ranges.

I haven't said 30k, more likely 50k. Which it happened in the first part of the year. After that switch boosted out of nowhere. And yes, I know about the zelda, however it was not only because of it. Many people here wondered on the threads from what the continued boost in switch sales is coming. So congrats to switch but no one expected to maintain at some times even higher level of sales than last year. So you can't blame me here.

Now I am not making unrealistically low forecast, and it's not just 4M. Stop putting only the low possible numbers I have written every time. I said little over 4M which including numbers like 4.2M and even 4.3M. Also I am not saying it is impossible to do unexpectedly good sales and reach even 5M cuz as we all saw everything is possible, doesn't matter which year you are in system's life. But I personally think that the bigger percentage of the way things are going to happen will be that the system will finish a little less than it's 2022 sales, at a little over 4M.

My prediction from earlier in the year also wasn't 3M but 3.5M. And you can't blame me here too, cuz most of the people here predicted the same (decline from it's 2022 of at least 1M or more) and with the first months of the switch sales this year, it was normal.

Please read my last post. As I already said, I had only 1 slight miss which was less than 200k for 2022 japan sales of switch, which even most of the people do bigger misses than that, and they don't get attacked for it.

The other thing that didn't happen and that I can recall as my mistake (however it is not a direct sales prediction but more of stock relating one, so logistics category maybe ?) was not with the famous prediction itself (15 to 18M for 2022) but with the thing that I was almost sure - that there will be enough stock for the other consoles ( as yes my logic is still this that there are sales that when one console isnt there customers will get the other. Of course not all but at least some percent of them will ) And you will ask me now why is switch doing well this year with ps5 and xbox in full stock ? Well because if they weren't at full stock Switch would be with even better sales than they are now. But even with my condition not met back then, the Switch finished relatively close to my prediction I gave (19M, so I don't know why you all jumped on me like I said number that the final difference will be like 10M not 1M).

Other than that, my other predictions were all correct. As for this year, we will talk again when the year finishes. When Switch doing well I admire it. If you remember I had post some weeks ago congratulating the system, for the out of nowhere boost in the middle of the year there (in japan). You were saying I lowball the switch about my other correct predictions too. But what happened ? I was right. You are giving the 2022 sales of switch more than 4.7M and you were wrong. So maybe you are pitching it too high ? You were giving the switch sales 2021 more than 25M when there were the discussions (coming holiday period of 2021) But again you say nothing for this. You were highballing it. You said it will sell better than 19M even more than 20M for 2021. Guess what you were wrong for this too. So you are pitching it too high. Almost all the time. Not me lowballing it.

There's no need be so defensive; this isn't a personal attack on you, just a discussion on a video game forum. 

I even got offensive in my last part of the post. (see the edited post now)

But yes, you are right here. pardon me. I am just still affected of the 2021 summer debate where 10-20 people jumped on me for my then mad prediction (when the switch was on the way of making 25M that year, and I had 15 to 18M range prediction (with condition) and everyone jumped on the 15M number (which represented 10M difference (which I would never have in mind), and in the end I was way more closer (even without my condition met) than most of those people were for their predictions for 2022. Cuz I remember, there was predictions of reaching even 22-24M for the 2022 (so 5M off, and no one attacked those people, but mine was only 1M short) (again even without my condition met) and because I was the only one giving number more on the lower side, and everyone giving sky numbers reaching 24M, I was the bad one.

My month 1 of 2023 switch predictions was also about 3.5 million :x

I'm confused here though. "A little over 4 million" would mean 4.0X or 4.1. Which is not at all the same as "a little less than 2022 sales" which were 4.8 million. Little less than last year would be like ~4.65 to 4.7-high. You can't be both a little over 4 and a little less than 4.8 million, that's an enormous range. Saying "a little" does not mean a 400k range and you are using it twice to mean an 800k range. That's a non-prediction.

Anyway, I think most of us can see at this point that Switch is most likely gonna be at 4.4 or 4.5 million this year. 4.3 million is worst case scenario and fairly unlikely - would require a weaker rest of the year compared to the popularity we've seen since Zelda came out, with Mario Wonder coming that doesn't seem likely though something like 4.39 could happen. 4.6 million is best case scenario and also fairly unlikely - would require an fairly big boost from Mario OLED and Wonder and require the holidays to be as big as last year.

