At this point absolute worst case scenario is probably 4.3m. That's with a solidly weaker holiday than last year and barely any boost for Mario OLED and Mario Wonder.

To end up only a little over 4m they'd have to have no holiday boost at all. Averaging 80k rest of the year gets to a little over 4m (4.044m). Basically if 6 weeks of holiday sales plus Mario OLED launch and Mario Wonder launch only did 90k each week, and the rest of the weeks only did 70k, you'd get a little over 4m.

The non-Holiday non-Mario weeks I'd guess will probably average more like 80k I think, while the two OLED and Wonder weeks let's say are probably like 100k, and the holiday weeks 140k gets all the way to 4.444m.

So 4.30m at this point would be getting abnormally weak sales all of a sudden for the rest of the year, a little over 4m isn't a possibility. 4.4 million is probably the most likely range, but if Mario weeks provide a bigger boost or if holiday is a bit stronger and nearly as strong as last year which is definitely a possibility since Switch has been outselling last year ever since Zelda OLED at end of April then even hitting 4.5m is in the cards. 4.6m is unlikely.

Didn't you predict the Switch would sell only 3M earlier this year? I feel like 4M is still a low-ball prediction when it's 500k above the DS's 2008 and the DS sold 4.2M that year.

Unless the Switch has basically no holiday boost Switch will probably end around 4.5M

No. My prediction was about 3.5M. Earlier when there were weeks of around 50k per week, one after another. And as it is normal for a console to dip in sales many expected to be down from last year with at least 1M. But with how unexpectedly well it is going now, I can see it breaking the 4M mark. And even if I was prediction 3M what ? Making predictions so late in a lifecycle and with sales anomalies like Switch has is a pure gamble. Everyone can change their prediction on the go. Switch doing almost the same as it's previous year so late in it's life is not normal. So It's normal for me to predict 3.5M this year comparing it to 4.7M last year. Consoles have seen much bigger drops in the past. How well or how bad switch will continue no one can tell for sure.

For the post above yours, well no I just expect sales to be around 60 to 70k weekly till end of october, and after that it may have some boost however not nearly what it was the previous years. And also little bit over 4M doest not mean only 20 or 30k more. For me little over 4M means 4.2M for example. Sure of course with continuing sales of 80k per week till october and decent holiday boost it should reach even 4.5M. However so late in it's life, and taking into account it normally have to be under it's last year, I doubt it passing 4.5M. But nothing is impossible.

You do have a habit of constantly lowballing the Switch. This time last year you were insisting its 2022 sales would be below 2019's.

Yo I went through the hassle of creating an account as I can't connect to my old account and I'm mostly a lurker here. 

Are you trying to tell us that, in a year in which the second biggest movie (in terms of box office) is the Super Mario Bros movie, with a 2D mario which sells hardcore to both gamers and ultra casual, with a Switch custom Mario dropping early october, without any knowledge of a promotion for Christmas (for example buy A switch and Wonder and get Mario Kart or whatever Nintendo could pull off) you are doubting the Switch passing 4.5 Millions? 

The Nintendo Switch will be the hottest item this Christmas with Barbie dolls. Nintendo could even release a very early teaser for the sequel to the Mario movie to get people hyped again. 

I'd bet, with the Chinese buying japanese Switch, we could all be low balling the Switch hardcore. There is a perfect storm of selling power for this end of year and the only way the Switch doesn't surprise us all is if Mario lost its selling power which won't be the case IMO. 

Lastly, the Switch is old enough that kids that were born or let's say babies when it was released are starting to get one. These may have seen the Mario movie. 

I know I'm high on hopium but I really think 4.7 to 5 Millions is possible and I also think that a massive worldwide boost in newly acquired switch could postpone the release plan of the Switch 2. 

Let's meet in December to review the data =) 

Japanese market sales are pretty skewed by systems being exported into China for both the Switch and PS5 especially. So I don't really look at YoY trends as holding as much weight as they normally would, you have a country with 10x the population next door and no one there wants to buy the Chinese versions of those consoles (for good reasons).

Great result for Armored Core 6 considering digital and PC growth. PC in Japan might be bigger now than Playstation, and continues to grow rapidly:

https://www.serkantoto.com/2023/08/30/japan-gaming-market-size/

2022 console software revenue = $2.7 billion (5.9% YoY growth)

2022 PC software revenue = $1.3 billion (43% YoY growth)

It's safe to say without digital + PC, Famitsu's retail rankings are becoming highly misleading if not worthless.

I am realist. And it's 2022 japan sales weren't so much ahead of 2019. So my prediction was only 200k wrong. However it's 2022 worldwide sales were below 2019 as I said it will be.

For a realist, you have a consistent pattern of lowballing the Switch. You underestimated it's Japanese sales for 2022, (by more than 300k actually by ShadowLink93's numbers) then early this year you underestimated it again by predicting that the baseline would fall to 30-40k during the middle of the year and end with 3-3.5m total, and now you're making another unrealistically low forecast of just 4m at its current pace and with a 2D Mario coming soon.

It seems as though you want the Switch to sell worse and base your predictions on what you want to happen.

Hey there is statements and facts for both of the sides lowball highball and realball if you want haha. Everyone can tell why and how the switch will reach 6M or will collapse and finish at 3M or finish somewhere in the middle. I am telling what I think because of it's age and the saturation point, and the way how the DS and other consoles selling well there and at one point out of nothing they just drop by a lot. Of course I can't say how and when will Switch end there. However I doubt if Switch will pass 2022 sales this year, and I think it will finish little over 4M and below 4.5M. Even if I am wrong it won't be by much. And even with this why is there so much noise about a prediction I am making ? I am sure that if every single user here makes a prediction, that at least half of those people will be argued how their prediction will be wrong. Well guess what, this is like gamble and you can't tell for sure what will turn out. Everyone in the beginning of the year didn't expected Switch to be so close to it's 2022 sales, so everyone should be wrong with this type of logic. And it is. So what ? Why quote only me and not everyone from the start of the year when they were telling sales considerably lower than 2019 for example ? This is to @curl-6  as well. and @curl-6 yes I have said many prediction before, and most of them have come true or very close to the exact number. And you may bring the famous 15M to 18M range prediction for 2022 here, well guess what Switch finished 19M so I was close enough, despite my prediction being obliged with the " if series and PS5 got full stock (which they don't in 2022). So I don't have prediction where I have been off. I have one that was disputable because I had condition on it, and even without the condition it finished close. And well the other ones were on the point. For example 2021 finishing not more than 25M, japan holidays prediction for the switch 2022 too I was on point, 2022 japan sales of switch which I was very close too. (it was so close there we can argue if it has to be called wrong or not) (of course I admit I was some 200k off there) And this year one's where I gave range between 12 and 16M which is on track too for the worldwide sales. But even if some of my prediction finished wrong they would be off only by a small margin. Not enough to make a dispute for my prediction, and not everyone else when they make ones. And enough for my predictions going ahead to be credible and taken into account.