Depends on what is your understanding of little less. Mine is around 200-300k.

But if you want exact ranges than fine. Between 4M and 4.5M. The high one will be little less than 2022. The lower one will be little more than 4M. If I give exact number I may be 100k or 200k off and then everyone will jump on me, like always, but not jump on anybody else, again like always. So I am thinking somewhere between 4M and possibly 4.3. But again even if it goes to 4.5M I won't be too wrong or so much far from the reality as you are making it look like (with this discussion) Now if you want more exact one, I already said it - little over 4M, which can be 4.2 or 4.3M which again won't be much less than 2022' 4.69M but a tiny less, evenmore with keeping in mind that we are one year later in the lifecycle for the system.

And also stop watching famitsu 4.8M number. We are on VGcharts. The number here for the 2022 sales is 4.69M. You can interpret little less as even 0.2k if you want. I interpret it as a portion/percentage of the whole number. And for number of 4.69M or 4M for me little less/little more is around 200-300k.

However I can say other thing. I am little bit conservative with Switch's sales so late in it's lifecycle (watching how many other platfroms dropping too quickly in around this time, that I don't want to make too high predictions for it ending up wrong.) Of course with ease I can say 5M, because as it is doing till this moment, and if it is continuing it's pace till end of the year (which in one normal sales pace it would mean nice holiday boost matching 2022 or even 2021 holidays numbers, then of course it can reach even 5M without a problem.) I just doubt it will happen so late in it's lifecycle. Because other than only PS2 no other console has done it (I mean continues high sales, for years late in the lifecycle). And since it's the 2nd console ever making good sales after it's peak period (for longer period too) It is still under question for me (and many other I suppose) how long will it continue, and what drop will it have going forward.

So I am not saying it is impossible or something. I am just saying I see it happening more in the way of finishing little more than 4M, than finishing let's say 5M (as it I would truly predict if those sales were in the year 2019 let's say - before switch's peak, but if it did the exact same numbers till this moment.)

Depends on what is your understanding of little less. Mine is around 200-300k.

But if you want exact ranges than fine. Between 4M and 4.5M. The high one will be little less than 2022. The lower one will be little more than 4M. If I give exact number I may be 100k or 200k off and then everyone will jump on me, like always, but not jump on anybody else, again like always. So I am thinking somewhere between 4M and possibly 4.3. But again even if it goes to 4.5M I won't be too wrong or so much far from the reality as you are making it look like (with this discussion) Now if you want more exact one, I already said it - little over 4M, which can be 4.2 or 4.3M which again won't be much less than 2022' 4.69M but a tiny less, evenmore with keeping in mind that we are one year later in the lifecycle for the system.

And also stop watching famitsu 4.8M number. We are on VGcharts. The number here for the 2022 sales is 4.69M. You can interpret little less as even 0.2k if you want. I interpret it as a portion/percentage of the whole number. And for number of 4.69M or 4M for me little less/little more is around 200-300k.

However I can say other thing. I am little bit conservative with Switch's sales so late in it's lifecycle (watching how many other platfroms dropping too quickly in around this time, that I don't want to make too high predictions for it ending up wrong.) Of course with ease I can say 5M, because as it is doing till this moment, and if it is continuing it's pace till end of the year (which in one normal sales pace it would mean nice holiday boost matching 2022 or even 2021 holidays numbers, then of course it can reach even 5M without a problem.) I just doubt it will happen so late in it's lifecycle. Because other than only PS2 no other console has done it (I mean continues high sales, for years late in the lifecycle). And since it's the 2nd console ever making good sales after it's peak period (for longer period too) It is still under question for me (and many other I suppose) how long will it continue, and what drop will it have going forward.

So I am not saying it is impossible or something. I am just saying I see it happening more in the way of finishing little more than 4M, than finishing let's say 5M (as it I would truly predict if those sales were in the year 2019 let's say - before switch's peak, but if it did the exact same numbers till this moment.)

Sorry for the double posting. Please some moderator to delete one of my duplicated posts.